Wildfire Risk Assessment in Ambato, Ecuador: Drought Impacts, Fuel Dynamics, and Urban–Wildland Interface Vulnerability

Wildfires represent an increasing threat to ecosystems and communities, driven by climate change, ecological dynamics, and human activities. In Ambato, Ecuador, a city in the Andean highlands, these risks are exacerbated by prolonged droughts, urban expansion into fire-prone areas, and socio-economic vulnerabilities. This study integrates climatic, ecological, and socio-economic data to assess wildfire risks, employing advanced geospatial tools, thematic mapping, and machine learning models, including Multinomial Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost. By segmenting the study area into 1 km² grid cells, micro-scale risk variations were captured, enabling classification into five categories: 'Very Low', 'Low', 'Moderate', 'High', and 'Very High.' Results indicate that temperature anomalies, vegetation desiccation, and human-induced factors such as waste burning and land-use changes significantly influence fire susceptibility. Predictive models achieved accuracies above 76%, effectively identifying high-risk zones and informing targeted interventions. Findings emphasize the urgent need for enhanced land-use regulations, improved firefighting infrastructure, and community-driven prevention strategies. This research provides a replicable framework for wildfire risk assessment, applicable to other Andean regions and beyond. By integrating data-driven methodologies with policy recommendations, this study contributes to evidence-based wildfire mitigation and resilience planning in climate-sensitive environments.