An Explicit Formulation for the Logic-Tree Representation of Epistemic Uncertainties in PSHA

An Explicit Formulation for the Logic-Tree Representation of Epistemic Uncertainties in PSHA | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article An Explicit Formulation for the Logic-Tree Representation of Epistemic Uncertainties in PSHA Myunghyun Noh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4626750/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In the recent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the logic tree approach has been commonly adopted to represent epistemic uncertainties the PSHA inputs. While several studies have explored fundamental principles behind constructing logic trees, none have explicitly detailed the calculation of the weight and hazard at each end branch, particularly when multiple sources are combined to contribute to the hazard at a site. This study addresses this gap by introducing a clear and explicit expression for calculating branch weights and the corresponding seismic hazard at a given site. PSHA logic tree end branch weight hazard Figures Figure 1 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4626750","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":322279816,"identity":"c3ca7cab-bc0a-4d7f-abe6-64b6f02852b3","order_by":0,"name":"Myunghyun Noh","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCQYGZoaKBB4oN4FYLWdI1sLYBldJhBbd2b0HHxfOS5Mx5z/A9uEDQ1o+QS1md84lG8/clsNjOSOBeeYMhhzLBoJabuSYSfNuq+AxuMHAzMzDUGFA2BawljlALecPMDP/IV5LQw6PwYEEZmYGhhyitBgb8xxLAzossZmxxyCNKC2Gj3lqku0Nzh8+zPCjIpmwFiTA2MDAQJKGUTAKRsEoGAU4AQCO/TPS2a+wvwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Myunghyun","middleName":"","lastName":"Noh","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-24 00:53:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4626750/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4626750/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":60526040,"identity":"a288b0e5-4dc0-44cd-aeb9-e98306c1f65f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-17 18:23:25","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":57682,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSimple example of PSHA inputs. The inputs are comprised of two maps, each of which has two seismic sources. Different GMM sets are selected for the two maps. For simplicity, only two or three source branches are assumed for each source. Note that the number of source branches encompasses combinations of all source attributes such as faulting styles, maximum earthquake magnitudes, Richter-\u003cem\u003eb\u003c/em\u003e, etc., together with their alternatives.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4626750/v1/43f30e7230933c1103c66082.png"},{"id":72251065,"identity":"1998e423-d456-41ce-bd04-f2493eb16492","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-24 08:46:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":317484,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LogicTreeFormulation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4626750/v1_covered_6db68d45-a42f-48d1-abcf-441fad03a90f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"An Explicit Formulation for the Logic-Tree Representation of Epistemic Uncertainties in PSHA","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"PSHA, logic tree, end branch, weight, hazard","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4626750/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4626750/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn the recent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the logic tree approach has been commonly adopted to represent epistemic uncertainties the PSHA inputs. While several studies have explored fundamental principles behind constructing logic trees, none have explicitly detailed the calculation of the weight and hazard at each end branch, particularly when multiple sources are combined to contribute to the hazard at a site. 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