Recurrence analysis on slow slip events in Japan using renewal processes

Recurrence analysis on slow slip events in Japan using renewal processes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Recurrence analysis on slow slip events in Japan using renewal processes Keisuke Yano, Masayuki Kano, Takane Hori, Keisuke Ariyoshi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8458075/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract SSEs are closely linked to megathrust earthquakes, as they occur near seismically locked zones and can perturb stress conditions along plate boundaries. Understanding their timing is therefore crucial for assessing seismic hazards. This study investigates the recurrence intervals of slow slip events (SSEs) at four regions in Japan: Kii peninsula, Yaeyama islands, Boso peninsula, and Bungo Channel. Using renewal processes based on the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Gamma model as well as the moment method, the study estimates the mean recurrence intervals and their coefficients of variation (the standard deviation divided by the mean) along with the estimation uncertainties in each region. Final estimated mean recurrence intervals are 0.96 years (Kii), 0.51 years (Yaeyama), 3.97 years (Boso), and 3.16 years (Bungo) for all methods. Coefficients of variation reflecting event periodicity in the four regions (0.42-0.46, 0.25-0.40, 0.44-0.54, 0.26-0.28) suggest that SSEs are quasi-periodic, being neither completely deterministic nor highly random. Compared to earthquakes with recurrent patterns of occurrence, which are typically less sensitive to small stress changes, SSEs generally exhibit higher variability in the recurrence, suggesting greater sensitivity to external perturbations. However, Bungo SSEs, with higher stress drops, exhibit lower variability, indicating more stable recurrence. The bootstrap analysis also confirmed regional characteristics. In Kii, SSEs occurring at the intermediate area, with the distance from the Nankai Trough axis to the fault center is approximately 25–36 km, show greater timing variability. In Yaeyama, recurrence appears linked to slip size, suggesting time-predictable behavior. In Boso, the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake likely influenced SSE timing. In Bungo, the unique 2014 SSE, possibly affected by the Tohoku-oki event, was highlighted. In addition, the study performs predictive model comparisons for the baseline renewal process and a retrospective predictability analysis for all the regions, and provides forecasts of the next SSE in the Kii region along with prediction intervals for its occurrence time. Seismology Bootstrap analysis Brownian Passage Time distribution Gamma distribution Recurrence intervals Slow slip events Widely-Applicable Information Criterion Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8458075","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":569924162,"identity":"7941aa05-ffb5-4c53-9aed-1142ac958533","order_by":0,"name":"Keisuke Yano","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCDwZQhgSxOhhnkKyFmYcUJzEYHD978LFNQV00A/vhBwyWO4jRciYv2TjH4HBuA0+aAYPkGWK0HMgxk84xOJDbwJDDwCDZRoyW82/MpC0M6nIb+N8Qq+UG0BYGA+bcBglibZG88cbYsAfolzaJZwYHiPIL3/kcwwc//tTl9vMnP3wsSUyIKRyAMtiA+LBkAxFa5JEVMX4kRssoGAWjYBSMOAAArDYy3skVBMcAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"The Institute of Statistical Mathematics","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Keisuke","middleName":"","lastName":"Yano","suffix":""},{"id":569924163,"identity":"cc4f2511-9ec5-4903-91d0-a3826fe74c32","order_by":1,"name":"Masayuki Kano","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kyoto University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Masayuki","middleName":"","lastName":"Kano","suffix":""},{"id":569924164,"identity":"a3dfb3ff-c76d-4571-81e6-53ad458c06e4","order_by":2,"name":"Takane Hori","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Takane","middleName":"","lastName":"Hori","suffix":""},{"id":569924165,"identity":"e9ca6740-0bbd-4b5b-aa45-da78681662a7","order_by":3,"name":"Keisuke Ariyoshi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Keisuke","middleName":"","lastName":"Ariyoshi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-27 01:55:51","currentVersionCode":2,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8458075/v2","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8458075/v2","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100357472,"identity":"12f4cf07-6ad9-4d57-a075-09696f891d67","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:19:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":5915221,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SSEforecastv2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8458075/v2_covered_4be1b5cd-678c-43da-b7ec-bb819a44c4c9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"Recurrence analysis on slow slip events in Japan using renewal processes","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Bootstrap analysis, Brownian Passage Time distribution, Gamma distribution, Recurrence intervals, Slow slip events, Widely-Applicable Information Criterion","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8458075/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8458075/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSSEs are closely linked to megathrust earthquakes, as they occur near seismically locked zones and can perturb stress conditions along plate boundaries. Understanding their timing is therefore crucial for assessing seismic hazards. This study investigates the recurrence intervals of slow slip events (SSEs) at four regions in Japan: Kii peninsula, Yaeyama islands, Boso peninsula, and Bungo Channel. Using renewal processes based on the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Gamma model as well as the moment method, the study estimates the mean recurrence intervals and their coefficients of variation (the standard deviation divided by the mean) along with the estimation uncertainties in each region. Final estimated mean recurrence intervals are 0.96 years (Kii), 0.51 years (Yaeyama), 3.97 years (Boso), and 3.16 years (Bungo) for all methods.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCoefficients of variation reflecting event periodicity in the four regions (0.42-0.46, \u0026nbsp;0.25-0.40, 0.44-0.54, 0.26-0.28) suggest that SSEs are quasi-periodic, being neither completely deterministic nor highly random.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCompared to earthquakes with recurrent patterns of occurrence, which are typically less sensitive to small stress changes, SSEs generally exhibit higher variability in the recurrence, suggesting greater sensitivity to external perturbations. However, Bungo SSEs, with higher stress drops, exhibit lower variability, indicating more stable recurrence.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe bootstrap analysis also confirmed regional characteristics. In Kii, SSEs occurring at the intermediate area, with the distance from the Nankai Trough axis to the fault center is approximately 25–36 km, show greater timing variability. In Yaeyama, recurrence appears linked to slip size, suggesting time-predictable behavior. In Boso, the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake likely influenced SSE timing. In Bungo, the unique 2014 SSE, possibly affected by the Tohoku-oki event, was highlighted. In addition, the study performs predictive model comparisons for the baseline renewal process and a retrospective predictability analysis for all the regions, and provides forecasts of the next SSE in the Kii region along with prediction intervals for its occurrence time.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Recurrence analysis on slow slip events in Japan using renewal processes","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":2,"date":"2026-01-08 19:53:31","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8458075/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-06 04:06:35","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8458075/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5134b37a-6e68-4191-bc42-1f432e7c2083","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 8th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":60641582,"name":"Seismology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-06T04:06:35+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-08 19:53:31","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v2","identity":"rs-8458075","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8458075","identity":"rs-8458075","version":["v2"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}