Modifiable lifestyle factors and severe COVID-19 risk: Evidence from Mendelian randomization analysis

Background Lifestyle factors including obesity and smoking are suggested to be related to increased risk of COVID-19 severe illness or related death. However, little is known about whether these relationships are causal, or the relationships between COVID-19 severe illness and other lifestyle factors, such as alcohol consumption and physical activity. Methods Genome-wide significant genetic variants associated with body mass index (BMI), lifetime smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity identified by large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were selected as instrumental variables. GWAS summary statistics of these genetic variants for relevant lifestyle factors and severe illness of COVID-19 were obtained. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted. Results Both genetically predicted BMI and lifetime smoking were associated with about 2-fold increased risks of severe respiratory COVID-19 and COVID-19 hospitalization (all P<0.05). Genetically predicted physical activity was associated with about 5-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4, 20.3; P=0.02) decreased risk of severe respiratory COVID-19, but not with COVID-19 hospitalization, though the majority of the 95% CI did not include one. No evidence of association was found for genetically predicted alcohol consumption, but associations were found when using pleiotropy robust methods. Conclusion Evidence is found that BMI and smoking causally increase and physical activity causally decreases the risk of COVID-19 severe illness. This study highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle in protecting from COVID-19 severe illness and its public health value in fighting against COVID-19 pandemic.