Resolving Climate-related Mass Transport Trends—a Parameter Model Comparison using Closed-loop Simulations of Current and Future Satellite Gravity Missions

Resolving Climate-related Mass Transport Trends—a Parameter Model Comparison using Closed-loop Simulations of Current and Future Satellite Gravity Missions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Resolving Climate-related Mass Transport Trends—a Parameter Model Comparison using Closed-loop Simulations of Current and Future Satellite Gravity Missions Marius Schlaak, Roland Pail This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6322723/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Earth, Planets and Space → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The existing observation record of satellite gravity missions is already closing in on the minimum time series of 30 years needed to decouple natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms according to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The next generation of gravity field missions (GRACE-C, NGGM) are expected to be launched within this decade. These missions as well as their combination (MAGIC) are setting high anticipation for an enhanced monitoring capability that will improve the spatial and temporal resolution of gravity observations significantly. This study investigates and compares the performance of three different trend estimation strategies for the first time in multi-decadal numerical closed-loop simulations of satellite gravimetry constellations. The parameter models used in this study consist of monthly solutions ( \(\:{f}_{0}\) ), co-estimation of monthly and trend parameters ( \(\:{f}_{1}\) ), and the direct estimation of trend and annual amplitudes ( \(\:{f}_{2}\) ). The considered satellite constellations are a GRACE-type in-line single pair mission and a MAGIC double pair mission with realistic noise assumptions for the key payload, tidal and non-tidal background model errors. The gravity signal in the simulations is based on 30 years of modeled mass transport time series of components of the terrestrial water storage, obtained from future climate projections. Our results show the potential of MAGIC’s advanced observation system in estimating a long-term trend. After 10 years, the global rms of the trend estimates for the \(\:{f}_{0}\) parameter model improves from a single pair performance of 59.6 mm/yr to 1.2 mm/yr for MAGIC. Since all three parameter models show globally comparable results, further regional analysis is conducted dividing the world into 206 hydrological basins. Small basins and areas with low signal-to-noise ratio show small improvements in the residuals (e.g. 1mm/yr improvements in the residuals for single pair ( \(\:{f}_{2}\) ) compared to \(\:{f}_{0}\) after 10 years of observations). Furthermore, the regional analysis shows, that a significant number of basins show a higher signal-to-noise ratio compared to the global average. These basins would benefit from trend estimates of higher degree and order, which is possible by directly estimating the trend coefficients with \(\:{f}_{1}\) or \(\:{f}_{2}\) , but not with the trend estimation from monthly solutions ( \(\:{f}_{0}\) ). Satellite Gravimetry MAGIC NGGM Next Generation Gravity Mission Parameter model Closed-loop simulation Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Full Text Additional Declarations Table 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files Table1Residualsofmeanbasintrendestimates.docx GraphicalAbstract.png Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Earth, Planets and Space → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 09 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 08 Apr, 2025 Editorial decision: Minor Revision 08 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6322723","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":444678179,"identity":"8f33f187-eb1d-4a69-8c00-08b791a5f97e","order_by":0,"name":"Marius Schlaak","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCA2BSgrkByLSBsInUwgjSkiZBlBYGJC2HCWvRbT/78DDPHwZ7/tmNjR9+nDlfZ3DtAOOND3i0mJ1JNzjM28aQOOPOwWbJnhu3JQxuJzBbzsCn5UAaw2HeBoYEA4nEBgmeD2AtbNI8+LScf8YAdhhQS/PPPx/OQbT8waflBtAWHjYGxg0SiW3SPDcOQLTg877ZjWcMB+e2SSTOuJHYZi1zJlly5u3EZssevA5LY/7w5o+NPf+M5MM33xyz4+e7nXzwxg981kAASkSAImgUjIJRMApGAUUAAGv/U67wkI7JAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-1274","institution":"Technical University of Munich: Technische Universitat Munchen","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marius","middleName":"","lastName":"Schlaak","suffix":""},{"id":444678180,"identity":"216c4e19-285f-47ce-a3ae-e7414271125f","order_by":1,"name":"Roland Pail","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"TUM: Technische Universitat 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11:05:40","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":16661,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Table1Residualsofmeanbasintrendestimates.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6322723/v1/5ecb9f8dfdb1a590fdc09741.docx"},{"id":81373556,"identity":"8805c6da-386f-44a6-b5ab-64431d6eb804","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-25 11:05:40","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":741025,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"GraphicalAbstract.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6322723/v1/c0ddd45fae7977ae9a00fbdb.png"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eTable 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eResolving Climate-related Mass Transport Trends—a Parameter Model Comparison using Closed-loop Simulations of Current and Future Satellite Gravity Missions\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"earth-planets-and-space","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"epsp","sideBox":"Learn more about [Earth, Planets and Space](http://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/epsp/default.aspx","title":"Earth, Planets and Space","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Satellite Gravimetry, MAGIC, NGGM Next Generation Gravity Mission, Parameter model, Closed-loop simulation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6322723/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6322723/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe existing observation record of satellite gravity missions is already closing in on the minimum time series of 30 years needed to decouple natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms according to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The next generation of gravity field missions (GRACE-C, NGGM) are expected to be launched within this decade. These missions as well as their combination (MAGIC) are setting high anticipation for an enhanced monitoring capability that will improve the spatial and temporal resolution of gravity observations significantly.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study investigates and compares the performance of three different trend estimation strategies for the first time in multi-decadal numerical closed-loop simulations of satellite gravimetry constellations. The parameter models used in this study consist of monthly solutions (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{0}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e), co-estimation of monthly and trend parameters (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{1}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e), and the direct estimation of trend and annual amplitudes (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e). The considered satellite constellations are a GRACE-type in-line single pair mission and a MAGIC double pair mission with realistic noise assumptions for the key payload, tidal and non-tidal background model errors. The gravity signal in the simulations is based on 30 years of modeled mass transport time series of components of the terrestrial water storage, obtained from future climate projections.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOur results show the potential of MAGIC\u0026rsquo;s advanced observation system in estimating a long-term trend. After 10 years, the global rms of the trend estimates for the \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{0}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e parameter model improves from a single pair performance of 59.6 mm/yr to 1.2 mm/yr for MAGIC. Since all three parameter models show globally comparable results, further regional analysis is conducted dividing the world into 206 hydrological basins. Small basins and areas with low signal-to-noise ratio show small improvements in the residuals (e.g. 1mm/yr improvements in the residuals for single pair (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) compared to \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{0}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e after 10 years of observations). Furthermore, the regional analysis shows, that a significant number of basins show a higher signal-to-noise ratio compared to the global average. These basins would benefit from trend estimates of higher degree and order, which is possible by directly estimating the trend coefficients with \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{1}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e or \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, but not with the trend estimation from monthly solutions (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{f}_{0}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Resolving Climate-related Mass Transport Trends—a Parameter Model Comparison using Closed-loop Simulations of Current and Future Satellite Gravity Missions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-25 11:05:35","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6322723/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-04-24T02:33:21+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-18T05:27:15+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-04-09T11:39:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Earth, Planets and Space","date":"2025-04-09T03:57:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"decision","content":"Minor Revision","date":"2025-04-09T02:56:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"earth-planets-and-space","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"epsp","sideBox":"Learn more about [Earth, Planets and Space](http://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/epsp/default.aspx","title":"Earth, Planets and Space","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"a5ce0348-9b89-4e98-b497-7ce0d77e29df","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 25th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-07T15:59:04+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6322723","link":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-025-02239-0","journal":{"identity":"earth-planets-and-space","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Earth, Planets and Space"},"publishedOn":"2025-07-01 15:56:52","publishedOnDateReadable":"July 1st, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-25 11:05:35","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1186/s40623-025-02239-0","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-025-02239-0","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6322723","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6322723","identity":"rs-6322723","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}