The Resource–Growth Nexus in ASEAN and South Asia: Spatial Dependence and Regional Heterogeneity

The Resource–Growth Nexus in ASEAN and South Asia: Spatial Dependence and Regional Heterogeneity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Resource–Growth Nexus in ASEAN and South Asia: Spatial Dependence and Regional Heterogeneity Tennyson Pangambam This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7633198/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines the resource–growth nexus in the ASEAN and South Asia regions through a spatial econometric framework. Building on the resource curse–blessing debate, I use annual panel data for fifteen countries spanning from 1996 to 2021. The baseline specification uses a pooled OLS regression with GDP per capita growth as the dependent variable and natural resource rents, foreign direct investment, trade, and population growth as explanatory variables. To capture cross-border interdependencies often overlooked in conventional models, I extend the analysis by using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with a k-nearest neighbour spatial weights matrix (k = 2). This allows identification of both direct domestic effects and indirect spatial spillovers effects. The pooled regression finds a negative impact of natural resource rents on economic growth, consistent with the resource curse hypothesis. The SDM confirms and strengthens this evidence by revealing significant negative spatial spillovers: increases in resource dependence in one country reduce growth both domestically and in neighbouring economies. Overall, across multiple model specifications, the findings provide robust evidence in support of the resource curse hypothesis for the combined ASEAN and South Asia sample. Further, regional heterogeneity is also evident. ASEAN countries exhibit a strong resource curse with negative domestic and cross-border effects, while South Asia shows signs of a resource blessing domestically but without significant spatial spillovers. Population growth exerts consistently negative effects across specifications. The results underscore the importance of managing resources within a spatially interdependent regional context with policy implications for cooperative resource governance, diversification strategies, and demographic management. Environmental Economics Econometrics Development Economics resource-growth nexus spatial spillovers resource curse ASEAN South Asia spatial Durbin model Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7633198","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":516109022,"identity":"80ffc38e-bc9f-44f1-9d92-a8bded00f6e3","order_by":0,"name":"Tennyson Pangambam","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBklEQVRIie2PsUrEMBzGrwq95f8APYr4ClcLwaG0D+LSELhbqk9wQ5w6uVfwFW7NHAh0ipc1cg49BKcOvc1JTDyHLm0dBfMbEj74fnz8ZzOH48/CuX295viZ2P+ej5Whp5xHlb+yCv214ofgi1MeU7L5Q/0G8hVvy+d6UYFKt6UwK5vkZnAFdusY9Dtm8o5cd8GeMImNUq9u6ZASFCiETmDGi+ilWu4J4kbxqBhWLtsfRbXLEPIdQeowoQRgFG0UXVyFwHmK9NSKLNDiSYqY6TaOHinJkTYr+cgt81KioK3FBVNF1BxpmiG1PjTdJhlULGfQC/i7mY/ULd5HL2QTZYfD4fiHfAF9HG1t3J6WNgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-5314-8778","institution":"Manipur University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tennyson","middleName":"","lastName":"Pangambam","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-16 18:34:00","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7633198/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7633198/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91656540,"identity":"fcc28d14-e7d8-48ce-9f99-3b7006298e21","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-18 18:18:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":482468,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7633198/v1_covered_558fa978-90df-45e8-9005-ee8ec2c32aa6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eThe Resource–Growth Nexus in ASEAN and South Asia: Spatial Dependence and Regional Heterogeneity\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"resource-growth nexus, spatial spillovers, resource curse, ASEAN, South Asia, spatial Durbin model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7633198/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7633198/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper examines the resource\u0026ndash;growth nexus in the ASEAN and South Asia regions through a spatial econometric framework. Building on the resource curse\u0026ndash;blessing debate, I use annual panel data for fifteen countries spanning from 1996 to 2021. The baseline specification uses a pooled OLS regression with GDP per capita growth as the dependent variable and natural resource rents, foreign direct investment, trade, and population growth as explanatory variables. To capture cross-border interdependencies often overlooked in conventional models, I extend the analysis by using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with a k-nearest neighbour spatial weights matrix (k\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2). This allows identification of both direct domestic effects and indirect spatial spillovers effects. The pooled regression finds a negative impact of natural resource rents on economic growth, consistent with the resource curse hypothesis. 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