SARS-CoV-2 Variants are Selecting for Spike Protein Mutations that Increase Protein Stability

ABSTRACT The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has caused severe disruption and a huge number of human deaths across the globe. As the pandemic spreads, a natural result is the emergence of variants with a variety of amino acid mutations. Variants of SARS-CoV-2 with mutations in their spike protein may result in an increased infectivity, increased lethality, or immune escape, and whilst many of these properties can be explained through changes to binding affinity or changes to post-translational modification, many mutations have no known biophysical impact on the structure of protein. The Gibbs free energy of a protein represents a measure of protein stability, with an increased stability resulting in a protein that is more thermodynamically stable, and more robust to changes in external environment. Here we show that mutations in the spike proteins of SARS-CoV-2 are selecting for amino acid changes that result in a more stable protein than expected by chance. We calculate all possible mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, and show that many variants are more stable than expected when compared to the background, indicating that protein stability is an important consideration for the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Variants exhibit a range of stabilities, and we further suggest that some stabilising mutations may be acting as a “counterbalance” to destabilising mutations that have other properties, such as increasing binding site affinity for the human ACE2 receptor. We suggest that protein folding calculations offer a useful tool for early identification of advantageous mutations.