The Relationship Between Structured Analytic Techniques and Intelligence Analysis Quality: Evidence from Content Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) are intended to improve the rigour and transparency of intelligence analysis. This study conducted a content analysis of 138 reports from experiments simulating intelligence community (IC) conditions. The reports were scored for adherence to IC norms and accuracy, which correlated weakly. The techniques of Standardizing Probability Ranges and Timeline positively predicted IC norm adherence, as did the number of unique techniques in a report. No techniques reliably predicted accuracy, nor did the number of techniques used, likely due to low power. The results suggest that SATs have small positive correlations with IC norm adherence that compound.