How do High-Quality Higher Education Opportunities Affect Couples’ Fertility Decisions？

Abstract In China, there are significant and enduring inter-provincial disparities in access to high-quality higher education, particularly in regards to admission to elite universities. The estimation results of this paper show that high-quality higher education opportunities significantly increase couples’ likelihood of having children. This effect is limited to the 985-Project university admission opportunities, while the 211-Project university admission opportunities do not have a significant effect on couples’ fertility rate increase. Compared to couples with a low chance of their child’s admission to a 985-Project university, those with a high chance are 4.2% more likely to have children. Unequal educational opportunities can lead to weaker inter-generational income mobility and lower returns to fertility for couples, which in turn suppress fertility. JEL: J13; I21; I28