Climate Trends and Future Projections: Analyzing Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the Guwahati Region.

Abstract The climatic dynamics of the Guwahati region have been scrutinized through a comprehensive analysis of precipitation and temperature trends. Historical precipitation data from IMD (1990-2014) and CMIP6 projections (2015-2050) under diverse scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) were employed, revealing a positive trend in precipitation. The monsoon trend analysis underscored seasonal variations, portraying a nuanced picture of potential shifts in rainfall patterns during June, July, August, and September. On the temperature front, annual analyses for maximum and minimum temperatures, utilizing ERA5 data (1990-2014) and CMIP6 projections, identified the hottest and coolest years. For instance, the CanESM5 model projected a maximum temperature of 40.03°C under SSP126 in 2043. The statistical analyses, particularly the Mann-Kendall test and p-values, provided robust measures of the trends' significance, offering a quantitative basis for decision-making. In conclusion, the region exhibits a positive precipitation trend with implications for water resource management and ecological sustainability. The identification of extreme temperature values aids in anticipating potential challenges associated with climatic variations. Statistical significance values enhance the reliability of findings, contributing to informed decision-making for adaptive strategies in the face of an evolving climate. These insights are vital for fostering resilience and sustainable development in the Guwahati region.