Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis for Transformation of Polish Power Generation Sector

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Foo, Raymond R. Tan, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4817694/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Poland is taking serious measures to decarbonize its electricity generation sector by year 2050 in response to the global climate emergency. However, the pathway to reach this carbon neutrality target is still uncertain, given Poland’s current dependence on fossil fuels. Different decarbonization measures need to be examined and combined to achieve substantial reductions. In this work, carbon emission pinch analysis (CEPA) is used to plan and visualize deep emissions cuts for such a transition. Multiple scenarios were proposed in order for Polish energy generation sector to reach its CO 2 emission targets in years 2030 and 2040. For instance, in Scenario 1, relative to 2022, coal was reduced by 36 times, and lignite was eliminated completely; while natural gas, onshore wind, agricultural biomass, photovoltaics have huge increase (238%, 154%, 235%, 301%, respectively), apart from having additional nuclear and offshore wind power (38 TWh and 61 TWh, respectively). Doing this achieves the 2040 emission target of 28.06 Mt CO 2 -eq/year. These results provide realistic benchmarks for the development and implementation of policies to realize Poland’s decarbonization ambitions. Process integration CO2 reduction Renewable energy decarbonization Net zero Climate change Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 1. Introduction The Paris Agreement ratified by 196 countries in 2015 has the aim to cap global warming by the end of the 21st Century to well below 2°C, and preferably closer to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Doing so will require carbon neutrality by mid-century and negative emissions beyond that time. Despite this development, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to increase in the past few years. Extreme weather incidents are reported in various parts of the world on a regular basis, which is believed to be the result of climate change. The atmospheric concentration of the most important GHG, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), has exceeded 420 ppm at early year 2023 (Scripps Institution of Oceanography 2023 ), which is well above the safe Planetary Boundary of 350 ppm (Rockström et al. 2009 ; Steffen et al. 2015 ). Hence, serious efforts are necessary to ensure the decelerate the growth of GHG emissions, and then reverse the trend towards the net zero emission target in the span of one human generation. The European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS), which is a cap-and-trade carbon market system, remains one of the main mechanism for reducing CO 2 emissions. By gradually reducing the number of emission allowances and increasing their price, the EU ETS enforces emission reduction. By the end of year 2023, the EU ETS only covered sectors that are easiest in its modification, i.e., power and heat generation, as well as energy-intensive industrial plants. The long-term goal is for the EU to achieve climate neutrality by year 2050. In order to achieve this important objective, the European Commission pushed through the “Fit for 55” plan, which assumes an acceleration of emission reduction to 55% by 2030 (as compared to 1990 level). In April 2023, the European Parliament voted to extend the EU ETS to the air and maritime transport sectors. The process of reducing free allowances for aviation is gradual and will be completed in 2026. After 2026, airlines will have to buy 100% of emission allowances at auction prices (European Parliament 2023 ). Another measure aimed at reducing emissions by 55% was the inclusion of construction and land transport in the EU ETS system. According to data presented at the World Economic Forum, the construction and operation of buildings are responsible for 38% of global CO 2 emissions (World Economic Forum 2022 ). Among these, 28% of the emissions come from the operation of buildings, while the remaining 10% are due to energy consumption needed to produce materials and technologies used for the construction industry. Therefore, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union reached an agreement in December 2022 on the creation of a separate ETS2 system for the transport and buildings sectors from year 2027 (International Carbon Action Partnership 2022 ). The EU policy on CO 2 emissions is flexible and adapted to the current political and economic situation. The war in Eastern Europe made it necessary to change fuel sources to ensure energy security. For this reason, the “REPowerEU” plan was introduced, with the goal to end EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels, and to tackle climate crisis. The REPowerEU plan focuses specifically on energy savings, diversification of energy supply and accelerated deployment of renewable energy (European Commision 2022 ). Various models and decision support tools have been developed for better management of CO 2 emissions. One such technique is carbon emission pinch analysis (CEPA). In the seminal work of CEPA (Tan and Foo 2007 ), a graphical technique was introduced for the optimum allocation of energy sources to their demand, subject to maximum CO 2 emissions limit at each regions/sectors. An equivalent tool based on algebraic technique was later introduced by (Foo et al. 2008 ) to allow the procedure to be implemented using spreadsheet models. CEPA has become an established tool for carbon management research. Textbook comprehensive tutorial on CEPA can be found in a recent book (Foo and Tan 2020 ). The technique has shown its applications in many countries, such as China (Li et al. 2016 ), India, European Union (Su et al. 2020 ), United Kingdom (Cossutta et al. 2021 ), Baltic States (Baležentis et al. 2019 ), Nigeria (Salman et al. 2019 ), Trinidad and Tobago (Ramsook et al. 2022 ), Bangladesh (Tarequzzaman et al. 2024), to name a few. Poland aims to achieve net zero emission by 2050, inline with the rest of the European Union (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2024 ). However, no official plan has been announced on how to achieve this net zero target to date. The path towards net zero is particularly challenging for Poland due to its dependency on fossil fuels. In particular, coal and lignite still account for 72.3% of its gross electricity mix (Dusiło 2023a ). The gap between the net zero goal and the current state of the energy system presents a daunting challenge for both policymakers and researchers. Systematic decision support tools can potentially provide insights for planning a viable decarbonization roadmap for Poland. Hence, CEPA may be used to provide insights on potential decarbonization strategies of Polish energy generation sector, which is the focus of this work. The paper is structured as follows. In the following section, the current state of Polish energy generation sector will be discussed. This is followed by the description of the CEPA tool. Next, several scenarios proposed for the decarbonization of Polish energy generation sector for years 2030, 2040 and 2050 will be discussed. 2. Methodology – carbon emission pinch analysis (CEPA) An important CEPA tool for optimum planning of energy resources is energy planning pinch diagram (EPPD; Fig. 1 ). Steps for plotting the EPPD are given as follows (Tan and Foo, 2007 ): Energy demands and sources are arranged in the ascending order of their CO 2 intensity. The demand composite curve is plotted on a CO 2 emission vs. energy diagram, in ascending order of CO 2 intensity. The latter is represented by the gradient of each demand segment. The demand composite curve represents the total energy requirement of the various sectors/region that are indeed of energy. The source composite curve is plotted on the same CO 2 emission vs. energy diagram, thus forming the EPPD. The source composite curve is a total representation of all energy resources available for use. As the energy sources have been arranged in ascending order of CO 2 intensities, gradient of each source segment also indicates the CO 2 intensity of a given energy resource. The EPPD is infeasible if the source composite curve stays above and/or to the left of the demand composite curve, as shown in Fig. 1 (a). To restore its feasibility, the source composite curve is shifted to the right, until it stays entirely below and to the right of the demand composite curve, as shown in Fig. 1 (b). Due to the horizontal shift, the deficit of energy resource is fulfilled by renewables. The minimum amount of the renewables is given by the opening on the left of the EPPD (see Fig. 1 (b)). On the other hand, the opening on the right end of the EPPD represents the excess energy sources that should be discarded, due to its violation of the CO 2 emission limit. 3. The state of the Polish energy sector Poland is a country in central Europe with an area of 312,700 km 2 and a population of 37.8 million. The Polish economy has been developing at a stable pace for over 25 years and is the sixth largest economy in the European Union, and GDP per capita is above 70% of the EU average (based on purchasing power parity) (Polish Investment & Trade Agency 2023). According to data from the International Monetary Fund, Poland's GDP for year 2023 is approximately USD 748.89 billion (Maciuch 2023 ). The Polish energy sector is highly emission-intensive because it is mostly based on hard coal and lignite. The share of coal in 2022 gross electricity production was 72.3% (Dusiło 2023a ). For this reason, Poland ranks 7th in the world in terms of the unit emission intensity of all economic sectors (2.84 tons of CO 2 /toe). The current modernization activities of the electricity industry in years 1990–2022 (e.g. modernization of coal-fired power plants, development of onshore wind energy, integration of the Polish transmission system with the entire Western Europe, intensive development of photovoltaic sources in recent years, etc. (Wieczerzak-Krusińska 2018 )) resulted in a decrease in CO 2 emissions by 25.2% (Dusiło 2023a ). However, the specific CO 2 emission of the Polish electricity sector amounted to 666 g CO 2 /kWh and ranks last in the EU (European Environment Agency 2024 ). For comparison, the average emission intensity for the entire European Union in 2022 was approximately 251 g CO 2 /kWh EU (European Environment Agency 2024 ), which is 62% lower than that of Polish electricity sector. The decline in emissions from the electricity sector in Poland since the introduction of the EU ETS in 2005 was reported as 11.5% (Dusiło 2023a ). The scale of the problem should be taken into account. From the beginning of the 20th century, the Polish power industry was fueled mainly by hard coal and later by lignite. The use of other (renewable) energy sources on a larger scale only began at the end of the 20th century. For example, the first unit of the Polish nuclear power plant will be launched no earlier than 2033 (National Atomic Energy Agency 2020 ). Therefore, Poland has a slower starting point for its decarbonization, as compared to its other EU counterparts. On February 2024, the new Deputy Minister of Climate stated that Poland is focusing on two goals, i.e. greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 55% by year 2030, as compared to year 1990 level; and next is to achieve climate neutrality by year 2050 (Deputy Minister of Climate and Environment 2024 ). On the same day, the European Commission recommended reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 emission levels (European Commission 2024 ). However, this is the value proposed as the initial value for negotiations with EU countries. In this section, the current practice of Polish power generation sector in year 2022 is first analyzed. This is used as base year where comparison may be made with future year scenarios. Table 1 Capacity and gross electricity generation of individual energy sources in the Polish energy mix at the end of 2022 (Dusiło 2023a ) Energy sources Installed capacity [GW] Energy generation [TWh] Photovoltaics 12.1 8.0 Wind 9.1 19.4 Hydropower 0.6 2.0 Biomass 0.8 4.3 Biomass co-combustion - 1.9 Biogas 0.3 1.4 Coal 23.1 81.9 Lignite 8.3 47.3 Natural gas 3.8 11.7 Pumped storage 1.8 1.1 Total 59.9 179.0 Table 1 shows the capacity and gross electricity generation of individual energy sources at the end of year 2022, with a total installed power generation capacity of 59.9 GW. The most abundant energy source in Poland is hard coal, which contributes a total of 45.8% (81.9 TWh) on its total sources (179 TWh), which is then followed by lignite that occupies a total of 26.4% (47.3 TWh). In other words, a total of 72.2% of electricity was generated from these two fossil fuels in year 2022 (Dusiło 2023a ). It is very obvious that these two “dirty” sources (with high CO 2 intensity) have to be replaced by low- or carbon-neutral renewables in coming decades in order for Polish power generation sector to achieve its decarbonization goal set out in Energy Policy of Poland Until 2040 (EPP2040) (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021a ). Meanwhile, due to the embargo on fuel supplies from Russia, gas prices have increased significantly and its availability has significantly decreased. For this reason, significant decrease in energy generation from natural gas was recorded in year 2022, i.e. 11.7 TWh (as compared to 15.3 TWh in 2021) (Dusiło 2023a ). The decrease of 3.6 TWh of generation of electricity from natural gas in 2022 (as compared to year 2021) was replaced by an increase of generation of 4 TWh of photovoltaic energy in 2022. The generation of electricity from hard coal also decreased by 4.7 TWh, while production from lignite increased by 1.3 TWh (Dusiło 2023), despite the high price of CO 2 emission allowances. On the other hand, an increase of 5.5 GW was observed for the capacity of renewable energy sources (RES), i.e. photovoltaics, wind, hydropower, biomass, biomass co-combustion, reaching a total of 22.9 GW (Dusiło 2023a ). Note that biomass co-combustion has not been added to the installed capacity, because the process is part of the coal power plants. Poland's hydrological resources are among the lowest in Europe. Additionally, small differences in levels make the country's hydropower potential relatively small. Therefore, no increase in hydroelectric power capacity is planned in EPP2040. The increase of RES capacity was due to the intensive development of photovoltaics (3.18 GW), mainly private micro-installations that are connected to the grid on a prosumer basis. At the end of year 2022, there were a total of 1.2 million photovoltaic micro-installations, including 356,000 connected in 2022 itself (Pająk 2023 ). Hence, photovoltaic energy generation was reported to be doubled as compared to that in 2021. Total installed capacity in photovoltaic installations reached 12.1 GW at the end of 2022 (prospe 1), while EPP2040 projected 5.1 GW by 2035 and 9.8 GW by 2040 (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021a ). This unplanned development of the photovoltaic energy sector results from making it possible to reduce the electricity bills of private customers who produce electricity from their own small photovoltaic installations. These changes have made photovoltaics important for the Polish energy system. In EPP2040, it is assumed that the newly installed photovoltaic energy will happen at the local level. In other words, these micro-installations of photovoltaic on house roofs can partially cater for self-consumption in the house. Excess energy is discharged to the public grid which is treated as energy storage facility. Note however that this causes problems with maintaining the proper voltage in the grid. Due to greater generation of energy (179 TWh) than demand (177.1 TWh), Poland was an energy exporter for the first time in 7 years, with RES exceeded 20% of the mix (Dusiło 2023a ). It is worth mentioning that the development of household photovoltaics in year 2022 was positively influenced by the government subsidy program (‘My electricity’) that facilitated the purchase and installation of PV installations, as well as the prosumer settlement system for next 15 years; the latter guarantees low electricity bills (Globenergia 2023 ). In 2022, Poland achieved a record result in the annual installation of its wind energy generation, adding 1.5 GW of new wind capacity. In this category, Poland took 7th place in Europe. Achieving this result was possible due to the implementation of wind projects for which investors obtained construction permits by 2016 (Kiwacka 2023 ). After 2016, it was no longer possible to obtain permission to build wind farms due to the lack of suitable land. Further investments were blocked by a distance law provision (10H), which states that the protection area around the wind farm should be 10 times the height of the wind turbines (Journal of Laws of the Republic of Poland 2016 ). Poland is not a densely populated country, but scattered housing development has limited the areas for the construction of large wind farms. Thus, Act 10H was revised in February 2023. After a strategic environmental impact assessment, the width of the protection zone was revised to 700 m, which allows 18,000 km 2 of new areas for the potential development of new wind farms (Journal of Laws of the Republic of Poland 2023 ). Additionally, it is planned to modernize the existing wind farms, i.e. raise the towers and replace the turbine with 30% more powerful ones, so to increase the energy generation up to 100%. This is due to stronger and more stable wind at higher altitudes (Kurtyka 2022 ). However, further development of large wind and photovoltaic farms requires large investments in the expansion and modernization of transmission networks, because it is very difficult to obtain permission to connect renewable energy farms to the grid at present state (Kierunekenergetyka 2023 ). Another problem to be resolved is the development of energy storage for the further increase of RES. Unfortunately, energy storage technologies are still very expensive. At present, the temporary solution used in Poland is the energy storage in pumped-storage power plants. This solution ensures high energy storage and recovery efficiency of 0.7. Due to the development of RES in Poland, several power plants of this type will be constructed in the near future (Elżbieciak and Derski 2023 ). 4. CEPA for Year 2022 For this work, 2022 was selected as the base year since this is the most recent period where the data is available. The usage of all energy sources were reported by (Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. 2022). In order for fair comparison, the emission factors for energy sources were calculated and summarized in Table 2 (column 2). Note that the following assumptions were made in plotting the EPPD in Fig. 2 : Emission factors of renewable and nuclear energy sources take into account the carbon footprint of these sources. Industrial power plants are characterized by the same emission index value as commercial power plants powered by hard coal, thus they are summed up in the 'coal' category, Energy exports and imports to neighboring countries was omitted as they are insignificant. Table 2 contains data from the 'Energy Transition in Poland’ (ETP23) report (Dusiło 2023a ) on electricity generation in the base year of 2022 and forecasts for 2030 and 2040 from EPP2040. These data cannot be directly compared because the ETP23 report gives values for total gross energy generated, while EPP2040 gives net values, i.e. including energy consumption by power plants and distribution losses of 5.7% (Schneider Electric Polska 2015 ). Knowing the value of the total net production of 149.6 TWh (Dusiło 2023a ), the generated energy was recalculated, assuming that the RESs losses only occur at their distribution. The calculated coefficient of energy losses for emission power plants amounted to 13.7% of the total generation (see Appendix A1). Table 2 also contains emission factors for electricity sources that are used in Poland. Most emission factors were taken from the work of Cossutta et al. (Cossutta et al. 2021 ). Since lignite is used less often in the EU, its emission factor is not reported in the literature. Hence, the emission factor value for lignite of 1.2519 Mt CO 2 /TWh was calculated by dividing the CO 2 emission for lignite of 48.2 Mt/year by the net energy of 38.5 TWh/year generated from this fuel in 2022 (Dusiło 2023a ). From Table 2 , the emission factor for offshore wind farms has a higher value of 0.0112 Mt CO 2 -eq/TWh (as compared to onshore wind turbines) due to the transmission of energy from sea to land (Wang and Sun 2012 ).The emission factor for photovoltaic panels was taken from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (Pachauri et al. 2014 ). Pumped-storage power plants do not generate electricity, but they store excess energy produced mainly during efficient wind and intense insolation. Therefore, the emission factor for this source was set to zero. For this reason, pumped storage power plants are not included in EPP2040, although they will be developed and used to store excess energy. With the above-mentioned emission factors, the EPPD is plotted in Fig. 2 . A demand composite curve is also included in the EPPD in Fig. 2 , in order to compare whether the CO 2 emission in year 2022 exceeded the allowed emission limit. As shown in Fig. 2 , the demand composite curve does not intersect with the source composite curve. This means that CO 2 emissions (128.6 Mt) are lower than those assumed in EPP2040 (133 Mt CO 2 ) (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021a ). The change in year 2022 was resulted from rapid development of renewable sources (mainly photovoltaics) and increased generation of electricity from wind farms. Both of these factors lead to the decrease of generation from hard coal and natural gas. For this reason, emissions from power plants and combined heat and power (CHP) plants fell 0.9% from the previous year by 1.3 Mt of CO 2 -eq (Dusiło 2023a ). Even thorough the annual changes in CO 2 emissions are very much depending on political and economic situations in the country, the long-term emission trend for Poland is downward. For example, Polish emissions from lignite and hard coal (electricity and district heating) fell by 20% (-12.4 Mt CO 2 -eq) and 12% (-12.7 Mt CO 2 -eq), respectively in the last decade (Dusiło 2023a ). On the other hand, emissions from natural gas increased by 142% (+ 3.8 Mt CO 2 -eq) for the same period (Dusiło 2023a ). Compared to year 2021, the demand for energy also decreased by almost 1 TWh. This can be explained by the increase of energy consumed directly from solar panels by prosumers. Note however that self-consumption of solar prosumers is not being monitored. The fact that EPP2040 CO 2 emission target could be met in year 2022 shows that Poland's energy transformation is in the right direction. However, it should be noted that EPP2040 (which was approved in February 2021) is no longer valid due to the recently adopted EU programs to accelerate decarbonization effort of Europe. Changes in Poland's energy system may therefore prove insufficient in the face of faster changes required by the EU. Table 2 Data for the power generation sources in Poland (emission factor in Mt/TWh; energy in TWh) (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021a ) Emission factor Year 2022 (gross generation (Dusiło 2023a )) Year 2022 (net generation) Year 2030 Year 2040 Biomass 0.1649 6.2 5.1 7.4 7.5 Biogas 0.0250 (Valli et al. 2017 ) 1.4 1.1 Nuclear power 0.0716 0.0 0.00 0.0 33.4 Hydropower 0.0257 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 Wind energy, onshore 0.0430 19.4 18.3 23.1 22.1 Wind energy, offshore 0.0542 (Wang and Sun 2012 ) 0.0 0.0 24.0 39.4 Photovoltaics 0.0440 8.0 7.5 4.4 9.6 Natural gas 0.4116 11.7 9.5 52.6 67.6 Pumped storage 0.0000 1.1 1.0 Coal (commercial power industry) 1.1172 81.9 66.6 26.9 18.2 Lignite 1.2519 47.3 38.5 41.0 4.6 Total 179.0 149.6 181.1 204.2 In the following sub-sections, different scenarios for the planning of years 2030 and 2040 will be discussed. 5. The impact of electromobility on electricity demand for years 2030 and 2040 The data for preparing the EPPD was taken from EPP2040 (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021a ), and summarized in the last two columns of Table 2 . The EPPD for years 2030 and 2040 are presented in Fig. 3 . As shown in Fig. 3 , the calculated CO 2 emissions for years 2030 and 2040 have slightly exceeded the limit stated in EPP2040, by 6.8 and 5.1 Mt CO 2 -eq/y, respectively. However, many changes have occurred since the introduction of EPP2040. One such major change was the introduction of the 'Fit for 55' package, which includes a ban on combustion cars sale from year 2035. The increase in the share of electric and hydrogen-powered cars will be forced by a gradual increase in taxation on fossil fuel. This means that electrification of road transportation will occur much faster than the natural process. This will lead to growing demand for electricity and hydrogen in order to power these cars. To estimate the increase of electricity demand due to increased electric cars in Poland, the following assumptions are made: In 2022, a total of 29 million vehicles were used in Poland (GUS 2023 ), which ranks 4th among European countries. These are to be completely replaced by electric or hydrogen cars by 2050. Due to the constant population in Poland, the growing number of professions that do not require leaving home and the growing role of public transport and taxis, the number of passenger cars in 2050 will be the same as in 2022. Intensive replacement of combustion cars with electric or hydrogen cars will take place in a linear manner between years 2030–2050. The average annual mileage of car in Poland is 8,600 km (Piesowicz 2021 ). The amount of electricity needed to travel 100 km is equal to 16–28 kWh (Frączyk 2021 ). Hence, an average of 22 kWh/100 km was assumed for calculations. With complete replacement of electric and hydrogen cars by year 2050, the net amount of electricity needed is calculated as 54.9 TWh/y (= 29 Mil x 8600 x 22/100 TWh/y). Hence, the expected linear increase in electricity demand in the years 2030–2050 is shown in Fig. 4 . Note that for years 2045–2050, the electricity demand were extrapolated based on the trend estimated in EPP2040. The increased demand for electricity caused by the growth of electromobility is shown by the appropriate line in Fig. 3 . After taking into account the energy demand for electric cars and for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels, the energy shortfall for year 2040 is calculated as amounts to 27.45 TWh (= 231.65–204.2 TWh), as compared to the predicted value in EPP2040. In the following sections, various scenarios will be proposed in order to fulfil the amount of energy generation, as well as to limit the level of emissions according to EU plans. 6. General strategies for deep decarbonization To achieve deep decarbonization objective, the following strategies are proposed for Poland. Growth of wind energy It is expected that wind energy will play a major role in decarbonizing the energy generation sector. As shown in Table 2 , onshore wind energy will have a steady grow in the coming decade until year 2030, i.e. where available land for the construction of wind farms is exhausted. As discussed earlier, the amendment to the law (Act 10H) on available land has encourage the growth of wind farms in Poland (Journal of Laws of the Republic of Poland 2023 ). At present, Poland does not have any offshore wind farms. Hence, it has higher growing potential than the onshore wind farms. The Baltic Sea is very attractive due to its good wind conditions and lower depths. It is expected that by year 2030, several offshore wind farms will be put into operation in the Polish coastal zone of the Baltic Sea, and their strong development is expected until 2040. Poland's late start of the construction of offshore wind farms may prove beneficial due to access to modernized and more efficient wind turbines in recent years. The first project of this type is the 'Baltic Power' project, which will be implemented in 2024–2026 (BalticPower 2024 ). The report of the Polish Wind Energy Association estimates that it is possible to deploy wind farms with a total capacity of 33 GW in the Polish territorial waters of the Baltic Sea. Offshore wind farms of this capacity would generate approximately 130 TWh of electricity annually (PWEA 2022 ). Therefore, it is necessary to expand the transmission infrastructure to distribute such large energy generation. Growth of natural gas Even though natural gas is a fossil fuel, it is still cleaner than oil and coal. Hence, it is can serve as a transition fuel towards deeper decarbonization. The IEA has reported that under a sustainable development scenario, natural gas use will increase to 41% in year 2040 (from 28% in year 2018), which is then followed by 40% of oil and 19% of coal (IEA 2019 ). Due to the Ukraine war economic sanctions towards Russia (including natural gas supplies), the prices of natural gas has rose to the highest level in history. Therefore, although the capacity of gas power plants has increased to 6.8 GW in 2022, energy production with this fuel was very unprofitable and decreased to 11.7 TWh in year 2022 (from 15.3TWh in previous year) (Dusiło 2023a ). Subsequently, new LPG suppliers is found to replace Russian Gazprom, and hence natural gas became cheaper since February 2023 (Trusewicz 2023 ). With the completion of the Norway-Denmark-Poland gas pipeline (Baltic Pipe) in September 2022, Poland's gas supply situation has become stable. Hence, the use of natural gas as a transition fuel (to abandon coal and lignite) has become possible. For this reason, the construction of several natural gas power plants has began in 2023. For example, construction of a 560 MW natural gas power plant (by ORLEN) is scheduled to be completed in 2025. The advantage of this type of modern power plants is its ability to burn a mixture of methane and hydrogen. Hydrogen is the fuel of the future that can be produced in a zero-emission way, e.g. via solar power. An additional advantage of the gas power plants is its quick start-up time (ranging between 30–90 minutes). This makes it possible to quickly respond to fluctuations in power generated by wind and solar power plants. The second natural gas power plant currently under construction is the power plant in Ostrołęka with a capacity of 745MW (WNP 2023 ).The Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) technology used in this power plant allows for two-stage electricity production, i.e. gas turbine in the first stage, and hot exhaust gases in the second stage with steam turbine. The CCGT has many advantages over traditional steam turbines, such as increased efficiency (by 50%), lower investment cost (by 30%), higher reliability, etc. Moreover, CCGT blocks interact well with unstable RES because they have a high startup speed (Eltel Networks 2023 ). The largest ongoing investment by Polish Energy Group is the construction of two gas units with a total capacity of 1,400 MW at the Dolna Odra Power Plant by 2024. In 2024, the construction of a 450 to 600 MW CCGT units in Gdańsk and Kozienice will begin. CCGT turbines will replace technically exploited coal blocks that are unprofitable due to high CO 2 emissions. For example, the coal-fired power plant in Rybnik will be replaced by a 882 MW CCGT unit by the end of 2026 (Ciszak 2023 ). To ensure sufficient gas supplies to Poland, further diversification of this raw material supply is planned. The new floating marine terminal will be completed by 2028. Two floating regasification unit (FSRU) ships with regasification capacities of 6.1 and 4.5 billion m 3 /y will be connected to the terminal (Kadej 2023 ). Reduction of lignite and hard coal Both of these fossil fuels are currently in use widely in Poland, due to their large availability and the large number of power plants built prior to the rise of climate change concern. Abandoning the use of coal and lignite for sustainable power generation is necessary. Unfortunately, the Polish energy system is highly dependent on coal, i.e. highest among European countries (70.7% of energy generated in 2022). Thus, the reduction of lignite and hard coal will be very expensive and protracted. Another factor for consideration is the large number of employees in coal mining and processing. The Polish government will have to deal with this problem due to EU regulations. Currently, Polish coal-fired power plants are co-financed under “capacity market”. In short, it is a mechanism for rewarding energy producers for their readiness to work. The government has negotiated an extension of this mechanism of subsidizing the oldest and most emission-intensive coal-fired power plants from 2025 to 2028. The system of subsidizing the newest coal-fired power plants will be in force until 2035. After this date, energy generation in these power plants will be economically scarce (Grzeszak 2024 ). The European Union supports the process of abandoning coal. For example, Poland received EUR 5 billion from the REPowerEU program in December 2023 for investments in green energy and its associated technologies. Use of nuclear energy Poland does not have a nuclear power plant. A nuclear power plant was built in years 1982–1989, but was abandoned after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. From the point of view of CO 2 emissions, nuclear energy is classified as clean because it does not result in direct greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, EPP2040 plans to use nuclear energy as a stable and emission-free energy source. Currently, there is no cheap and efficient RES energy storage technology. Therefore, the energy system should be partly based on baseload technologies, i.e. with high stability of energy production. According to (Regulation of the Minister of Climate and Environment 2023 ), the value of the typical availability of nuclear plants is very high and amounts to 96.76%. According to the report of the Polish transmission system operator (PSE 2020 ), disposable sources should approximately constitute 18–20% of the peak demand for power in Polish conditions. This value will be taken into account in scenarios for Poland, in which the most important goal is to ensure stable energy supplies with a capacity that meets demand. The long annual operating time of a nuclear reactor as well as the controllability of power generation contribute to achieving this goal. The Polish Nuclear Power Program (PNPP) was published in the Journal of Laws on October 2020 (National Atomic Energy Agency 2020 ).Elements of this program were also included in EPP2040. Nuclear energy has advantages of low cost of electricity generation, high stability and controllability, low greenhouse gas emissions, etc. Despite its disadvantages such as high investment costs and radioactive waste disposal problems, Poland decided to base its energy sector on this technology. The current government maintains the need to build nuclear power plants in Poland, but the construction of the reactors is still in the preparatory phase (KRO 2023 ). Development of energy storage technologies and hydrogen energy The main disadvantage of power generation from RES is its dependence on weather. If the energy system contains a high percentage of RES, it is necessary to have energy storage so that the excess energy may be store for future use when energy deficit is experienced. Large scale energy storage technology are based on the synthesis of energy compounds. These technologies are generally known as power-to-X (P2X), where X may take the form of ammonia (P2A), gaseous fuel (P2G), green hydrogen (P2H) or liquid fuel (P2L). These technologies are currently in the research and development phase. No Polish energy transformation program included information on electricity supplies stabilization using Power-to-Power technology (P2P) prior to year 2021. Only on November 2021, the Polish Parliament passed the Polish Hydrogen Strategy until 2040 (PHS2040) (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021b ). The goal of PHS2040 is to produce low-emission hydrogen for the use in power industry, transport and industry. The main plans of PHS2040 are to support research and development of technologies related to the production of green hydrogen, conversion of hydrogen into other fuels, storage of hydrogen and its direct conversion into energy. PHS2040 will also support the construction of pilot installations in the above-mentioned areas on an increasingly larger scale. For the support policy for companies dealing with green hydrogen technologies to be effective, it is necessary to create a national support program for building a hydrogen economy. However, the most important thing is to adopt appropriate legal provisions enabling the use of EU and national support programs. For example, the definition of hydrogen energy in the RED II directive in year 2023 was crucial. This definition states clearly the method of hydrogen generation in accordance with the Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO). At the level of EU legislation, the RED III directive was adopted at the end of year 2023. It is necessary to transfer the provisions of RED III directive into Polish legislation. This allows projects to be properly prepared to meet the objectives of the RED III directive. A necessary condition for the profitable use of hydrogen technologies in the energy industry is a large excess of electricity production from RES. This can be achieved with the intensive development of offshore wind energy along with the free development of photovoltaics, unrestricted by the possibilities of energy transfer through power grids. An example of this type of energy mix is ​​discussed in this paper in scenario 2. The goals of the EU RePower program for green hydrogen production are 10 million t/y in year 2030. According to forecasts for year 2050, apart from transport (177 Mt), hydrogen will be used mainly in industry (110 Mt), primarily in chemical (ammonia and methanol production), as well as the iron and steel production sectors (direct iron reduction process). However, the use of hydrogen in the oil refining process are expected to decrease, i.e. from 41 Mt in 2022 to 10 Mt in 2050 (Rzeczycki 2024 ). Currently, there are no examples of using green hydrogen for energy storage. This is due to the fact that a large percentage of energy is still produced from stable emission sources. This situation will change as traditional fossil power plants will be replaced by unstable RES sources. In Poland, the effects of the first hydrogen projects are currently emerging, such as the research and development project launched in year 2023 with a high-temperature electrolyzer in a cogeneration plant in Elbląg (Helbin 2024 ). This is the first installation of this type in the world operating together with a combined heat and power plant. This high-temperature electrolysis project aims to reduce energy consumption of hydrogen production. The installation converts the produced hydrogen into electricity using a fuel cell. Another project is low-emission hydrogen produced from biomethane in Trzebinia (Helbin 2024 ). The first local government hydrogen company, Hydro Sanok, is also an innovative project. The company's goal is to transform the energy system of the city of Sanok with the participation of RES and renewable hydrogen (Helbin 2024 ). An example of a future project is green hydrogen plant with a capacity of approximately 105 MW and a planned production volume of 13,000 t H 2 /year. The factory will be built in the Polish industrial region (Upper Silesia). Green hydrogen will be intended for heavy industry and zero-emission transport. Another project underway is the construction of an installation for the production of green hydrogen with a capacity of 5 MW in Nowa Sarzyna. This hydrogen will be transformed using P2L technology into fuel for air transport. Such fuel will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in high-emission air transport (Blaczkowska 2024 ). In June 2024, the first electrolyzer in Poland with a capacity of 5 MW was launched for the production of green hydrogen (Pająk 2024 ). Green hydrogen is expected to be used for various purposes, such refueling buses, in which are currently fueled by hydrogen from fossil sources. Dominant share of RES in the energy mix Balancing of energy demand and generation is not tantamount to achieving the basic goal of energy security. Energy generation with RES are characterized by fluctuations due to weather and seasonality. If the share of RES in the energy mix is ​​high, energy generation may be too small in relation to current needs. On the other hand, it may be necessary to disconnect the RES from the power grid when it is too much in excess. Currently, despite relatively low energy generation of RES in Poland (27.1% (Dusiło 2024 )),energy lost in the first 4 months of 2024 was reported to be 400 GWh (CIRE 2024a ). With the inevitable increase in the share of RES, this effect will be more apparent. The state of energy deficiency is much worse. In unfavorable weather conditions, energy generation may fail to meet the minimum power requirement, despite of energy is imported from neighboring countries. For this reason, it is necessary to store large amount of energy during excess generation period, and use it during energy shortage. It becomes necessary to use high-capacity energy storage facilities. A promising technology is electrolytic production of hydrogen, with efficiency estimated at 67–81% (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). It is expected that the development of this technology may lead to an efficiency of 80–90% by year 2050 (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). Technologies for transforming hydrogen into fuels that are safer to store and burn are currently being developed. These are low-efficiency processes, e.g. methanation has an efficiency of 58% (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). Therefore, hydrogen should be stored and used as an energy fuel and a substrate in industry. In Poland, this is possible because geological structures contain the so-called salt caverns. These are tight, deep underground voids, currently used in Poland to store natural gas (Energetyka24 2019 ). The usefulness of caverns for storing hydrogen for petrochemical purposes has already been proven (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). The combustion efficiency of pure or methane-doped hydrogen in CCGT systems adapted for this purpose is approximately 60% and is the same as for energy production using fuel cells (Drozdowski 2020 ). With the previously mentioned 80% electrolysis efficiency, the efficiency of P2P transformation via hydrogen is 48% (= 0.6 x 0.8). This value will be used for analysis in scenario 2. Increased use of biomass and biogas The use of wood as fuel for electricity generation in Poland is theoretically possible. Poland has a forest coverage of 30.8%, which is close to the EU (32.2%) and world average (30.6%). Despite large forest resources, Poland does not have wood that can be used to produce electricity on a large scale. In addition, the availability of timber has significantly decreased as a result of introduction of economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus. Before the war, Poland imported 26.8% of wood and wooden products from Belarus, 5.3% from Russia and 10% from Ukraine. Most of the imported firewood and waste wood, as much as 64%, came from Belarus (PKOBP - Department of Economic Analysis 2022 ). The report prepared by the Polish Supreme Audit Office (Supreme Audit Office 2022 ) confirms the difficulties with obtaining firewood in Poland. The report stated that the Polish biomass market was unpredictable due to significant price fluctuations or the lack of a coherent policy in terms of development of biomass fuels. As a consequence, contracts with providers for a period of producing energy sold as a result of auctions could not be guaranteed. Previous support systems for the generation of electricity from biofuels turned out to be ineffective in the Polish reality. The policy should be revised to encourage the use of biomass. Note that biomass is considered carbon-neutral as it captures CO 2 from the atmosphere during photosynthesis. For this reason, no emission fee is charged in the case of biomass combustion. An additional advantage of biomass energy is that, it is less influenced by weather condition (relative to solar and wind energy). The RED III directive maintains woody biomass as a RES. However, it limits its use due to the need for increased nature protection. The RED III directive obliges EU countries to develop national support systems for the cascading use of biomass, i.e. forest biomass is used in accordance with its greatest added value in economic and environmental terms. It also limits the use forest biomass in the energy sector to approximately 20–25%. In turn, for agricultural biomass (AB), it is required to minimize the use of food and feed plants for energy purposes. RED II regulated that AB for energy purposes can be originated from slurry, manure, waste from agri-food industry, agricultural by-products (e.g. straw), and energy crops possible in accordance with. Class V and VI lands can be used for energy crops, which constitute 21 and 12% of arable land in Poland, respectively (Pronobis et al. 2024 ). The use of the so-called “wet AB” (i.e. waste from animal husbandry) for biogas production is regulated by law in Poland. However, there is no comprehensive legal and economic system to encourage the use of AB as a RES resource in the energy and heating industry. Such a system should be established because Poland has large resources of unused AB in the form of agricultural plant waste. There are also vast areas of infertile and unused land where energy crops can be grown. The potential uses of AB are presented in the Table 3 . Table 3 Agricultural biomass in Poland (Pronobis et al. 2024 ) AB (currently available) AB (potentially obtainable) AB (in total) Mass [Mt/y] 8 20 28 Electricity [TWh/y] 13.28 33.20 46.48 According to (Pronobis et al. 2024 ), AB is useful for generating heat and electricity in the cogeneration process. Assuming a calorific value of 4.15 TWh/Mt (Pronobis et al. 2024 ), while efficiency of cogeneration process is assumed at 40%, it is possible to generate 13.28 TWh/h (= 8 x 4.15 x 0.4) power from the currently available biomass of 8 Mt. If efforts were made to obtain all potential biomass, i.e. 28 Mt, it is possible to obtain 46.48 TWh/y (= 28 x 4.15 x 0.4) of power (see Table 3 ). In the current version of EPP2040, only forest biomass is planned to be used. Therefore, in the scenarios, energy from AB will be combined with energy from forest biomass. Since the Polish authorities currently do not plan to revive the biomass sector, two variants will be considered in the scenarios in this paper: the use of biomass in accordance with EPP2040 and the use of additional AB. The values ​​of energy generation from AB are included in the Table 10 . 7. Proposed plans for decarbonization for Polish power industry for years 2030 and 2040 As shown in Fig. 3 , the EPPDs for years 2030 and 2040 are both infeasible, as the demand composite curve lies below the source composite curve. In order to restore the feasibility of the EPPD, three scenarios are proposed. In each scenario, the development of various energy sources is analyzed differently than in EPP2040. As described earlier, the rapid development of nuclear energy, natural gas and RES, (i.e. photovoltaic and wind) are being considered in Poland. Here is an analysis of development plans for individual sources. Nuclear energy EPP2040 (Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021a ) envisages the construction of 4 nuclear reactors by year 2040. In EPP2040, it was assumed that the power of each reactor would be 1.1 GW. On February 2023, state treasury company Polish Nuclear Power Plants signed an agreement with Westinghouse Electric Company for the preparation of a nuclear power plant project (Polish Nuclear Power Plants Co. 2023). It was agreed that Poland would use AP1000 reactors, with generation capacity of 1,250 MW each (Office of the MSP Ombudsman 2023 ). Hence, its value is more than that assumed in EPP2040. Therefore, the values ​​of power and generated energy have been corrected in this paper and given in the Table 4 . The main obstacle with this nuclear plant project is its large financial investment. It is expected that EU funds (e.g. National Recovery Plan (NRP)) will be made available for Poland for the development of this energy sources. In order to develop nuclear energy, a consortium was also established among three energy companies, i.e. ZE PAK, Polish Energy Group (PGE) and the Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP). The consortium plans to build two commercial reactors with a total capacity of 2.8 GW by 2035 (CIRE 2024b ). The total energy generated by these two nuclear reactors is also given in Table 4 . It is expected that the large reactors are to be complemented by some small modular rectors (SMR). Currently a prototype reactor BWRX-300 (capacity of 300 MW) is being installed in Darlington, Canada (Rogers 2024 ). The first Polish BWRX-300 should be commissioned before year 2030 (Globenergia 2024 ). It has been reported that this type of reactors will be installed in 6 locations in Poland (Rogers 2024 ). These SMRs are expected to supply power to large and energy-intensive industrial plants in Poland. However, as these SMRs are still at the prototype phase without a proper schedule, they were excluded in the analysis. Table 4 Net energy generation from nuclear reactors Year 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2050 Number of government reactors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 Net electricity generation by government nuclear reactors [TWh/y] 9.49 18.98 28.47 37.95 47.44 56.93 66.42 85.40 Net electricity generation by two commercial nuclear reactors [TWh/y] 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.25 Total net energy generation [TWh/y] 9.49 40.23 49.72 59.21 68.70 78.19 87.68 106.65 Since RES are given higher priority in power generation, nuclear power is not taken as the primary power source. In situation where large excess of RES is made available, nuclear energy will be kept below its potential generation capacity. For this reason, commercial investments in nuclear power plants may prove to be unprofitable. Therefore, in scenarios 1 and 2, the investment of nuclear power plants is assumed to be unprofitable. In these scenarios, nuclear power plants are built by energy companies but will be managed by the state treasury. On the other hand, Scenario 3 envisages the construction of both commercial and state-owned power plants. Based on the data in Table 4 , data for nuclear power for all scenarios are summarized in Table 5 . Table 5 Energy generated by nuclear reactors in scenarios 1–3 Scenario 1 and 2 Scenario 3 2030 2040 2030 2040 Power [GW] 0 5.00 0 7.80 Energy generation [TWh/y] 0 37.95 0 59.21 Offshore and onshore wind energy As discussed in earlier section, wind energy, especially offshore wind energy has good growing potential in Poland. Despite of its high growth potential, offshore wind energy does not possesses high availability (due to reasons discussed earlier). Therefore, wind energy may be taken as the primary source along with nuclear power in the future. The Baltic Sea is highly attractive for investors of offshore wind farm because it is shallow and has good wind conditions. Due to the high dispositionality and efficiency of offshore wind farms, the construction of wind farms and all related infrastructure will begin soon in the Polish zone of the Baltic Sea. The first power plant is Baltic Power which will be built in years 2024–2026, with a capacity of 1.2 GW. Another offshore wind farm project is Baltica2, which will be built in 2026–2027 and has a capacity of 1.5 GW (with 107 wind turbines and 4 marine power stations) (Department of Renewable Energy Sources 2022 ). The next Baltica3 wind farm project with a capacity of 1 GW is expected to complete by year 2030 (Rynek Infrastruktury 2024). Note however that if the remaining planned investments of 2.2 GW wind farms project are not launched (Department of Renewable Energy Sources 2022 ), Poland will only have a total capacity of 3.7 GW (= 1.2 + 1.5 + 1 GW) of offshore wind farms by year 2030. This is significantly less than the 5.9 GW generation capacity as planned in EPP2040. According to the Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA) (Supernak 2024 ) and the Wind Association report (Polish Wind Energy Association 2022 ), the potential of offshore wind energy of the Baltic Sea (for the Polish part) is estimated as 33 GW. Lower values ​​ can be realistically achieved at 15.3 GW by year 2040 (PSEW et al. 2023), because next wind farms will be completed only after year 2030 (Spiller 2023 ). Similarly to offshore wind energy, the potential of onshore wind energy is expected to grow to 36 GW with the relaxation of the 10H law (Supernak 2024 ). Note that this is greater than that assumed in EPP2040. However, constructing such big scale wind farms by year 2030 is unlikely to happen due to the time constraint in obtaining such a large investment. Therefore, the scenarios will consider the realistic cases of the development of Polish wind energy. Note that the value reported for onshore wind energy category in EPP2040 has now outdated because the current capacity of onshore wind farms is greater than that planned for year 2030 in the EPP2040. Therefore, in Scenarios 1 and 3, the values are based on values ​​suggested by the government, while that in Scenario 2 is based on the analysis of PWEA, where maximum possible development of onshore energy is assumed (Wind Industry Hub, PSEW 2024) (Table 6 ). Table 6 Data for scenarios 1, 2 and 3 for wind energy (offshore generation factor 3.96 TWh/GW (Polish Wind Energy Association 2022 )) Scenario 1 and 3 (amendment of the EPP2040 (PSEW et al. 2023)) Scenario 2 (PSEW Report (Wind Industry Hub, PSEW 2024)) 2030 2040 2030 2040 Onshore GW 14.00 20.00 18.00 36.00 TWh/y 32.58 46.54 41.89 83.77 Offshore GW 5.90 15.30 5.90 15.30 TWh/y 24.00 60.60 24.00 60.60 Photovoltaic energy Factors such as disposability, efficiency and investment cost will determine the long term growth of photovoltaic energy in Poland. As Poland is located in the middle latitudes. Hence, there are large differences in insolation between winter and summer. A disadvantage of photovoltaic generation is its poor efficiency on cloudy days. It has been estimated that approximately 60% of daylight hours in Poland are cloudy (see Appendix A2). Even though this technology is unstable in Polish conditions, it has the advantage of being able to build installations of various scales. As shown in Table 7 , both installation capacity and energy generation of photovoltaic sources between years 2020–2023 have exceeded the planned value for year 2040 outlined in EPP2040. As discussed in earlier section, this accelerating rate was due to rapid development of private and medium size installations that are connected to the grid. If the increase in photovoltaic installations follows the same rate as in years 2020–2023 (i.e. 4.36 GW/y), the installation capacity would reach 90.9 GW by year 2040; this values is taken​​​​ for scenario 2 (see Table 7 ). Note however that in order to achieve such energy generation, rapid modernization of transmission networks is essential. At present, the Polish energy networks are not able to receive the entire generated power from photovoltaic energy. During the daily peak generation time, photovoltaic farms are cut off from the transmission network, due to excessive energy generation. Data from the Energy Regulatory Office shows that in year 2022, due to lack of technical capabilities, applications for connecting installations with a capacity over 51 GW were rejected (Arthur D. Little Co. 2024). Therefore, conservative assumptions are made for scenarios 1 and 3, where the growth rate of photovoltaic installation in years 2030–2040 is taken as 50% of the installation rate as in years 2020–2023 (i.e. 0.5 x 4.36 GW/y = 2.18 GW/y). Table 7 Energy generation from photovoltaic sources in scenarios 1–3 EPP2040 Actual data Scenario 1 and 3 Scenario 2 2030 2040 2020 2021 2022 2023 2030 2040 2030 2040 Installation capacity [GW] 5.1 9.8 4 7.7 12.1 17.1 23.6 45.4 47.3 90.9 Energy generation [TWh/y] 4.4 9.6 2 3.8 8 11.3 15.6 30.1 31.3 60.1 Natural gas, coal and lignite As discussed earlier, energy from natural gas power plants can quickly respond to fluctuations in energy supply and demand, apart from having less emissive than coal sources. At present, natural gas has not been used intensively in Poland, mainly due its higher price, which may result in a higher price for Polish power generation. It is expected that in the coming years, Poland will close coal-fired power plants gradually. In 2022, the capacity of coal-fired power plants was reported as 22.4 GW (Dusiło 2023a ). Due to the lack of profitability, it is predicted that 10 GW of coal generation capacity may be removed from the Polish power system by year 2030, and further increase to 15 GW by year 2040 (Energetyka24 2024 ). In other words, coal generation capacity will reduce to 12.4 GW (= 22.4–10 GW) in 2030 and further to 7.4 GW (= 22.4–15 GW) in year 2040. Note however that the previous government has signed an agreement to only terminate coal mining (for energy generation purposes) in year 2049. Thus, in all scenarios, coal power generation capacity is assumed as 12.4 GW in year 2030 and 7.4 GW in year 2040. These values were used to predict the power generation in these years. As shown in Table 8 , the average production of coal-fired power plants between years 2020–2022 were calculated as 3.37 TWh/GW (= (71.6 + 84.0 + 79.0)/(24.3 + 23.1 + 22.4) TWh/GW). Based on this average value, the coal generated power may be determined as 41.79 TWh/y (= 12.4 x 3.37 TWh/y) for year 2030 and 24.94 TWh/y (= 7.4 x 3.37 TWh/y) for year 2040 (shown in Table 8 ). Within the next decade, with the gradual elimination of coal-fired power plants (while nuclear power plants are yet to be in operational until 2030), more intensive use of natural gas for power generation is expected. Note that the plans for using national gas sources in EPP2040 are inaccurate, as EPP2040 was published before the Ukraine war, and hence it did not take into account that the economic sanctions where Poland would stop importing gas from Russian, even though the latter is available at a lower price. Hence, the targeted value of energy generation from natural gas in EPP2040 is practically unachievable. Based on the data in Table 8 , the average energy generation efficiency from natural gas was estimated as 4.03 TWh/GW, for the period of years 2020–2023. With the average efficiency calculated and the planned CCGT systems, energy generation was estimated for the years 2030 and 2040. The capacity of 8 GW in year 2030 results from the investments in the growth of the natural gas-based energy industry was described in the earlier section. Large lignite-fired power plants will be operated on the basis as supplementing the energy mix. In addition, energy from emission sources will be optimized to meet both energy demand and CO 2 emission limits. Table 8 Predicted maximum values ​​of energy generated from fossil fuels - comparison with EPP2040 Statistical data Prediction based on average generation EPP2040 2020 2021 2022 2030 2040 2030 2040 natural gas Power [GW] 3.20 3.20 3.80 8.00 11.30 4.70 11.30 Energy [TWh/y] 16.00 15.30 11.70 32.20 45.50 52.60 67.60 coal Power [GW] 24.30 23.10 22.40 12.40 7.40 13.70 5.69 Energy [TWh/y] 71.60 84.00 79.00 41.79 24.94 26.90 18.20 lignite Power [GW] 8.50 8.40 8.30 7.45 1.12 7.45 1.12 Energy [TWh/y] 38.30 46.00 47.30 38.53 5.79 41.00 4.60 Energy demand and target emissions CO 2 In all scenarios, energy demand were estimated based on EPP2040, with additional consideration for the growth of electromobility (see Fig. 4 and earlier section for this discussion). In May 2024, 66,000 electric cars were registered in Poland (0.25% of all cars in Poland). Therefore, in Fig. 4 it is assumed that the intensive increase in the number of electric cars will start only after year 2030. For this reason, energy demand in year 2030 is planned in accordance with EPP2040. However, in year 2040, the significant impact of electromobility has already been taken into account. The total power demand in year 2040 is equal 231.65TWh (i.e. 204.20 TWh with additional power demand for electric cars which is 27.45 TWh). Electricity demand for years 2030 and 2040 are given in Table 9 . As an EU member state, Poland must comply with EU law. Hence, the rate for Polish emission reduction must be faster than that reported in EPP2040, i.e. which take into account the “Fit for 55” plan. By year 2030, Polish CO 2 emissions should decrease by 55% as compared to the emissions in year 1990, i.e. 187.05 Mt CO 2 -eq (Dusiło 2023b ). In other words, the CO 2 emissions should be reduce to 84.17 Mt CO 2 -eq (= 187.05 x (100% – 55%)) by year 2030. As mentioned earlier, the European Commission announced a new net greenhouse gas emission reduction target for the EU on February 2024. In this new target, CO 2 emissions should be reduced by 90% by year 2040, as compared to the emission in 1990. This is an intermediate target aiming to achieve climate neutrality by year 2050. Since the 90% reduction target is subjected for negotiation, it is likely that the Polish government will adopt a lower reduction target of 85%, which means that the emissions should be reduced to 28.06 Mt CO 2 -eq by year 2040. Both CO 2 emissions targets for years 2030 and 2040 are summarized in Table 9 . Table 9 Energy demand and maximum emissions of the Polish energy sector until 2040 Year 2030 2040 Electricity demand [TWh/y] 181.10 231.65 Maximum emissions [Mt CO 2 -eq/year] 84.17 28.06 Table 10 Summary of data for scenarios 1, 2 and 3 Energy source Emission factor [Mt CO 2 -eq/TWh] Annual energy generation [TWh/y] Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2030 Year 2040 Year 2030 Year 2040 Biomass and biogas 0.1649 7.40 7.50 – 20.78 7.40 7.50 7.40 7.50 Nuclear power 0.0716 0.00 37.95 0.00 37.95 0.00 59.21 Hydropower 0.0257 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 Wind energy, onshore 0.0430 32.58 46.54 41.89 83.77 32.58 46.54 Wind energy, offshore 0.0542 (Wang and Sun 2012 ) 24.00 60.60 24.00 60.60 24.00 60.60 Photovoltaics 0.0440 15.64 30.06 31.28 60.13 15.64 30.06 Natural gas 0.4116 32.20 45.50 32.20 45.50 32.20 45.50 Coal 1.1172 41.79 24.94 41.79 24.94 41.79 24.94 Lignite 1.2519 38.53 5.79 38.53 5.79 38.53 5.79 As coal and lignite are mined in Poland, for economic and social reasons, the extraction of these energy sources have to be conserved. Hence, energy generation from these sources are assumed to follow the prediction values in Table 8 . Besides, maintaining certain portion of fossil fuel will ensure energy generation to come with affordable price. Note however that for long term solution (i.e. year 2040), natural gas will have increased generation, while generation from coal and lignite will be lower than those reported in Table 10 , due to stringent CO 2 emission limits. 8. Results and interpretation In scenarios 1, 2 and 3, the possibilities of achieving emission goals will be considered for different rates of development of RES, nuclear power and the reduction of high CO 2 -intensive energy sources (Table 10 ). Scenario 1 Scenario 1 assumed a moderate pace of development of wind energy (both onshore and offshore). The development of photovoltaic energy is assumed to be limited due to the difficulties of feeding the generated power into the outdated power grid. Moreover, scenario 1 assumes the implementation of government nuclear project, i.e. the commissioning of 4 nuclear reactors between 2030 and 2040 (see Table 10 ). Strategies for year 2030 Two cases were considered, differing in energy generation from gas and lignite sources, with their resulting EPPDs shown in Fig. 5 . Case 1 In this case, an attempt was made to meet the energy demand, while taking into account the predicted generation of all fuel sources discussed earlier. If energy generation from gas (32.20 TWh/y) and coal (41.79 TWh/y) will reach the maximum values as ​​​​in Table 10 , power generation from lignite should be reduced to 25.69 TWh/y, in order to meet the demand target. As shown in Fig. 5 , despite of minimizing the use of the most emissive fossil fuel (lignite), the emission limit of year 2030 will be exceeded by 12.59 Mt CO 2 -eq/y (= 96.76–84.17 CO 2 -eq/y). Case 2 In order to achieve the emission target at 84.17 Mt CO 2 -eq/y, excessive use of natural gas was allowed. As a result, the share of energy production for gas power plants increased by 46.5% to 47.18 TWh/y. This allows for the generation of 10.71 TWh/y of energy from lignite (decrease of 41.7% compared to case 1 ). This case may be made possible provided that natural gas supplies to Poland are increased. This is possible when floating regasification unit ships (FSRU) are launched and natural gas imports through interconnects with neighboring countries. Strategies for year 2040 Case 1 Similarly as in case 2 for year 2030, the solution to the problem of meeting the CO 2 emission limit seems to be to increase the share of natural gas. Following this solution method, increase the share of natural gas leads to a mix in which neither coal nor lignite sources are used. Generating as much as 47.18 TWh/y of energy from natural gas exceeds the emission limit by 1.98 Mt CO 2 -eq/year. Case 2 In this case, existing agricultural biomass (AB) resources were used to achieve the CO 2 emission limit. Since in this scenario this energy source was not developed until year 2030, it is possible to use the existing AB (total amount of 8 Mt) to generate an additional power of 13.28 TWh by year 2040. The use of AB made it possible to achieve the emission target for year 2040, and where energy generation from natural gas is reduced to 32.08 TWh. It is also possible to generate 1.82 TWh from coal, which keeps Polish miners employed. However, lignite power plants must be shut down in this case. Summary of scenario 1: To achieve the CO 2 emission limit for year 2030, efficient development of wind and photovoltaic energy is required. The emission limit for 2040 requires major changes. Despite the launch of four nuclear reactors, while large amounts of natural gas is used and operation of coal and lignite power plants are reduced/removed, it is not possible to achieve 85% reduction of CO 2 emission by year 2040. Additionally, it violates the agreement with Polish coal miners (where coal mining should be kept until 2049). The emission target for 2040 is achievable using at least existing 8 Mt of AB. Hence, a program for AB use should be developed or commercial program for nuclear power plant construction should be launched. These are further analyzed in scenarios 2 and 3. Scenario 2. Scenario 2 assumes faster development of onshore wind energy (than the current plan) and appropriate modernization of the power grid, thus allowing all generated photovoltaic power to the grid. As it is not possible to launch nuclear reactors before year 2030, development of onshore wind energy and photovoltaics are assumed to go faster (65.2% and 192.1%, respectively) than in scenario 1 (see Table 10 ). Similarly to scenario 1, four nuclear reactors will be commissioned by year 2040. The following cases were analyzed. Strategies for year 2030 Case 1 With large power from RES, achieving emission target while maintaining the hard coal mining industry (until year 2040) is possible in this case. On the other hand, power generation from natural gas may be reduced to 11.31 TWh/y (versus 32.20 TWh/y in Scenario 1) and allows the generation of as much as 21.63 TWh/y of energy from lignite and 41.79 TWh/y of energy from coal (see EPPD in Fig. 7 ). The energy mix in this case has the advantage of avoiding large investments for increased natural gas imports, apart from depending on imported fuels. Case 2 With large energy generation from nuclear sources and RES, it is possible to reduce emissions below the emission target for year 2030. This may be economically beneficial in case of a large increase in the purchase price of emission allowances. This energy mix makes it possible to completely shut down lignite power plants. The generation of 32.94 TWh/y of energy from natural gas is then required, which is possible with 8 GW of generating capacity (Fig. 7 line Source CC 2030 case 2 ). It is also necessary to increase the import of this fuel, e.g. through the floating marine terminal, or through gas pipelines with Lithuania and Slovakia. With such an energy mix, emissions would be lower than the target by 18.18 Mt CO 2 -eq/y (= 84.17–65.99 Mt CO 2 -eq/y). However, this case is difficult for implementation due to social reasons. Only the largest power plant and lignite mine in Bełchatów employs 8,000 people. It is not possible to retrain all workers or resettle them to other cities before year 2030. One among the sensible solution is to build a nuclear power plant in this place to employ some of the current power plant's employees. Note that this solution is currently in consideration for future implementation, but without an implementation date. Strategies for year 2040 Case 1 Energy generation by RES and 4 units of the nuclear power plant will lead to 251.75 TWh/y of power, exceeding the expected power demand in year 2040, which is 231.65 TWh/y (see EPPD in Fig. 8 ). One could conclude that power generation from coal, lignite and natural gas are unnecessary in this case. However, this conclusion may not hold true, due to the fact that much fluctuation may be experienced when there are greater share of energy generated from renewable sources. While excess energy can be exported to neighboring countries, an energy mix with a predominance of RES may cause periodic interruptions in energy supply. This issue has been discussed in detail earlier (see Section ‘Dominant share of RES in the energy mix’). In this case, 20.1 TWh of excess energy was generated. It is possible to sell it to neighboring countries. Such situation is only possible when Poland generates excess energy while its neighboring countries have energy shortages. Therefore, this is not a good strategy for managing excess energy. Additionally, the amount of energy from available sources (47.25 TWh/y) in relation to the demand for 2040 is 20.4%. This value is on the edge of the security of power supply continuity, which means very low stability of the national power supply system. For this reason, a better solution is to store the excess energy, e.g. in the form of hydrogen. As discussed in earlier section ('Dominant share of RES in the energy mix'), the P2P cycle has an efficiency of 48%. It can be calculated that 38.65 TWh (=(251.75-231.65)/(1-0.48) TWh) can be allocated to hydrogen production. By burning this hydrogen, 18.55 TWh (= 38.65*0.48 TWh) of electricity will be generated from a fully disposable hydrogen source. Summing up the entire P2P cycle, the energy demand of 231.65 TWh (= 251.75–38.65 + 18.55 TWh) is met. In this way, the percentage of energy from disposable sources increased to 28.41% (=(47.25 + 18.55)/231.65), which largely strengthens the security of continuity of energy supplies in Poland. In summary, the rapid development of wind and solar energy provide greater flexibility in deciding on use of fossil fuel sources until year 2030. This makes it possible to achieve lower emissions when the price of emission allowances increases significantly. Further rapid development of RES until 2040 creates good conditions for the use of new energy storage technologies. Such an energy mix avoid the construction of two additional commercial nuclear reactors (see scenario 3) and the investments may be diverted to offshore wind energy and energy storage technologies; the latter will improve the stability of the energy system. Scenario 3. In Scenario 3, the possibility of maintaining Polish coal mining after 2040 will be analyzed. To reduce the share of emission sources, moderate development of photovoltaics and onshore wind power will be maintained. Additionally, four reactors built by a state-owned company and two additional commercial nuclear reactors will be commissioned, before year 2040. As shown in Table 10 , the energy development plan for year 2030 is similar to that in Scenario 1, and therefore it will not be discussed. The energy mix for scenario 3 is presented in the final two columns of Table 10 . Strategies for year 2040 For Case 1 , with the assumed generation of 24.94 TWh/y from coal and 5.79 TWh/y from lignite, the total power generation will exceed its predicted demand by 4.79 TWh/y. If one were to remove natural gas from the energy mix, the EPPD shows that the emission limit will be exceeded by 19.18 Mt CO 2 -eq/y (see Fig. 9 ). Therefore, it is necessary to use less emission-intensive natural gas instead of solid fuels. Case 2 In order to achieve the emission limit for year 2040, energy generation from emission-intensive sources should be significantly reduced, e.g. to 4.67 TWh/y from coal and 2.33 TWh/y from lignite; these correspond to reduction of 81.3% and 59.8%, respectively. On the other hand, energy generation from natural gas must increase to 18.94 TWh/y. Doing this will lead to the emission limit not being violated, as shown in the EPPD in Fig. 9 . Calculations indicate that all nuclear reactors will generate energy at full capacity, which justifies the advisability of incurring high investment costs. An additional advantage of building two commercial reactors is the 40.77% (= 94.45/231.65) share of disposability sources, ensuring high stability of the energy system. In summary, if six nuclear reactors (four government and two commercial) will be commissioned, it is necessary to limit energy generation from coal and lignite significant below the predicted values of EPP2040. It is worth noting that in this scenario, energy from all nuclear reactors will be used. Therefore, at such a pace of RES development, the construction of two commercial reactors is economically justified. 9. Conclusion In this work, CEPA has been applied to analyze decarbonization options for Poland from years 2022 to 2030 and 2040. The developments of various low-emission power generation technologies were analyzed. It has been shown that the potential for RES development is much greater than that assumed in the current government program for Poland's energy transformation until 2040 (EPP2040). Unlike EPP2040, the scenario analysis took into account the more stringent EU emission targets, i.e. reducing CO 2 emissions by 55% by year 2030, and the European Commission's proposal to reduce emissions by 90% by year 2040 (as compared to the level in year 1990). The scenarios analyzed also take into account of Poland's energy security and continuity of energy supplies. It was also assumed that energy demand would increase faster than that assumed in EPP2040, due to the intensive development of electromobility. The analysis of multiple scenarios identifies priority strategies for potential implementation by the Polish government. The scenarios considered the effects resulting from the different speed of development of various energy sources, such as onshore and offshore wind energy, photovoltaics, nuclear energy and natural gas power plants as a transitional source. The possibility of maintaining Polish coal mining until year 2049 was also analyzed. In the scenarios of intensive development of RES, the need to modernize the energy transmission network and develop energy storage technologies was indicated. It has been shown that hydrogen-based P2P technology can improve the stability of the energy system. The article also indicates the possibilities, potential and positive effects resulting from the development of energy sources based on agricultural biomass. The use of this source of low-emission energy is currently neglected. Due to the very high emission intensity of the Polish energy industry, it has been shown that it is necessary to accelerate the energy transformation to achieve the assumed emission goals. Current projects to develop various energy sources show the lack of a coherent plan. In turn, the scenario analysis shows the need for coordinated development, i.e. treating the energy industry as an integrated system rather than individual sub-systems. Moving forward, in order to decarbonize the power generation sector to reach the net zero target in year 2050, it is believe that similar strategies on growing RES and nuclear are unavoidable. Furthermore, it is expected that newer strategy for CO 2 removal is necessary, especially for sectors that are inherently difficult with traditional decarbonization options. This calls for the development of negative emission technologies such as the installation of carbon caption on biomass power plants, etc. Declarations Author Contribution All authors contributed to the study conception and writing. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Grzegorz Poplewski and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. Acknowledgement Financed by the Minister of Science and Higher Education Republic of Poland within the program "Regional Excellence Initiative" References Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. (2022) Badania Statystyczne. In: Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. https://www.are.waw.pl. Accessed 24 Jul 2024 Arthur D. Little Co. 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Journal of Cleaner Production 256:120696. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120696 Supernak B (2024) Moc aktywów wiatrowych w Polsce może wzrosnąć do nawet 26,6 GW w 2030. In: Inwestycje.pl. https://inwestycje.pl/gospodarka/moc-aktywow-wiatrowych-w-polsce-moze-wzrosnac-do-nawet-266-gw-w-2030/. Accessed 22 Jul 2024 Supreme Audit Office (2022) Why we don’t make more electricity from biomass? In: Najwyższa Izba Kontroli. https://www.nik.gov.pl/en/news/why-we-don-t-make-more-electricity-from-biomass.html. Accessed 22 Jul 2024 Tan RR, Foo DCY (2007) Pinch analysis approach to carbon-constrained energy sector planning. Energy 32:1422–1429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2006.09.018 Tarequzzaman Md, Khan I, Sahabuddin Md, Al-Amin Md (2024) Strategic pathways to sustainable energy: Carbon emission pinch analysis for Bangladesh’s electricity sector. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 16:025904. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0179143 Trusewicz I (2023) Ceny gazu wróciły do poziomu sprzed pięciu lat. In: Rzeczpospolita. https://www.parkiet.com/surowce-i-paliwa/art38530181-ceny-gazu-wrocily-do-poziomu-sprzed-pieciu-lat. Accessed 22 Jul 2024 Valli L, Rossi L, Fabbri C, Sibilla F, Gattoni P, Dale BE, Kim S, Ong RG, Bozzetto S (2017) Greenhouse gas emissions of electricity and biomethane produced using the Biogasdoneright TM system: four case studies from Italy. Biofuels Bioprod Bioref 11:847–860. https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1789 Wang Y, Sun T (2012) Life cycle assessment of CO2 emissions from wind power plants: Methodology and case studies. Renewable Energy 43:30–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2011.12.017 Wieczerzak-Krusińska A (2018) Długa droga polskiej energetyki. In: Rzeczpospolita. https://www.rp.pl/biznes/art1645431-dluga-droga-polskiej-energetyki. Accessed 20 Jul 2024 Wind Industry Hub, PSEW (2024) Budowa łańcucha dostaw dla energetyki wiatrowej - plan działania. https://www.windindustry.pl/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/WIH_raport_PL.pdf WNP (2023) Energa pożycza od banków 2,64 mld zł na budowę elektrowni w Ostrołęce. In: wnp.pl. https://www.wnp.pl/energetyka/energa-pozycza-od-bankow-2-64-mld-zl-na-budowe-elektrowni-w-ostrolece,726546.html. Accessed 22 Jul 2024 World Economic Forum (2022) Accelerating the Decarbonization of Buildings: The Net-Zero Carbon Cities Building Value Framework. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Accelerating_the_Decarbonization_of_Buildings_2022.pdf Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4817694","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":344918214,"identity":"8bacffcd-3b05-403b-adf9-8bcb9ae1376b","order_by":0,"name":"Grzegorz Poplewski","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAw0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNgYeIFkB4UgAsQyRWs4gtPAQYQ9QDWMbKVr42M8efl04706+fAPzwds8DHcIa2HjyUuznrntmWVjA1uyNQ/DMyK0SPCYGfNuO2zAzMBjJs3DcJhYLXMOG7Ax8H8jWovxY96GwwY8DDxsRGrhyTFjnnHsmYEEM5ux5RwDIvwi337G+HNBzR0D+fbmhzfeVNyRI6gFZJE0A8MBBgZmENvgADE6GJg/g7VAAHFaRsEoGAWjYGQBAHcQL96lP8UAAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Rzeszow University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Grzegorz","middleName":"","lastName":"Poplewski","suffix":""},{"id":344918218,"identity":"970453ea-478e-47c9-8550-536f247509f7","order_by":1,"name":"Melvin Ting","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Nottingham Malaysia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Melvin","middleName":"","lastName":"Ting","suffix":""},{"id":344918220,"identity":"c051001c-3b05-4354-95fd-1ed0d3826967","order_by":2,"name":"Dominic C.Y. Foo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Nottingham Malaysia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dominic","middleName":"C.Y.","lastName":"Foo","suffix":""},{"id":344918224,"identity":"4ec584df-76a6-4bc5-bbd2-bed1cf14c6b6","order_by":3,"name":"Raymond R. Tan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Gokongwei College of Engineering, De La Salle University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Raymond","middleName":"R.","lastName":"Tan","suffix":""},{"id":344918225,"identity":"86733105-d812-49dc-b9ba-503c879143d0","order_by":4,"name":"Yin Ling Tan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Curtin University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yin","middleName":"Ling","lastName":"Tan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-28 17:11:41","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4817694/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4817694/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-025-03127-7","type":"published","date":"2025-01-29T15:56:56+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":63365979,"identity":"64b54dfe-3ac4-4d3e-bca2-ead531d23acb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:15:25","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":19120,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEnergy planning pinch diagram (EPPD): (a) infeasible; (b) feasible\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/e4963fc5868f4690146f0a8c.png"},{"id":63366625,"identity":"237d74e2-425f-4598-8db5-f748a11f29d9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:23:25","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":64937,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEPPD for power generation in year 2022 (base year)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/de06bd6eccd59a58169508a0.png"},{"id":63367477,"identity":"dec36786-7054-49ae-8710-ae885bc34ac0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:31:25","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":56881,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe EPPD for years 2030 and 2040 (based on EPP2040) with electromobility demand CC\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/851318296f05f11e0fa4117c.png"},{"id":63367478,"identity":"e6a4339e-5b6e-4081-9a7a-b8d971a87254","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:31:25","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":20826,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe impact of electromobility development on electricity demand\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/ce1b1541ed4defcdbffbe245.png"},{"id":63366628,"identity":"49e93e4c-eb3f-4a53-acdb-aa611bfba2c9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:23:25","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":38283,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEPPD for Scenario 1, based on demand of year 2030\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/47e6ee0db464473c18bb04aa.png"},{"id":63365973,"identity":"44087848-e8e1-4886-a5a7-707636f9b8bf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:15:25","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":40156,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEPPD for Scenario 1, based on demand of year 2040\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/f4110bc273cb14ef6fc30c74.png"},{"id":63366627,"identity":"81449579-1572-4020-9b8b-5ad78a44cd17","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:23:25","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":42564,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEPPD for Scenario 2, based on demand of year 2030\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/1dca257ed7e8788955bfbd8e.png"},{"id":63365976,"identity":"64a34ddd-0ea9-4d48-89ff-25e6a7bb16eb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:15:25","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":35792,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEPPD for Scenario 2, based on demand of year 2040\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/21945f054944be5c4e21d50c.png"},{"id":63368777,"identity":"856a1a9c-ad36-4c16-ba55-6cb68397a9c9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:39:25","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":41760,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEPPD for Scenario 3, based on demand of year 2040\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/e99fdb17be5ca92569b8dc5b.png"},{"id":75351151,"identity":"432d8e9f-33f8-464f-943c-df4099a3b33a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-03 16:05:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1731704,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/85f0a0e1-7408-4872-9069-953e951ca222.pdf"},{"id":63365972,"identity":"5ec41543-37ee-4e08-abdf-1ead222641ae","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-27 11:15:25","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":22250,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Appendix.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4817694/v1/6e4b614488f3a177102bdf89.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis for Transformation of Polish Power Generation Sector","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe Paris Agreement ratified by 196 countries in 2015 has the aim to cap global warming by the end of the 21st Century to well below 2\u0026deg;C, and preferably closer to 1.5\u0026deg;C, above pre-industrial levels. Doing so will require carbon neutrality by mid-century and negative emissions beyond that time. Despite this development, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to increase in the past few years. Extreme weather incidents are reported in various parts of the world on a regular basis, which is believed to be the result of climate change. The atmospheric concentration of the most important GHG, carbon dioxide (CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e), has exceeded 420 ppm at early year 2023 (Scripps Institution of Oceanography \u003cspan citationid=\"CR70\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), which is well above the safe Planetary Boundary of 350 ppm (Rockstr\u0026ouml;m et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR64\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e; Steffen et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR73\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Hence, serious efforts are necessary to ensure the decelerate the growth of GHG emissions, and then reverse the trend towards the net zero emission target in the span of one human generation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS), which is a cap-and-trade carbon market system, remains one of the main mechanism for reducing CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions. By gradually reducing the number of emission allowances and increasing their price, the EU ETS enforces emission reduction. By the end of year 2023, the EU ETS only covered sectors that are easiest in its modification, i.e., power and heat generation, as well as energy-intensive industrial plants. The long-term goal is for the EU to achieve climate neutrality by year 2050. In order to achieve this important objective, the European Commission pushed through the \u0026ldquo;Fit for 55\u0026rdquo; plan, which assumes an acceleration of emission reduction to 55% by 2030 (as compared to 1990 level). In April 2023, the European Parliament voted to extend the EU ETS to the air and maritime transport sectors. The process of reducing free allowances for aviation is gradual and will be completed in 2026. After 2026, airlines will have to buy 100% of emission allowances at auction prices (European Parliament \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Another measure aimed at reducing emissions by 55% was the inclusion of construction and land transport in the EU ETS system. According to data presented at the World Economic Forum, the construction and operation of buildings are responsible for 38% of global CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions (World Economic Forum \u003cspan citationid=\"CR85\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Among these, 28% of the emissions come from the operation of buildings, while the remaining 10% are due to energy consumption needed to produce materials and technologies used for the construction industry. Therefore, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union reached an agreement in December 2022 on the creation of a separate ETS2 system for the transport and buildings sectors from year 2027 (International Carbon Action Partnership \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe EU policy on CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions is flexible and adapted to the current political and economic situation. The war in Eastern Europe made it necessary to change fuel sources to ensure energy security. For this reason, the \u0026ldquo;REPowerEU\u0026rdquo; plan was introduced, with the goal to end EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels, and to tackle climate crisis. The REPowerEU plan focuses specifically on energy savings, diversification of energy supply and accelerated deployment of renewable energy (European Commision \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVarious models and decision support tools have been developed for better management of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions. One such technique is \u003cem\u003ecarbon emission pinch analysis\u003c/em\u003e (CEPA). In the seminal work of CEPA (Tan and Foo \u003cspan citationid=\"CR77\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e), a graphical technique was introduced for the optimum allocation of energy sources to their demand, subject to maximum CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions limit at each regions/sectors. An equivalent tool based on algebraic technique was later introduced by (Foo et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e) to allow the procedure to be implemented using spreadsheet models. CEPA has become an established tool for carbon management research. Textbook comprehensive tutorial on CEPA can be found in a recent book (Foo and Tan \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). The technique has shown its applications in many countries, such as China (Li et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e), India, European Union (Su et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR74\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), United Kingdom (Cossutta et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), Baltic States (Baležentis et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), Nigeria (Salman et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR68\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), Trinidad and Tobago (Ramsook et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR62\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), Bangladesh (Tarequzzaman et al. 2024), to name a few.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePoland aims to achieve net zero emission by 2050, inline with the rest of the European Union (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). However, no official plan has been announced on how to achieve this net zero target to date. The path towards net zero is particularly challenging for Poland due to its dependency on fossil fuels. In particular, coal and lignite still account for 72.3% of its gross electricity mix (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). The gap between the net zero goal and the current state of the energy system presents a daunting challenge for both policymakers and researchers. Systematic decision support tools can potentially provide insights for planning a viable decarbonization roadmap for Poland. Hence, CEPA may be used to provide insights on potential decarbonization strategies of Polish energy generation sector, which is the focus of this work. The paper is structured as follows. In the following section, the current state of Polish energy generation sector will be discussed. This is followed by the description of the CEPA tool. Next, several scenarios proposed for the decarbonization of Polish energy generation sector for years 2030, 2040 and 2050 will be discussed.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Methodology – carbon emission pinch analysis (CEPA)","content":"\u003cp\u003eAn important CEPA tool for optimum planning of energy resources is energy planning pinch diagram (EPPD; Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Steps for plotting the EPPD are given as follows (Tan and Foo, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR77\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e):\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy demands and sources are arranged in the ascending order of their CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e intensity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe \u003cem\u003edemand composite curve\u003c/em\u003e is plotted on a CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission vs. energy diagram, in ascending order of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e intensity. The latter is represented by the gradient of each demand segment. The demand composite curve represents the total energy requirement of the various sectors/region that are indeed of energy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe \u003cem\u003esource composite curve\u003c/em\u003e is plotted on the same CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission vs. energy diagram, thus forming the EPPD. The source composite curve is a total representation of all energy resources available for use. As the energy sources have been arranged in ascending order of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e intensities, gradient of each source segment also indicates the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e intensity of a given energy resource.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe EPPD is infeasible if the source composite curve stays above and/or to the left of the demand composite curve, as shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e(a). To restore its feasibility, the source composite curve is shifted to the right, until it stays entirely below and to the right of the demand composite curve, as shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e (b). Due to the horizontal shift, the deficit of energy resource is fulfilled by renewables. The minimum amount of the renewables is given by the opening on the left of the EPPD (see Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e(b)). On the other hand, the opening on the right end of the EPPD represents the excess energy sources that should be discarded, due to its violation of the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission limit.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"3. The state of the Polish energy sector","content":"\u003cp\u003ePoland is a country in central Europe with an area of 312,700 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e and a population of 37.8\u0026nbsp;million. The Polish economy has been developing at a stable pace for over 25 years and is the sixth largest economy in the European Union, and GDP per capita is above 70% of the EU average (based on purchasing power parity) (Polish Investment \u0026amp; Trade Agency 2023). According to data from the International Monetary Fund, Poland's GDP for year 2023 is approximately USD 748.89\u0026nbsp;billion (Maciuch \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Polish energy sector is highly emission-intensive because it is mostly based on hard coal and lignite. The share of coal in 2022 gross electricity production was 72.3% (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). For this reason, Poland ranks 7th in the world in terms of the unit emission intensity of all economic sectors (2.84 tons of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e/toe). The current modernization activities of the electricity industry in years 1990\u0026ndash;2022 (e.g. modernization of coal-fired power plants, development of onshore wind energy, integration of the Polish transmission system with the entire Western Europe, intensive development of photovoltaic sources in recent years, etc. (Wieczerzak-Krusińska \u003cspan citationid=\"CR82\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e)) resulted in a decrease in CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions by 25.2% (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). However, the specific CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission of the Polish electricity sector amounted to 666 g CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e/kWh and ranks last in the EU (European Environment Agency \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). For comparison, the average emission intensity for the entire European Union in 2022 was approximately 251 g CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e/kWh EU (European Environment Agency \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e), which is 62% lower than that of Polish electricity sector. The decline in emissions from the electricity sector in Poland since the introduction of the EU ETS in 2005 was reported as 11.5% (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). The scale of the problem should be taken into account. From the beginning of the 20th century, the Polish power industry was fueled mainly by hard coal and later by lignite. The use of other (renewable) energy sources on a larger scale only began at the end of the 20th century. For example, the first unit of the Polish nuclear power plant will be launched no earlier than 2033 (National Atomic Energy Agency \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Therefore, Poland has a slower starting point for its decarbonization, as compared to its other EU counterparts. On February 2024, the new Deputy Minister of Climate stated that Poland is focusing on two goals, i.e. greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 55% by year 2030, as compared to year 1990 level; and next is to achieve climate neutrality by year 2050 (Deputy Minister of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). On the same day, the European Commission recommended reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 emission levels (European Commission \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). However, this is the value proposed as the initial value for negotiations with EU countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this section, the current practice of Polish power generation sector in year 2022 is first analyzed. This is used as base year where comparison may be made with future year scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapacity and gross electricity generation of individual energy sources in the Polish energy mix at the end of 2022 (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy sources\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eInstalled capacity [GW]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy generation \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[TWh]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePhotovoltaics\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWind\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHydropower\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiomass\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiomass co-combustion\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiogas\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCoal\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e81.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLignite\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e47.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNatural gas\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePumped storage\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTotal\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e59.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e179.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e shows the capacity and gross electricity generation of individual energy sources at the end of year 2022, with a total installed power generation capacity of 59.9 GW. The most abundant energy source in Poland is hard coal, which contributes a total of 45.8% (81.9 TWh) on its total sources (179 TWh), which is then followed by lignite that occupies a total of 26.4% (47.3 TWh). In other words, a total of 72.2% of electricity was generated from these two fossil fuels in year 2022 (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). It is very obvious that these two \u0026ldquo;dirty\u0026rdquo; sources (with high CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e intensity) have to be replaced by low- or carbon-neutral renewables in coming decades in order for Polish power generation sector to achieve its decarbonization goal set out in Energy Policy of Poland Until 2040 (EPP2040) (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021a\u003c/span\u003e). Meanwhile, due to the embargo on fuel supplies from Russia, gas prices have increased significantly and its availability has significantly decreased. For this reason, significant decrease in energy generation from natural gas was recorded in year 2022, i.e. 11.7 TWh (as compared to 15.3 TWh in 2021) (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). The decrease of 3.6 TWh of generation of electricity from natural gas in 2022 (as compared to year 2021) was replaced by an increase of generation of 4 TWh of photovoltaic energy in 2022. The generation of electricity from hard coal also decreased by 4.7 TWh, while production from lignite increased by 1.3 TWh (Dusiło 2023), despite the high price of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission allowances.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOn the other hand, an increase of 5.5 GW was observed for the capacity of renewable energy sources (RES), i.e. photovoltaics, wind, hydropower, biomass, biomass co-combustion, reaching a total of 22.9 GW (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). Note that biomass co-combustion has not been added to the installed capacity, because the process is part of the coal power plants. Poland's hydrological resources are among the lowest in Europe. Additionally, small differences in levels make the country's hydropower potential relatively small. Therefore, no increase in hydroelectric power capacity is planned in EPP2040. The increase of RES capacity was due to the intensive development of photovoltaics (3.18 GW), mainly private micro-installations that are connected to the grid on a prosumer basis. At the end of year 2022, there were a total of 1.2\u0026nbsp;million photovoltaic micro-installations, including 356,000 connected in 2022 itself (Pająk \u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Hence, photovoltaic energy generation was reported to be doubled as compared to that in 2021. Total installed capacity in photovoltaic installations reached 12.1 GW at the end of 2022 (prospe 1), while EPP2040 projected 5.1 GW by 2035 and 9.8 GW by 2040 (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021a\u003c/span\u003e). This unplanned development of the photovoltaic energy sector results from making it possible to reduce the electricity bills of private customers who produce electricity from their own small photovoltaic installations. These changes have made photovoltaics important for the Polish energy system. In EPP2040, it is assumed that the newly installed photovoltaic energy will happen at the local level. In other words, these micro-installations of photovoltaic on house roofs can partially cater for self-consumption in the house. Excess energy is discharged to the public grid which is treated as energy storage facility. Note however that this causes problems with maintaining the proper voltage in the grid. Due to greater generation of energy (179 TWh) than demand (177.1 TWh), Poland was an energy exporter for the first time in 7 years, with RES exceeded 20% of the mix (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). It is worth mentioning that the development of household photovoltaics in year 2022 was positively influenced by the government subsidy program (\u0026lsquo;My electricity\u0026rsquo;) that facilitated the purchase and installation of PV installations, as well as the prosumer settlement system for next 15 years; the latter guarantees low electricity bills (Globenergia \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 2022, Poland achieved a record result in the annual installation of its wind energy generation, adding 1.5 GW of new wind capacity. In this category, Poland took 7th place in Europe. Achieving this result was possible due to the implementation of wind projects for which investors obtained construction permits by 2016 (Kiwacka \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). After 2016, it was no longer possible to obtain permission to build wind farms due to the lack of suitable land. Further investments were blocked by a distance law provision (10H), which states that the protection area around the wind farm should be 10 times the height of the wind turbines (Journal of Laws of the Republic of Poland \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e). Poland is not a densely populated country, but scattered housing development has limited the areas for the construction of large wind farms. Thus, Act 10H was revised in February 2023. After a strategic environmental impact assessment, the width of the protection zone was revised to 700 m, which allows 18,000 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e of new areas for the potential development of new wind farms (Journal of Laws of the Republic of Poland \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Additionally, it is planned to modernize the existing wind farms, i.e. raise the towers and replace the turbine with 30% more powerful ones, so to increase the energy generation up to 100%. This is due to stronger and more stable wind at higher altitudes (Kurtyka \u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). However, further development of large wind and photovoltaic farms requires large investments in the expansion and modernization of transmission networks, because it is very difficult to obtain permission to connect renewable energy farms to the grid at present state (Kierunekenergetyka \u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnother problem to be resolved is the development of energy storage for the further increase of RES. Unfortunately, energy storage technologies are still very expensive. At present, the temporary solution used in Poland is the energy storage in pumped-storage power plants. This solution ensures high energy storage and recovery efficiency of 0.7. Due to the development of RES in Poland, several power plants of this type will be constructed in the near future (Elżbieciak and Derski \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4. CEPA for Year 2022","content":"\u003cp\u003eFor this work, 2022 was selected as the base year since this is the most recent period where the data is available. The usage of all energy sources were reported by (Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. 2022). In order for fair comparison, the emission factors for energy sources were calculated and summarized in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e (column 2).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote that the following assumptions were made in plotting the EPPD in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmission factors of renewable and nuclear energy sources take into account the carbon footprint of these sources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndustrial power plants are characterized by the same emission index value as commercial power plants powered by hard coal, thus they are summed up in the 'coal' category,\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy exports and imports to neighboring countries was omitted as they are insignificant.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e contains data from the 'Energy Transition in Poland\u0026rsquo; (ETP23) report (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e) on electricity generation in the base year of 2022 and forecasts for 2030 and 2040 from EPP2040. These data cannot be directly compared because the ETP23 report gives values for total gross energy generated, while EPP2040 gives net values, i.e. including energy consumption by power plants and distribution losses of 5.7% (Schneider Electric Polska \u003cspan citationid=\"CR69\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Knowing the value of the total net production of 149.6 TWh (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e), the generated energy was recalculated, assuming that the RESs losses only occur at their distribution. The calculated coefficient of energy losses for emission power plants amounted to 13.7% of the total generation (see \u003cspan refid=\"Sec10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003eAppendix\u003c/span\u003e A1).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e also contains emission factors for electricity sources that are used in Poland. Most emission factors were taken from the work of Cossutta et al. (Cossutta et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Since lignite is used less often in the EU, its emission factor is not reported in the literature. Hence, the emission factor value for lignite of 1.2519 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e/TWh was calculated by dividing the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission for lignite of 48.2 Mt/year by the net energy of 38.5 TWh/year generated from this fuel in 2022 (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). From Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e, the emission factor for offshore wind farms has a higher value of 0.0112 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/TWh (as compared to onshore wind turbines) due to the transmission of energy from sea to land (Wang and Sun \u003cspan citationid=\"CR81\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e).The emission factor for photovoltaic panels was taken from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (Pachauri et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e). Pumped-storage power plants do not generate electricity, but they store excess energy produced mainly during efficient wind and intense insolation. Therefore, the emission factor for this source was set to zero. For this reason, pumped storage power plants are not included in EPP2040, although they will be developed and used to store excess energy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith the above-mentioned emission factors, the EPPD is plotted in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e. A demand composite curve is also included in the EPPD in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e, in order to compare whether the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission in year 2022 exceeded the allowed emission limit. As shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e, the demand composite curve does not intersect with the source composite curve. This means that CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions (128.6 Mt) are lower than those assumed in EPP2040 (133 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e) (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021a\u003c/span\u003e). The change in year 2022 was resulted from rapid development of renewable sources (mainly photovoltaics) and increased generation of electricity from wind farms. Both of these factors lead to the decrease of generation from hard coal and natural gas. For this reason, emissions from power plants and combined heat and power (CHP) plants fell 0.9% from the previous year by 1.3 Mt of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). Even thorough the annual changes in CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions are very much depending on political and economic situations in the country, the long-term emission trend for Poland is downward. For example, Polish emissions from lignite and hard coal (electricity and district heating) fell by 20% (-12.4 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq) and 12% (-12.7 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq), respectively in the last decade (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). On the other hand, emissions from natural gas increased by 142% (+\u0026thinsp;3.8 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq) for the same period (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCompared to year 2021, the demand for energy also decreased by almost 1 TWh. This can be explained by the increase of energy consumed directly from solar panels by prosumers. Note however that self-consumption of solar prosumers is not being monitored.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe fact that EPP2040 CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission target could be met in year 2022 shows that Poland's energy transformation is in the right direction. However, it should be noted that EPP2040 (which was approved in February 2021) is no longer valid due to the recently adopted EU programs to accelerate decarbonization effort of Europe. Changes in Poland's energy system may therefore prove insufficient in the face of faster changes required by the EU.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData for the power generation sources in Poland (emission factor in Mt/TWh; energy in TWh) (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021a\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"6\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmission factor\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2022\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(gross generation (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e))\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2022\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(net generation)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiomass\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.1649\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiogas\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0250 \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(Valli et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR80\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNuclear power\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0716\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e33.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHydropower\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0257\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWind energy, onshore\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0430\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e22.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWind energy, offshore\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0542 \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(Wang and Sun \u003cspan citationid=\"CR81\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e39.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePhotovoltaics\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0440\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNatural gas\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.4116\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e52.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e67.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePumped storage\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0000\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCoal (commercial power industry)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1172\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e81.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e66.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e26.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLignite\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2519\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e47.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e38.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e41.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eTotal\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e179.0\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e149.6\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e181.1\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e204.2\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn the following sub-sections, different scenarios for the planning of years 2030 and 2040 will be discussed.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"5. The impact of electromobility on electricity demand for years 2030 and 2040","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe data for preparing the EPPD was taken from EPP2040 (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021a\u003c/span\u003e), and summarized in the last two columns of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e. The EPPD for years 2030 and 2040 are presented in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e, the calculated CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions for years 2030 and 2040 have slightly exceeded the limit stated in EPP2040, by 6.8 and 5.1 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/y, respectively. However, many changes have occurred since the introduction of EPP2040. One such major change was the introduction of the 'Fit for 55' package, which includes a ban on combustion cars sale from year 2035. The increase in the share of electric and hydrogen-powered cars will be forced by a gradual increase in taxation on fossil fuel. This means that electrification of road transportation will occur much faster than the natural process. This will lead to growing demand for electricity and hydrogen in order to power these cars.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo estimate the increase of electricity demand due to increased electric cars in Poland, the following assumptions are made:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 2022, a total of 29\u0026nbsp;million vehicles were used in Poland (GUS \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), which ranks 4th among European countries. These are to be completely replaced by electric or hydrogen cars by 2050.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eDue to the constant population in Poland, the growing number of professions that do not require leaving home and the growing role of public transport and taxis, the number of passenger cars in 2050 will be the same as in 2022.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntensive replacement of combustion cars with electric or hydrogen cars will take place in a linear manner between years 2030\u0026ndash;2050.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe average annual mileage of car in Poland is 8,600 km (Piesowicz \u003cspan citationid=\"CR52\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe amount of electricity needed to travel 100 km is equal to 16\u0026ndash;28 kWh (Frączyk \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Hence, an average of 22 kWh/100 km was assumed for calculations.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith complete replacement of electric and hydrogen cars by year 2050, the net amount of electricity needed is calculated as 54.9 TWh/y (=\u0026thinsp;29 Mil x 8600 x 22/100 TWh/y). Hence, the expected linear increase in electricity demand in the years 2030\u0026ndash;2050 is shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e. Note that for years 2045\u0026ndash;2050, the electricity demand were extrapolated based on the trend estimated in EPP2040.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe increased demand for electricity caused by the growth of electromobility is shown by the appropriate line in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAfter taking into account the energy demand for electric cars and for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels, the energy shortfall for year 2040 is calculated as amounts to 27.45 TWh (=\u0026thinsp;231.65\u0026ndash;204.2 TWh), as compared to the predicted value in EPP2040. In the following sections, various scenarios will be proposed in order to fulfil the amount of energy generation, as well as to limit the level of emissions according to EU plans.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"6. General strategies for deep decarbonization","content":"\u003cp\u003eTo achieve deep decarbonization objective, the following strategies are proposed for Poland.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eGrowth of wind energy\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt is expected that wind energy will play a major role in decarbonizing the energy generation sector. As shown in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e, onshore wind energy will have a steady grow in the coming decade until year 2030, i.e. where available land for the construction of wind farms is exhausted. As discussed earlier, the amendment to the law (Act 10H) on available land has encourage the growth of wind farms in Poland (Journal of Laws of the Republic of Poland \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). At present, Poland does not have any offshore wind farms. Hence, it has higher growing potential than the onshore wind farms. The Baltic Sea is very attractive due to its good wind conditions and lower depths. It is expected that by year 2030, several offshore wind farms will be put into operation in the Polish coastal zone of the Baltic Sea, and their strong development is expected until 2040. Poland's late start of the construction of offshore wind farms may prove beneficial due to access to modernized and more efficient wind turbines in recent years. The first project of this type is the 'Baltic Power' project, which will be implemented in 2024\u0026ndash;2026 (BalticPower \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The report of the Polish Wind Energy Association estimates that it is possible to deploy wind farms with a total capacity of 33 GW in the Polish territorial waters of the Baltic Sea. Offshore wind farms of this capacity would generate approximately 130 TWh of electricity annually (PWEA \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Therefore, it is necessary to expand the transmission infrastructure to distribute such large energy generation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eGrowth of natural gas\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEven though natural gas is a fossil fuel, it is still cleaner than oil and coal. Hence, it is can serve as a transition fuel towards deeper decarbonization. The IEA has reported that under a sustainable development scenario, natural gas use will increase to 41% in year 2040 (from 28% in year 2018), which is then followed by 40% of oil and 19% of coal (IEA \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Due to the Ukraine war economic sanctions towards Russia (including natural gas supplies), the prices of natural gas has rose to the highest level in history. Therefore, although the capacity of gas power plants has increased to 6.8 GW in 2022, energy production with this fuel was very unprofitable and decreased to 11.7 TWh in year 2022 (from 15.3TWh in previous year) (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). Subsequently, new LPG suppliers is found to replace Russian Gazprom, and hence natural gas became cheaper since February 2023 (Trusewicz \u003cspan citationid=\"CR79\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). With the completion of the Norway-Denmark-Poland gas pipeline (Baltic Pipe) in September 2022, Poland's gas supply situation has become stable. Hence, the use of natural gas as a transition fuel (to abandon coal and lignite) has become possible.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor this reason, the construction of several natural gas power plants has began in 2023. For example, construction of a 560 MW natural gas power plant (by ORLEN) is scheduled to be completed in 2025. The advantage of this type of modern power plants is its ability to burn a mixture of methane and hydrogen. Hydrogen is the fuel of the future that can be produced in a zero-emission way, e.g. via solar power. An additional advantage of the gas power plants is its quick start-up time (ranging between 30\u0026ndash;90 minutes). This makes it possible to quickly respond to fluctuations in power generated by wind and solar power plants. The second natural gas power plant currently under construction is the power plant in Ostrołęka with a capacity of 745MW (WNP \u003cspan citationid=\"CR84\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).The Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) technology used in this power plant allows for two-stage electricity production, i.e. gas turbine in the first stage, and hot exhaust gases in the second stage with steam turbine. The CCGT has many advantages over traditional steam turbines, such as increased efficiency (by 50%), lower investment cost (by 30%), higher reliability, etc. Moreover, CCGT blocks interact well with unstable RES because they have a high startup speed (Eltel Networks \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe largest ongoing investment by Polish Energy Group is the construction of two gas units with a total capacity of 1,400 MW at the Dolna Odra Power Plant by 2024. In 2024, the construction of a 450 to 600 MW CCGT units in Gdańsk and Kozienice will begin. CCGT turbines will replace technically exploited coal blocks that are unprofitable due to high CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions. For example, the coal-fired power plant in Rybnik will be replaced by a 882 MW CCGT unit by the end of 2026 (Ciszak \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo ensure sufficient gas supplies to Poland, further diversification of this raw material supply is planned. The new floating marine terminal will be completed by 2028. Two floating regasification unit (FSRU) ships with regasification capacities of 6.1 and 4.5\u0026nbsp;billion m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e/y will be connected to the terminal (Kadej \u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eReduction of lignite and hard coal\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBoth of these fossil fuels are currently in use widely in Poland, due to their large availability and the large number of power plants built prior to the rise of climate change concern. Abandoning the use of coal and lignite for sustainable power generation is necessary. Unfortunately, the Polish energy system is highly dependent on coal, i.e. highest among European countries (70.7% of energy generated in 2022). Thus, the reduction of lignite and hard coal will be very expensive and protracted. Another factor for consideration is the large number of employees in coal mining and processing. The Polish government will have to deal with this problem due to EU regulations. Currently, Polish coal-fired power plants are co-financed under \u0026ldquo;capacity market\u0026rdquo;. In short, it is a mechanism for rewarding energy producers for their readiness to work. The government has negotiated an extension of this mechanism of subsidizing the oldest and most emission-intensive coal-fired power plants from 2025 to 2028. The system of subsidizing the newest coal-fired power plants will be in force until 2035. After this date, energy generation in these power plants will be economically scarce (Grzeszak \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The European Union supports the process of abandoning coal. For example, Poland received EUR 5\u0026nbsp;billion from the REPowerEU program in December 2023 for investments in green energy and its associated technologies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eUse of nuclear energy\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePoland does not have a nuclear power plant. A nuclear power plant was built in years 1982\u0026ndash;1989, but was abandoned after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. From the point of view of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions, nuclear energy is classified as clean because it does not result in direct greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, EPP2040 plans to use nuclear energy as a stable and emission-free energy source.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrently, there is no cheap and efficient RES energy storage technology. Therefore, the energy system should be partly based on baseload technologies, i.e. with high stability of energy production. According to (Regulation of the Minister of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR63\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), the value of the typical availability of nuclear plants is very high and amounts to 96.76%. According to the report of the Polish transmission system operator (PSE \u003cspan citationid=\"CR59\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), disposable sources should approximately constitute 18\u0026ndash;20% of the peak demand for power in Polish conditions. This value will be taken into account in scenarios for Poland, in which the most important goal is to ensure stable energy supplies with a capacity that meets demand. The long annual operating time of a nuclear reactor as well as the controllability of power generation contribute to achieving this goal.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Polish Nuclear Power Program (PNPP) was published in the Journal of Laws on October 2020 (National Atomic Energy Agency \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e).Elements of this program were also included in EPP2040. Nuclear energy has advantages of low cost of electricity generation, high stability and controllability, low greenhouse gas emissions, etc. Despite its disadvantages such as high investment costs and radioactive waste disposal problems, Poland decided to base its energy sector on this technology. The current government maintains the need to build nuclear power plants in Poland, but the construction of the reactors is still in the preparatory phase (KRO \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eDevelopment of energy storage technologies and hydrogen energy\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe main disadvantage of power generation from RES is its dependence on weather. If the energy system contains a high percentage of RES, it is necessary to have energy storage so that the excess energy may be store for future use when energy deficit is experienced. Large scale energy storage technology are based on the synthesis of energy compounds. These technologies are generally known as power-to-X (P2X), where X may take the form of ammonia (P2A), gaseous fuel (P2G), green hydrogen (P2H) or liquid fuel (P2L). These technologies are currently in the research and development phase.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNo Polish energy transformation program included information on electricity supplies stabilization using Power-to-Power technology (P2P) prior to year 2021. Only on November 2021, the Polish Parliament passed the Polish Hydrogen Strategy until 2040 (PHS2040) (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021b\u003c/span\u003e). The goal of PHS2040 is to produce low-emission hydrogen for the use in power industry, transport and industry. The main plans of PHS2040 are to support research and development of technologies related to the production of green hydrogen, conversion of hydrogen into other fuels, storage of hydrogen and its direct conversion into energy. PHS2040 will also support the construction of pilot installations in the above-mentioned areas on an increasingly larger scale. For the support policy for companies dealing with green hydrogen technologies to be effective, it is necessary to create a national support program for building a hydrogen economy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHowever, the most important thing is to adopt appropriate legal provisions enabling the use of EU and national support programs. For example, the definition of hydrogen energy in the RED II directive in year 2023 was crucial. This definition states clearly the method of hydrogen generation in accordance with the Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO). At the level of EU legislation, the RED III directive was adopted at the end of year 2023. It is necessary to transfer the provisions of RED III directive into Polish legislation. This allows projects to be properly prepared to meet the objectives of the RED III directive.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA necessary condition for the profitable use of hydrogen technologies in the energy industry is a large excess of electricity production from RES. This can be achieved with the intensive development of offshore wind energy along with the free development of photovoltaics, unrestricted by the possibilities of energy transfer through power grids. An example of this type of energy mix is ​​discussed in this paper in scenario 2.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe goals of the EU RePower program for green hydrogen production are 10\u0026nbsp;million t/y in year 2030. According to forecasts for year 2050, apart from transport (177 Mt), hydrogen will be used mainly in industry (110 Mt), primarily in chemical (ammonia and methanol production), as well as the iron and steel production sectors (direct iron reduction process). However, the use of hydrogen in the oil refining process are expected to decrease, i.e. from 41 Mt in 2022 to 10 Mt in 2050 (Rzeczycki \u003cspan citationid=\"CR67\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Currently, there are no examples of using green hydrogen for energy storage. This is due to the fact that a large percentage of energy is still produced from stable emission sources. This situation will change as traditional fossil power plants will be replaced by unstable RES sources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Poland, the effects of the first hydrogen projects are currently emerging, such as the research and development project launched in year 2023 with a high-temperature electrolyzer in a cogeneration plant in Elbląg (Helbin \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). This is the first installation of this type in the world operating together with a combined heat and power plant. This high-temperature electrolysis project aims to reduce energy consumption of hydrogen production. The installation converts the produced hydrogen into electricity using a fuel cell. Another project is low-emission hydrogen produced from biomethane in Trzebinia (Helbin \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The first local government hydrogen company, Hydro Sanok, is also an innovative project. The company's goal is to transform the energy system of the city of Sanok with the participation of RES and renewable hydrogen (Helbin \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). An example of a future project is green hydrogen plant with a capacity of approximately 105 MW and a planned production volume of 13,000 t H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e/year. The factory will be built in the Polish industrial region (Upper Silesia). Green hydrogen will be intended for heavy industry and zero-emission transport. Another project underway is the construction of an installation for the production of green hydrogen with a capacity of 5 MW in Nowa Sarzyna. This hydrogen will be transformed using P2L technology into fuel for air transport. Such fuel will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in high-emission air transport (Blaczkowska \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). In June 2024, the first electrolyzer in Poland with a capacity of 5 MW was launched for the production of green hydrogen (Pająk \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Green hydrogen is expected to be used for various purposes, such refueling buses, in which are currently fueled by hydrogen from fossil sources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eDominant share of RES in the energy mix\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBalancing of energy demand and generation is not tantamount to achieving the basic goal of energy security. Energy generation with RES are characterized by fluctuations due to weather and seasonality. If the share of RES in the energy mix is ​​high, energy generation may be too small in relation to current needs. On the other hand, it may be necessary to disconnect the RES from the power grid when it is too much in excess. Currently, despite relatively low energy generation of RES in Poland (27.1% (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e)),energy lost in the first 4 months of 2024 was reported to be 400 GWh (CIRE \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024a\u003c/span\u003e). With the inevitable increase in the share of RES, this effect will be more apparent. The state of energy deficiency is much worse. In unfavorable weather conditions, energy generation may fail to meet the minimum power requirement, despite of energy is imported from neighboring countries. For this reason, it is necessary to store large amount of energy during excess generation period, and use it during energy shortage. It becomes necessary to use high-capacity energy storage facilities. A promising technology is electrolytic production of hydrogen, with efficiency estimated at 67\u0026ndash;81% (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). It is expected that the development of this technology may lead to an efficiency of 80\u0026ndash;90% by year 2050 (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). Technologies for transforming hydrogen into fuels that are safer to store and burn are currently being developed. These are low-efficiency processes, e.g. methanation has an efficiency of 58% (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). Therefore, hydrogen should be stored and used as an energy fuel and a substrate in industry. In Poland, this is possible because geological structures contain the so-called salt caverns. These are tight, deep underground voids, currently used in Poland to store natural gas (Energetyka24 \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). The usefulness of caverns for storing hydrogen for petrochemical purposes has already been proven (DISE Energy and PWEA 2021). The combustion efficiency of pure or methane-doped hydrogen in CCGT systems adapted for this purpose is approximately 60% and is the same as for energy production using fuel cells (Drozdowski \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). With the previously mentioned 80% electrolysis efficiency, the efficiency of P2P transformation via hydrogen is 48% (=\u0026thinsp;0.6 x 0.8). This value will be used for analysis in scenario 2.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eIncreased use of biomass and biogas\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe use of wood as fuel for electricity generation in Poland is theoretically possible. Poland has a forest coverage of 30.8%, which is close to the EU (32.2%) and world average (30.6%). Despite large forest resources, Poland does not have wood that can be used to produce electricity on a large scale. In addition, the availability of timber has significantly decreased as a result of introduction of economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus. Before the war, Poland imported 26.8% of wood and wooden products from Belarus, 5.3% from Russia and 10% from Ukraine. Most of the imported firewood and waste wood, as much as 64%, came from Belarus (PKOBP - Department of Economic Analysis \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe report prepared by the Polish Supreme Audit Office (Supreme Audit Office \u003cspan citationid=\"CR76\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) confirms the difficulties with obtaining firewood in Poland. The report stated that the Polish biomass market was unpredictable due to significant price fluctuations or the lack of a coherent policy in terms of development of biomass fuels. As a consequence, contracts with providers for a period of producing energy sold as a result of auctions could not be guaranteed. Previous support systems for the generation of electricity from biofuels turned out to be ineffective in the Polish reality.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe policy should be revised to encourage the use of biomass. Note that biomass is considered carbon-neutral as it captures CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e from the atmosphere during photosynthesis. For this reason, no emission fee is charged in the case of biomass combustion. An additional advantage of biomass energy is that, it is less influenced by weather condition (relative to solar and wind energy). The RED III directive maintains woody biomass as a RES. However, it limits its use due to the need for increased nature protection. The RED III directive obliges EU countries to develop national support systems for the cascading use of biomass, i.e. forest biomass is used in accordance with its greatest added value in economic and environmental terms. It also limits the use forest biomass in the energy sector to approximately 20\u0026ndash;25%. In turn, for agricultural biomass (AB), it is required to minimize the use of food and feed plants for energy purposes. RED II regulated that AB for energy purposes can be originated from slurry, manure, waste from agri-food industry, agricultural by-products (e.g. straw), and energy crops possible in accordance with. Class V and VI lands can be used for energy crops, which constitute 21 and 12% of arable land in Poland, respectively (Pronobis et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe use of the so-called \u0026ldquo;wet AB\u0026rdquo; (i.e. waste from animal husbandry) for biogas production is regulated by law in Poland. However, there is no comprehensive legal and economic system to encourage the use of AB as a RES resource in the energy and heating industry. Such a system should be established because Poland has large resources of unused AB in the form of agricultural plant waste. There are also vast areas of infertile and unused land where energy crops can be grown. The potential uses of AB are presented in the Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab3\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 3\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgricultural biomass in Poland (Pronobis et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAB \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(currently available)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAB \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(potentially obtainable)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAB\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(in total)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMass \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[Mt/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e28\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eElectricity \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.28\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e33.20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e46.48\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to (Pronobis et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e), AB is useful for generating heat and electricity in the cogeneration process. Assuming a calorific value of 4.15 TWh/Mt (Pronobis et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e), while efficiency of cogeneration process is assumed at 40%, it is possible to generate 13.28 TWh/h (=\u0026thinsp;8 x 4.15 x 0.4) power from the currently available biomass of 8 Mt. If efforts were made to obtain all potential biomass, i.e. 28 Mt, it is possible to obtain 46.48 TWh/y (=\u0026thinsp;28 x 4.15 x 0.4) of power (see Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). In the current version of EPP2040, only forest biomass is planned to be used. Therefore, in the scenarios, energy from AB will be combined with energy from forest biomass.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSince the Polish authorities currently do not plan to revive the biomass sector, two variants will be considered in the scenarios in this paper: the use of biomass in accordance with EPP2040 and the use of additional AB. The values ​​of energy generation from AB are included in the Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"7. Proposed plans for decarbonization for Polish power industry for years 2030 and 2040","content":"\u003cp\u003eAs shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e, the EPPDs for years 2030 and 2040 are both infeasible, as the demand composite curve lies below the source composite curve. In order to restore the feasibility of the EPPD, three scenarios are proposed. In each scenario, the development of various energy sources is analyzed differently than in EPP2040.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs described earlier, the rapid development of nuclear energy, natural gas and RES, (i.e. photovoltaic and wind) are being considered in Poland. Here is an analysis of development plans for individual sources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eNuclear energy\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEPP2040 (Ministry of Climate and Environment \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021a\u003c/span\u003e) envisages the construction of 4 nuclear reactors by year 2040. In EPP2040, it was assumed that the power of each reactor would be 1.1 GW. On February 2023, state treasury company Polish Nuclear Power Plants signed an agreement with Westinghouse Electric Company for the preparation of a nuclear power plant project (Polish Nuclear Power Plants Co. 2023). It was agreed that Poland would use AP1000 reactors, with generation capacity of 1,250 MW each (Office of the MSP Ombudsman \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Hence, its value is more than that assumed in EPP2040. Therefore, the values ​​of power and generated energy have been corrected in this paper and given in the Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e. The main obstacle with this nuclear plant project is its large financial investment. It is expected that EU funds (e.g. National Recovery Plan (NRP)) will be made available for Poland for the development of this energy sources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn order to develop nuclear energy, a consortium was also established among three energy companies, i.e. ZE PAK, Polish Energy Group (PGE) and the Korea Hydro \u0026amp; Nuclear Power (KHNP). The consortium plans to build two commercial reactors with a total capacity of 2.8 GW by 2035 (CIRE \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024b\u003c/span\u003e). The total energy generated by these two nuclear reactors is also given in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt is expected that the large reactors are to be complemented by some small modular rectors (SMR). Currently a prototype reactor BWRX-300 (capacity of 300 MW) is being installed in Darlington, Canada (Rogers \u003cspan citationid=\"CR65\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The first Polish BWRX-300 should be commissioned before year 2030 (Globenergia \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). It has been reported that this type of reactors will be installed in 6 locations in Poland (Rogers \u003cspan citationid=\"CR65\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). These SMRs are expected to supply power to large and energy-intensive industrial plants in Poland. However, as these SMRs are still at the prototype phase without a proper schedule, they were excluded in the analysis.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab4\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 4\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet energy generation from nuclear reactors\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"9\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c9\" colnum=\"9\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2033\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2035\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2037\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2039\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2041\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2043\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2045\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2050\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNumber of government reactors\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet electricity generation by government nuclear reactors [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.49\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.98\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e28.47\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37.95\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e47.44\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e56.93\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e66.42\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e85.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet electricity generation by two commercial nuclear reactors [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21.25\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21.25\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21.25\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21.25\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21.25\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21.25\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21.25\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTotal net energy generation [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.49\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e40.23\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e49.72\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e59.21\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e68.70\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e78.19\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e87.68\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e106.65\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSince RES are given higher priority in power generation, nuclear power is not taken as the primary power source. In situation where large excess of RES is made available, nuclear energy will be kept below its potential generation capacity. For this reason, commercial investments in nuclear power plants may prove to be unprofitable. Therefore, in scenarios 1 and 2, the investment of nuclear power plants is assumed to be unprofitable. In these scenarios, nuclear power plants are built by energy companies but will be managed by the state treasury. On the other hand, Scenario 3 envisages the construction of both commercial and state-owned power plants. Based on the data in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, data for nuclear power for all scenarios are summarized in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab5\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 5\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy generated by nuclear reactors in scenarios 1\u0026ndash;3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"5\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c3\" namest=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 1 and 2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c5\" namest=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePower [GW]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy generation [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37.95\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e59.21\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eOffshore and onshore wind energy\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs discussed in earlier section, wind energy, especially offshore wind energy has good growing potential in Poland. Despite of its high growth potential, offshore wind energy does not possesses high availability (due to reasons discussed earlier). Therefore, wind energy may be taken as the primary source along with nuclear power in the future. The Baltic Sea is highly attractive for investors of offshore wind farm because it is shallow and has good wind conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDue to the high dispositionality and efficiency of offshore wind farms, the construction of wind farms and all related infrastructure will begin soon in the Polish zone of the Baltic Sea. The first power plant is Baltic Power which will be built in years 2024\u0026ndash;2026, with a capacity of 1.2 GW. Another offshore wind farm project is Baltica2, which will be built in 2026\u0026ndash;2027 and has a capacity of 1.5 GW (with 107 wind turbines and 4 marine power stations) (Department of Renewable Energy Sources \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). The next Baltica3 wind farm project with a capacity of 1 GW is expected to complete by year 2030 (Rynek Infrastruktury 2024). Note however that if the remaining planned investments of 2.2 GW wind farms project are not launched (Department of Renewable Energy Sources \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), Poland will only have a total capacity of 3.7 GW (=\u0026thinsp;1.2\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;1.5\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;1 GW) of offshore wind farms by year 2030. This is significantly less than the 5.9 GW generation capacity as planned in EPP2040.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA) (Supernak \u003cspan citationid=\"CR75\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) and the Wind Association report (Polish Wind Energy Association \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), the potential of offshore wind energy of the Baltic Sea (for the Polish part) is estimated as 33 GW. Lower values ​​ can be realistically achieved at 15.3 GW by year 2040 (PSEW et al. 2023), because next wind farms will be completed only after year 2030 (Spiller \u003cspan citationid=\"CR72\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimilarly to offshore wind energy, the potential of onshore wind energy is expected to grow to 36 GW with the relaxation of the 10H law (Supernak \u003cspan citationid=\"CR75\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Note that this is greater than that assumed in EPP2040. However, constructing such big scale wind farms by year 2030 is unlikely to happen due to the time constraint in obtaining such a large investment. Therefore, the scenarios will consider the realistic cases of the development of Polish wind energy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote that the value reported for onshore wind energy category in EPP2040 has now outdated because the current capacity of onshore wind farms is greater than that planned for year 2030 in the EPP2040. Therefore, in Scenarios 1 and 3, the values are based on values ​​suggested by the government, while that in Scenario 2 is based on the analysis of PWEA, where maximum possible development of onshore energy is assumed (Wind Industry Hub, PSEW 2024) (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab6\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 6\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData for scenarios 1, 2 and 3 for wind energy (offshore generation factor 3.96 TWh/GW (Polish Wind Energy Association \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e))\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"6\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c4\" namest=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 1 and 3\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(amendment of the EPP2040 (PSEW et al. 2023))\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c6\" namest=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 2 \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(PSEW Report (Wind Industry Hub, PSEW 2024))\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOnshore\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGW\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e20.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e36.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTWh/y\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e32.58\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e46.54\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e41.89\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e83.77\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOffshore\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGW\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.90\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.90\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTWh/y\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003ePhotovoltaic energy\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFactors such as disposability, efficiency and investment cost will determine the long term growth of photovoltaic energy in Poland. As Poland is located in the middle latitudes. Hence, there are large differences in insolation between winter and summer. A disadvantage of photovoltaic generation is its poor efficiency on cloudy days. It has been estimated that approximately 60% of daylight hours in Poland are cloudy (see \u003cspan refid=\"Sec10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003eAppendix\u003c/span\u003e A2). Even though this technology is unstable in Polish conditions, it has the advantage of being able to build installations of various scales.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs shown in Table \u003cspan refid=\"Tab7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e, both installation capacity and energy generation of photovoltaic sources between years 2020\u0026ndash;2023 have exceeded the planned value for year 2040 outlined in EPP2040. As discussed in earlier section, this accelerating rate was due to rapid development of private and medium size installations that are connected to the grid. If the increase in photovoltaic installations follows the same rate as in years 2020\u0026ndash;2023 (i.e. 4.36 GW/y), the installation capacity would reach 90.9 GW by year 2040; this values is taken​​​​ for scenario 2 (see Table \u003cspan refid=\"Tab7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). Note however that in order to achieve such energy generation, rapid modernization of transmission networks is essential. At present, the Polish energy networks are not able to receive the entire generated power from photovoltaic energy. During the daily peak generation time, photovoltaic farms are cut off from the transmission network, due to excessive energy generation. Data from the Energy Regulatory Office shows that in year 2022, due to lack of technical capabilities, applications for connecting installations with a capacity over 51 GW were rejected (Arthur D. Little Co. 2024). Therefore, conservative assumptions are made for scenarios 1 and 3, where the growth rate of photovoltaic installation in years 2030\u0026ndash;2040 is taken as 50% of the installation rate as in years 2020\u0026ndash;2023 (i.e. 0.5 x 4.36 GW/y\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2.18 GW/y).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab7\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 7\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy generation from photovoltaic sources in scenarios 1\u0026ndash;3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"11\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c9\" colnum=\"9\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c10\" colnum=\"10\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c11\" colnum=\"11\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c3\" namest=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEPP2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"4\" nameend=\"c7\" namest=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eActual data\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c9\" namest=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 1 and 3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c11\" namest=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2021\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2022\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2023\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eInstallation capacity\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[GW]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e45.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e47.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e90.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy generation\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e30.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e31.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eNatural gas, coal and lignite\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs discussed earlier, energy from natural gas power plants can quickly respond to fluctuations in energy supply and demand, apart from having less emissive than coal sources. At present, natural gas has not been used intensively in Poland, mainly due its higher price, which may result in a higher price for Polish power generation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt is expected that in the coming years, Poland will close coal-fired power plants gradually. In 2022, the capacity of coal-fired power plants was reported as 22.4 GW (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). Due to the lack of profitability, it is predicted that 10 GW of coal generation capacity may be removed from the Polish power system by year 2030, and further increase to 15 GW by year 2040 (Energetyka24 \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). In other words, coal generation capacity will reduce to 12.4 GW (=\u0026thinsp;22.4\u0026ndash;10 GW) in 2030 and further to 7.4 GW (=\u0026thinsp;22.4\u0026ndash;15 GW) in year 2040. Note however that the previous government has signed an agreement to only terminate coal mining (for energy generation purposes) in year 2049. Thus, in all scenarios, coal power generation capacity is assumed as 12.4 GW in year 2030 and 7.4 GW in year 2040. These values were used to predict the power generation in these years. As shown in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e, the average production of coal-fired power plants between years 2020\u0026ndash;2022 were calculated as 3.37 TWh/GW (= (71.6\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;84.0\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;79.0)/(24.3\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;23.1\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;22.4) TWh/GW). Based on this average value, the coal generated power may be determined as 41.79 TWh/y (=\u0026thinsp;12.4 x 3.37 TWh/y) for year 2030 and 24.94 TWh/y (=\u0026thinsp;7.4 x 3.37 TWh/y) for year 2040 (shown in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWithin the next decade, with the gradual elimination of coal-fired power plants (while nuclear power plants are yet to be in operational until 2030), more intensive use of natural gas for power generation is expected. Note that the plans for using national gas sources in EPP2040 are inaccurate, as EPP2040 was published before the Ukraine war, and hence it did not take into account that the economic sanctions where Poland would stop importing gas from Russian, even though the latter is available at a lower price. Hence, the targeted value of energy generation from natural gas in EPP2040 is practically unachievable. Based on the data in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e, the average energy generation efficiency from natural gas was estimated as 4.03 TWh/GW, for the period of years 2020\u0026ndash;2023. With the average efficiency calculated and the planned CCGT systems, energy generation was estimated for the years 2030 and 2040. The capacity of 8 GW in year 2030 results from the investments in the growth of the natural gas-based energy industry was described in the earlier section.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLarge lignite-fired power plants will be operated on the basis as supplementing the energy mix. In addition, energy from emission sources will be optimized to meet both energy demand and CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission limits.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab8\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 8\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePredicted maximum values ​​of energy generated from fossil fuels - comparison with EPP2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"9\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c9\" colnum=\"9\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"3\" nameend=\"c5\" namest=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical data\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c7\" namest=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrediction based on \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eaverage generation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c9\" namest=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEPP2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2021\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2022\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003enatural gas\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePower [GW]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.70\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.70\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e32.20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e45.50\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e52.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e67.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ecoal\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePower [GW]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23.10\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e22.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.70\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.69\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e71.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e84.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e79.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e41.79\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.94\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e26.90\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003elignite\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePower [GW]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.50\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.45\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.12\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.45\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.12\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e38.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e46.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e47.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e38.53\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.79\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e41.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eEnergy demand and target emissions CO\u003c/b\u003e \u003csub\u003e \u003cb\u003e2\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/sub\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn all scenarios, energy demand were estimated based on EPP2040, with additional consideration for the growth of electromobility (see Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e and earlier section for this discussion). In May 2024, 66,000 electric cars were registered in Poland (0.25% of all cars in Poland). Therefore, in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e it is assumed that the intensive increase in the number of electric cars will start only after year 2030. For this reason, energy demand in year 2030 is planned in accordance with EPP2040. However, in year 2040, the significant impact of electromobility has already been taken into account. The total power demand in year 2040 is equal 231.65TWh (i.e. 204.20 TWh with additional power demand for electric cars which is 27.45 TWh). Electricity demand for years 2030 and 2040 are given in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab9\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs an EU member state, Poland must comply with EU law. Hence, the rate for Polish emission reduction must be faster than that reported in EPP2040, i.e. which take into account the \u0026ldquo;Fit for 55\u0026rdquo; plan. By year 2030, Polish CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions should decrease by 55% as compared to the emissions in year 1990, i.e. 187.05 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq (Dusiło \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023b\u003c/span\u003e). In other words, the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions should be reduce to 84.17 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq (=\u0026thinsp;187.05 x (100% \u0026ndash; 55%)) by year 2030.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs mentioned earlier, the European Commission announced a new net greenhouse gas emission reduction target for the EU on February 2024. In this new target, CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions should be reduced by 90% by year 2040, as compared to the emission in 1990. This is an intermediate target aiming to achieve climate neutrality by year 2050. Since the 90% reduction target is subjected for negotiation, it is likely that the Polish government will adopt a lower reduction target of 85%, which means that the emissions should be reduced to 28.06 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq by year 2040. Both CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions targets for years 2030 and 2040 are summarized in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab9\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab9\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 9\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy demand and maximum emissions of the Polish energy sector until 2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eElectricity demand \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e181.10\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e231.65\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMaximum emissions\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/year]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e84.17\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e28.06\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab10\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 10\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary of data for scenarios 1, 2 and 3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"8\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy source\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmission factor\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/TWh]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"6\" nameend=\"c8\" namest=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnnual energy generation [TWh/y]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c4\" namest=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c6\" namest=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c8\" namest=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear 2040\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiomass and biogas\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.1649\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.50 \u0026ndash; 20.78\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.50\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.50\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNuclear power\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0716\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37.95\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37.95\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e59.21\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHydropower\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0257\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWind energy, onshore\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0430\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e32.58\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e46.54\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e41.89\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e83.77\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e32.58\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e46.54\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWind energy, offshore\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0542\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(Wang and Sun \u003cspan citationid=\"CR81\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.60\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePhotovoltaics\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.0440\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.64\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e30.06\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e31.28\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.13\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.64\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e30.06\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNatural gas\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.4116\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e32.20\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e45.50\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e32.20\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e45.50\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e32.20\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e45.50\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCoal\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1172\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e41.79\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e24.94\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e41.79\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e24.94\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e41.79\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e24.94\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLignite\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2519\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e38.53\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e5.79\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e38.53\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e5.79\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e38.53\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e5.79\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs coal and lignite are mined in Poland, for economic and social reasons, the extraction of these energy sources have to be conserved. Hence, energy generation from these sources are assumed to follow the prediction values in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e. Besides, maintaining certain portion of fossil fuel will ensure energy generation to come with affordable price. Note however that for long term solution (i.e. year 2040), natural gas will have increased generation, while generation from coal and lignite will be lower than those reported in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e, due to stringent CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission limits.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"8. Results and interpretation","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn scenarios 1, 2 and 3, the possibilities of achieving emission goals will be considered for different rates of development of RES, nuclear power and the reduction of high CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-intensive energy sources (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eScenario 1\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 1 assumed a moderate pace of development of wind energy (both onshore and offshore). The development of photovoltaic energy is assumed to be limited due to the difficulties of feeding the generated power into the outdated power grid. Moreover, scenario 1 assumes the implementation of government nuclear project, i.e. the commissioning of 4 nuclear reactors between 2030 and 2040 (see Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eStrategies for year 2030\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTwo cases were considered, differing in energy generation from gas and lignite sources, with their resulting EPPDs shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 1\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this case, an attempt was made to meet the energy demand, while taking into account the predicted generation of all fuel sources discussed earlier. If energy generation from gas (32.20 TWh/y) and coal (41.79 TWh/y) will reach the maximum values as ​​​​in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e, power generation from lignite should be reduced to 25.69 TWh/y, in order to meet the demand target. As shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e, despite of minimizing the use of the most emissive fossil fuel (lignite), the emission limit of year 2030 will be exceeded by 12.59 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/y (=\u0026thinsp;96.76\u0026ndash;84.17 CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/y).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 2\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn order to achieve the emission target at 84.17 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/y, excessive use of natural gas was allowed. As a result, the share of energy production for gas power plants increased by 46.5% to 47.18 TWh/y. This allows for the generation of 10.71 TWh/y of energy from lignite (decrease of 41.7% compared to case \u003cspan refid=\"FPar1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). This case may be made possible provided that natural gas supplies to Poland are increased. This is possible when floating regasification unit ships (FSRU) are launched and natural gas imports through interconnects with neighboring countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eStrategies for year 2040\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 1\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimilarly as in case \u003cspan refid=\"FPar2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e for year 2030, the solution to the problem of meeting the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission limit seems to be to increase the share of natural gas. Following this solution method, increase the share of natural gas leads to a mix in which neither coal nor lignite sources are used. Generating as much as 47.18 TWh/y of energy from natural gas exceeds the emission limit by 1.98 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/year.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 2\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this case, existing agricultural biomass (AB) resources were used to achieve the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission limit. Since in this scenario this energy source was not developed until year 2030, it is possible to use the existing AB (total amount of 8 Mt) to generate an additional power of 13.28 TWh by year 2040. The use of AB made it possible to achieve the emission target for year 2040, and where energy generation from natural gas is reduced to 32.08 TWh. It is also possible to generate 1.82 TWh from coal, which keeps Polish miners employed. However, lignite power plants must be shut down in this case.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary of scenario 1: To achieve the CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission limit for year 2030, efficient development of wind and photovoltaic energy is required. The emission limit for 2040 requires major changes. Despite the launch of four nuclear reactors, while large amounts of natural gas is used and operation of coal and lignite power plants are reduced/removed, it is not possible to achieve 85% reduction of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission by year 2040. Additionally, it violates the agreement with Polish coal miners (where coal mining should be kept until 2049). The emission target for 2040 is achievable using at least existing 8 Mt of AB. Hence, a program for AB use should be developed or commercial program for nuclear power plant construction should be launched. These are further analyzed in scenarios 2 and 3.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eScenario 2.\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario 2 assumes faster development of onshore wind energy (than the current plan) and appropriate modernization of the power grid, thus allowing all generated photovoltaic power to the grid. As it is not possible to launch nuclear reactors before year 2030, development of onshore wind energy and photovoltaics are assumed to go faster (65.2% and 192.1%, respectively) than in scenario 1 (see Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e). Similarly to scenario 1, four nuclear reactors will be commissioned by year 2040. The following cases were analyzed.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eStrategies for year 2030\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 1\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith large power from RES, achieving emission target while maintaining the hard coal mining industry (until year 2040) is possible in this case. On the other hand, power generation from natural gas may be reduced to 11.31 TWh/y (versus 32.20 TWh/y in Scenario 1) and allows the generation of as much as 21.63 TWh/y of energy from lignite and 41.79 TWh/y of energy from coal (see EPPD in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). The energy mix in this case has the advantage of avoiding large investments for increased natural gas imports, apart from depending on imported fuels.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 2\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith large energy generation from nuclear sources and RES, it is possible to reduce emissions below the emission target for year 2030. This may be economically beneficial in case of a large increase in the purchase price of emission allowances. This energy mix makes it possible to completely shut down lignite power plants. The generation of 32.94 TWh/y of energy from natural gas is then required, which is possible with 8 GW of generating capacity (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e line Source CC 2030 case \u003cspan refid=\"FPar2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). It is also necessary to increase the import of this fuel, e.g. through the floating marine terminal, or through gas pipelines with Lithuania and Slovakia. With such an energy mix, emissions would be lower than the target by 18.18 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/y (=\u0026thinsp;84.17\u0026ndash;65.99 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/y). However, this case is difficult for implementation due to social reasons. Only the largest power plant and lignite mine in Bełchat\u0026oacute;w employs 8,000 people. It is not possible to retrain all workers or resettle them to other cities before year 2030. One among the sensible solution is to build a nuclear power plant in this place to employ some of the current power plant's employees. Note that this solution is currently in consideration for future implementation, but without an implementation date.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eStrategies for year 2040\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 1\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy generation by RES and 4 units of the nuclear power plant will lead to 251.75 TWh/y of power, exceeding the expected power demand in year 2040, which is 231.65 TWh/y (see EPPD in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e). One could conclude that power generation from coal, lignite and natural gas are unnecessary in this case. However, this conclusion may not hold true, due to the fact that much fluctuation may be experienced when there are greater share of energy generated from renewable sources. While excess energy can be exported to neighboring countries, an energy mix with a predominance of RES may cause periodic interruptions in energy supply. This issue has been discussed in detail earlier (see Section \u0026lsquo;Dominant share of RES in the energy mix\u0026rsquo;).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this case, 20.1 TWh of excess energy was generated. It is possible to sell it to neighboring countries. Such situation is only possible when Poland generates excess energy while its neighboring countries have energy shortages. Therefore, this is not a good strategy for managing excess energy. Additionally, the amount of energy from available sources (47.25 TWh/y) in relation to the demand for 2040 is 20.4%. This value is on the edge of the security of power supply continuity, which means very low stability of the national power supply system. For this reason, a better solution is to store the excess energy, e.g. in the form of hydrogen. As discussed in earlier section ('Dominant share of RES in the energy mix'), the P2P cycle has an efficiency of 48%. It can be calculated that 38.65 TWh (=(251.75-231.65)/(1-0.48) TWh) can be allocated to hydrogen production. By burning this hydrogen, 18.55 TWh (=\u0026thinsp;38.65*0.48 TWh) of electricity will be generated from a fully disposable hydrogen source. Summing up the entire P2P cycle, the energy demand of 231.65 TWh (=\u0026thinsp;251.75\u0026ndash;38.65\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;18.55 TWh) is met. In this way, the percentage of energy from disposable sources increased to 28.41% (=(47.25\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;18.55)/231.65), which largely strengthens the security of continuity of energy supplies in Poland.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn summary, the rapid development of wind and solar energy provide greater flexibility in deciding on use of fossil fuel sources until year 2030. This makes it possible to achieve lower emissions when the price of emission allowances increases significantly. Further rapid development of RES until 2040 creates good conditions for the use of new energy storage technologies. Such an energy mix avoid the construction of two additional commercial nuclear reactors (see scenario 3) and the investments may be diverted to offshore wind energy and energy storage technologies; the latter will improve the stability of the energy system.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eScenario 3.\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Scenario 3, the possibility of maintaining Polish coal mining after 2040 will be analyzed. To reduce the share of emission sources, moderate development of photovoltaics and onshore wind power will be maintained. Additionally, four reactors built by a state-owned company and two additional commercial nuclear reactors will be commissioned, before year 2040. As shown in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e, the energy development plan for year 2030 is similar to that in Scenario 1, and therefore it will not be discussed. The energy mix for scenario 3 is presented in the final two columns of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eStrategies for year 2040\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor Case \u003cspan refid=\"FPar1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e, with the assumed generation of 24.94 TWh/y from coal and 5.79 TWh/y from lignite, the total power generation will exceed its predicted demand by 4.79 TWh/y. If one were to remove natural gas from the energy mix, the EPPD shows that the emission limit will be exceeded by 19.18 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/y (see Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig9\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e). Therefore, it is necessary to use less emission-intensive natural gas instead of solid fuels.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCase 2\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn order to achieve the emission limit for year 2040, energy generation from emission-intensive sources should be significantly reduced, e.g. to 4.67 TWh/y from coal and 2.33 TWh/y from lignite; these correspond to reduction of 81.3% and 59.8%, respectively. On the other hand, energy generation from natural gas must increase to 18.94 TWh/y. Doing this will lead to the emission limit not being violated, as shown in the EPPD in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig9\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e. Calculations indicate that all nuclear reactors will generate energy at full capacity, which justifies the advisability of incurring high investment costs. An additional advantage of building two commercial reactors is the 40.77% (=\u0026thinsp;94.45/231.65) share of disposability sources, ensuring high stability of the energy system.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn summary, if six nuclear reactors (four government and two commercial) will be commissioned, it is necessary to limit energy generation from coal and lignite significant below the predicted values of EPP2040. It is worth noting that in this scenario, energy from all nuclear reactors will be used. Therefore, at such a pace of RES development, the construction of two commercial reactors is economically justified.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"9. Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn this work, CEPA has been applied to analyze decarbonization options for Poland from years 2022 to 2030 and 2040. The developments of various low-emission power generation technologies were analyzed. It has been shown that the potential for RES development is much greater than that assumed in the current government program for Poland's energy transformation until 2040 (EPP2040). Unlike EPP2040, the scenario analysis took into account the more stringent EU emission targets, i.e. reducing CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions by 55% by year 2030, and the European Commission's proposal to reduce emissions by 90% by year 2040 (as compared to the level in year 1990). The scenarios analyzed also take into account of Poland's energy security and continuity of energy supplies. It was also assumed that energy demand would increase faster than that assumed in EPP2040, due to the intensive development of electromobility. The analysis of multiple scenarios identifies priority strategies for potential implementation by the Polish government. The scenarios considered the effects resulting from the different speed of development of various energy sources, such as onshore and offshore wind energy, photovoltaics, nuclear energy and natural gas power plants as a transitional source. The possibility of maintaining Polish coal mining until year 2049 was also analyzed. In the scenarios of intensive development of RES, the need to modernize the energy transmission network and develop energy storage technologies was indicated. It has been shown that hydrogen-based P2P technology can improve the stability of the energy system. The article also indicates the possibilities, potential and positive effects resulting from the development of energy sources based on agricultural biomass. The use of this source of low-emission energy is currently neglected. Due to the very high emission intensity of the Polish energy industry, it has been shown that it is necessary to accelerate the energy transformation to achieve the assumed emission goals. Current projects to develop various energy sources show the lack of a coherent plan. In turn, the scenario analysis shows the need for coordinated development, i.e. treating the energy industry as an integrated system rather than individual sub-systems.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMoving forward, in order to decarbonize the power generation sector to reach the net zero target in year 2050, it is believe that similar strategies on growing RES and nuclear are unavoidable. Furthermore, it is expected that newer strategy for CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e removal is necessary, especially for sectors that are inherently difficult with traditional decarbonization options. This calls for the development of \u003cem\u003enegative emission technologies\u003c/em\u003e such as the installation of carbon caption on biomass power plants, etc.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eAll authors contributed to the study conception and writing. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Grzegorz Poplewski and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAcknowledgement\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eFinanced by the Minister of Science and Higher Education Republic of Poland within the program \"Regional Excellence Initiative\"\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAgencja Rynku Energii S.A. (2022) Badania Statystyczne. In: Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. https://www.are.waw.pl. Accessed 24 Jul 2024\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eArthur D. Little Co. 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However, the pathway to reach this carbon neutrality target is still uncertain, given Poland\u0026rsquo;s current dependence on fossil fuels. Different decarbonization measures need to be examined and combined to achieve substantial reductions. In this work, \u003cem\u003ecarbon emission pinch analysis\u003c/em\u003e (CEPA) is used to plan and visualize deep emissions cuts for such a transition. Multiple scenarios were proposed in order for Polish energy generation sector to reach its CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emission targets in years 2030 and 2040. For instance, in Scenario 1, relative to 2022, coal was reduced by 36 times, and lignite was eliminated completely; while natural gas, onshore wind, agricultural biomass, photovoltaics have huge increase (238%, 154%, 235%, 301%, respectively), apart from having additional nuclear and offshore wind power (38 TWh and 61 TWh, respectively). Doing this achieves the 2040 emission target of 28.06 Mt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/year. These results provide realistic benchmarks for the development and implementation of policies to realize Poland\u0026rsquo;s decarbonization ambitions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis for Transformation of Polish Power Generation Sector","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-27 11:15:20","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4817694/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-09-12T05:43:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-09-11T14:33:59+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-09-06T17:30:03+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-08-26T00:08:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"285437883007115523108755960004401221280","date":"2024-08-23T09:57:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"24180369544999179444351706590289722188","date":"2024-08-21T13:40:48+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"208419447037578928079875212389981784725","date":"2024-08-21T05:07:54+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"83958979335255981107777653695872049096","date":"2024-08-06T02:11:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-07-31T05:51:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-07-30T16:03:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-07-29T06:50:15+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy","date":"2024-07-28T17:10:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"clean-technologies-and-environmental-policy","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ctep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy](https://www.springer.com/journal/10098)","snPcode":"10098","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10098/3","title":"Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"853ece24-61f0-4fbf-8c75-b7a9df24d8cb","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 27th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-02-03T15:58:57+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4817694","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-025-03127-7","journal":{"identity":"clean-technologies-and-environmental-policy","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy"},"publishedOn":"2025-01-29 15:56:56","publishedOnDateReadable":"January 29th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-27 11:15:20","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s10098-025-03127-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-025-03127-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4817694","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4817694","identity":"rs-4817694","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}