Perceived certainty of punishment as a boundary condition between fear of punishment and compliance with coronavirus disease prevention policies

Abstract This study investigates the potential impact of perceived certainty of punishment on the relationship between fear of punishment and adherence to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) prevention policies. By integrating regulatory focus theory with deterrence literature, we argued that individuals have varying perceptions regarding the certainty of punishment. Individuals who believe that the consequences of non-compliance with COVID-19 prevention policies are definite are more inclined to adhere to them compared to those who do not perceive the consequences as certain. To test this hypothesis, we invited 354 students from five universities in northwestern Nigeria to participate in our study. The findings of our study confirmed that individuals were more likely to adhere to COVID-19 prevention measures implemented by universities in Nigeria when they were motivated by the fear of potential consequences. Additionally, our research revealed that the level of certainty regarding punishment plays a crucial role in influencing individuals’ compliance with COVID-19 prevention policies, particularly in relation to their fear of potential consequences. Lastly, we explored the practical implications and potential avenues for future research.