Resolving the Paradox of Educational Development and Suicide Mortality Across Global Contexts

Resolving the Paradox of Educational Development and Suicide Mortality Across Global Contexts | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Resolving the Paradox of Educational Development and Suicide Mortality Across Global Contexts Quoc Lap Nguyen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9673778/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates how multiple dimensions of education — cognitive quality, quantity, deprivation, and youth marginalisation — relate to national suicide mortality across a panel of 192 countries from 2000 to 2021. A central empirical paradox motivates the analysis: cross-sectional data show that countries with higher educational attainment tend to have elevated suicide rates, yet within-country panel evidence reveals a significant protective effect of education on suicide. Resolving this paradox through two-way fixed effects estimation, variance decomposition, and error correction modelling, this paper demonstrates that the cross-sectional pattern reflects cultural and historical confounders rather than a causal relationship. Three principal findings emerge. First, improvements in the education composite index within countries are associated with lower suicide rates, a relationship confirmed by a significant error correction mechanism. Second, youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET) rates exhibit a robust inverted-U association with suicide mortality, with a turning point near 39 per cent, and this nonlinear pattern differs markedly across income groups. Third, Chow tests confirm a significant structural break between high-income and lower-middle-income countries, with mean years of schooling positively predicting suicide in upper-middle-income settings, consistent with an educational aspiration–opportunity mismatch mechanism. These findings carry direct implications for education policy and mental health investment in low and middle-income countries. education quality youth NEET suicide mortality educational development mental health Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 15 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 13 May, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 12 May, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 12 May, 2026 First submitted to journal 10 May, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9673778","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":640873115,"identity":"42b74fbe-2ab5-4192-b9b2-17997e350a0f","order_by":0,"name":"Quoc Lap Nguyen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPjD5g42ZH0QnFBChhQ1EMPbwsUs2gLQYEKuFgU2O3+AAiEGUFvazxx684TGTNj6/OvHDAwMGeX6xAwS08OSlG86xSDM2u/F2swTQYYYzZycQcliOmTQPz7FksxtnN4C0JBjcJqSF/w1QC9v/+s0zzm7+QZwWCZAtbGzMBvy924i0ReJdmuTcHjZmiRu82ywSDCQI+4WfP/eYxBtQVPaf3XzzR4WNPL80AS0MDDxgxMAgAVYpQUg5shb+A8SoHgWjYBSMgpEIAN3MO8dCfoJKAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Quoc","middleName":"Lap","lastName":"Nguyen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-11 02:53:25","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9673778/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9673778/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109405327,"identity":"68ca2ea8-4eaa-483e-9354-fd91a1313f03","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-17 13:16:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1537005,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SuicideMortalityy.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9673778/v1_covered_6631138d-024f-4eaa-b5a0-37226566c390.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Resolving the Paradox of Educational Development and Suicide Mortality Across Global Contexts","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":false,"email":"","identity":"sn-social-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"SN Social Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"VoR Journals","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"education quality, youth NEET, suicide mortality, educational development, mental health","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9673778/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9673778/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study investigates how multiple dimensions of education — cognitive quality, quantity, deprivation, and youth marginalisation — relate to national suicide mortality across a panel of 192 countries from 2000 to 2021. 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