A sustainable transition to electric minibus taxis in Cape Town’s paratransit

A sustainable transition to electric minibus taxis in Cape Town’s paratransit | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis A sustainable transition to electric minibus taxis in Cape Town’s paratransit MJ Booysen, Brendan Pretorius, Joshua Sello This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7548687/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 13 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Paratransit is the dominant mode of public mobility in sub-Saharan Africa, yet its electrification has remained largely absent from sustainability debates. Using high-resolution tracking data from 671 minibus taxis in Cape Town’s Blue Dot programme, we evaluate the feasibility, energy system impacts, and environmental outcomes of transitioning this sector to electric vehicles. We show that electrification is technically viable under current mobility patterns, provided that both depot and home charging are available, while fast charging adds little additional benefit. However, charging introduces pronounced evening load peaks that coincide with existing grid stress, underscoring the importance of managed charging strategies and expanded renewable supply. Electrification does not immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions under South Africa’s coal-heavy grid, but it does eliminate tailpipe particulate matter, with significant implications for urban health. Equity considerations are central: drivers and operators with less access to home charging face lower viability and greater disruption. Our findings demonstrate that informal and combustion-based paratransit systems are not beyond the reach of energy transition strategies. With the right infrastructure and planning, electrification of African paratransit can deliver cleaner air and lay the foundations for a just and sustainable mobility transition. Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks Physical sciences/Engineering/Civil engineering Physical sciences/Engineering/Electrical and electronic engineering Electric vehicle Minibus taxi Paratransit Charging infrastructure Grid impact Mobility Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 13 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7548687","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":522707251,"identity":"d3f7fb13-2c90-49e5-91eb-c510949f359d","order_by":0,"name":"MJ Booysen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCM1CavYFkLTwHiNbCA6UlEojUoNt49uCDj211cuaSz59JFzDYyTPwH36AV4vZgXPJhjPbDhtbzs4xk57BkGzYwHDMgICWM2bSvG0HEjfczmGT5mFgTmBgbCBKS139hpvHnwG11CcwMLN/IEYLc4LBDQYzoJbDCQxsPIRsAfplxrnDhhvO5Bhb8xgcN2zj4SnAr+UGMMQ+lNXJGxw//vA2T0W1PD//8Q14tTBIHGBgYGSD8YBOYsOjGAL4G4DEH4LKRsEoGAWjYCQDAHngQzf1hpCoAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2817-2069","institution":"Stellenbosch University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"MJ","middleName":"","lastName":"Booysen","suffix":""},{"id":522707252,"identity":"03dc508c-6de4-4890-a35a-6ffd129da989","order_by":1,"name":"Brendan Pretorius","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stellenbosch University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brendan","middleName":"","lastName":"Pretorius","suffix":""},{"id":522707253,"identity":"16c4349d-d227-4759-ba89-6991499b1423","order_by":2,"name":"Joshua Sello","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stellenbosch University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joshua","middleName":"","lastName":"Sello","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-06 06:10:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7548687/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7548687/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01808-9","type":"published","date":"2026-04-13T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106854807,"identity":"efb7bb6a-b431-473c-b622-8b537a5433a3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-14 07:14:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":743021,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Bluedotpaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7548687/v1_covered_06362373-654e-401a-8d17-39142ea78196.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"A sustainable transition to electric minibus taxis in Cape Town’s paratransit","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Electric vehicle, Minibus taxi, Paratransit, Charging infrastructure, Grid impact, Mobility","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7548687/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7548687/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Paratransit is the dominant mode of public mobility in sub-Saharan Africa, yet its electrification has remained largely absent from sustainability debates. 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