Prediction of Casing Failure Based on Spontaneous Potential Baseline Shift Magnitude

Prediction of Casing Failure Based on Spontaneous Potential Baseline Shift Magnitude | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Prediction of Casing Failure Based on Spontaneous Potential Baseline Shift Magnitude Quan-hou Li, junjie huang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8514809/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Casing deformation in water-flooded shale reservoirs threatens well integrity and long-term production. This study presents a quantitative method that uses the spontaneous potential (SP) baseline offset magnitude (ΔSP) to assess water invasion and predict casing failure. Multi-year logging data from the Nen-2 Formation in the Lamadian Oilfield were examined to establish an exponential relationship between ΔSP and the time since completion. The results show that ΔSP increases progressively as formation water gradually enters the shale interval. The ΔSP magnitude is mainly controlled by the degree of water flooding and the resistivity contrast between mud filtrate and formation water. Statistical analysis indicates that when the average ΔSP exceeds 4.4 mV, the probability of large-scale casing deformation increases sharply. Based on these findings, a ΔSP-time prediction model was developed to provide a practical tool for evaluating formation invasion and identifying early-warning thresholds for casing failure in low-permeability shale reservoirs. The proposed approach offers a simple and effective geophysical indicator for monitoring wellbore stability in mature water-flooded fields. It can also support reservoir management by helping operators anticipate structural failures and implement preventive measures. Overall, this study demonstrates that ΔSP serves as a sensitive and reliable parameter for tracking water-flooding processes and diagnosing casing integrity risks in shale formations. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences Spontaneous potential(SP) Baseline offset magnitude(ΔSP) Water flooding Casing deformation Shale reservoir Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files 2025117.zip file.zip Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8514809","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":581345785,"identity":"c8b9dbc3-d556-4f75-a8df-9aefd510c850","order_by":0,"name":"Quan-hou Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"northeast petroleum university","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Quan-hou","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":581345786,"identity":"6ce844ff-ae9c-4e29-84a8-4f50f0fa8ec8","order_by":1,"name":"junjie huang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxmb+D4f/VNjI8bM3EKmFuZ3B8ADPmTRjyZ4DRGph72cwPsDbcjhxw40EIrXwNjMkHJBsYDY2uPl44w2GGptoglokmxkOHDDcwSYneTut2ILhWFpuAyEths2MDQcSz/AY893OMZNgbDhMWIv9YWaGAwfbJBIbbp4hUgtjMxvDwcY2g8QJN3iI1sLDcJjhTAIwkIF+SSDGL4z9Z5g/M1T8B0bl4Y03PtTYENaCDAwkEkhRDtFCqo5RMApGwSgYGQAAVQJDU0owXqIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"northeast petroleum university","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"junjie","middleName":"","lastName":"huang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-04 17:53:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8514809/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8514809/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103436957,"identity":"99fe5952-4332-4afb-a655-5da13a27809e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-25 16:40:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2678148,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PredictionofCasingFailureBasedonSpontaneous.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8514809/v1_covered_ee487e86-5415-43a8-91da-ce4d93380468.pdf"},{"id":101397901,"identity":"9552229b-9e2f-4c48-a630-d6b166d83c46","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-29 09:38:00","extension":"zip","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":16986697,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"2025117.zip","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8514809/v1/a63b6c1635f8c59eade59925.zip"},{"id":101343495,"identity":"828d67ae-fb2f-4723-ba85-c838a56034ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-28 16:43:02","extension":"zip","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":569850898,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"file.zip","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8514809/v1/70ed4c7da8f7cf34ce026dfa.zip"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Prediction of Casing Failure Based on Spontaneous Potential Baseline Shift Magnitude","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Spontaneous potential(SP), Baseline offset magnitude(ΔSP), Water flooding, Casing deformation, Shale reservoir","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8514809/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8514809/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Casing deformation in water-flooded shale reservoirs threatens well integrity and long-term production. This study presents a quantitative method that uses the spontaneous potential (SP) baseline offset magnitude (ΔSP) to assess water invasion and predict casing failure. Multi-year logging data from the Nen-2 Formation in the Lamadian Oilfield were examined to establish an exponential relationship between ΔSP and the time since completion. The results show that ΔSP increases progressively as formation water gradually enters the shale interval. The ΔSP magnitude is mainly controlled by the degree of water flooding and the resistivity contrast between mud filtrate and formation water. Statistical analysis indicates that when the average ΔSP exceeds 4.4 mV, the probability of large-scale casing deformation increases sharply. Based on these findings, a ΔSP-time prediction model was developed to provide a practical tool for evaluating formation invasion and identifying early-warning thresholds for casing failure in low-permeability shale reservoirs. The proposed approach offers a simple and effective geophysical indicator for monitoring wellbore stability in mature water-flooded fields. It can also support reservoir management by helping operators anticipate structural failures and implement preventive measures. Overall, this study demonstrates that ΔSP serves as a sensitive and reliable parameter for tracking water-flooding processes and diagnosing casing integrity risks in shale formations.","manuscriptTitle":"Prediction of Casing Failure Based on Spontaneous Potential Baseline Shift Magnitude","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-28 16:42:40","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8514809/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b0a7bd92-aded-4d5e-b42e-dcaf676baf21","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 28th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":61848102,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology"},{"id":61848103,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":61848104,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"},{"id":61848105,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":61848106,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-25T16:40:43+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-28 16:42:40","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8514809","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8514809","identity":"rs-8514809","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}