Impacts of Pollinator Declines on Agri-Food Systems in Europe and Beyond

Abstract While biodiversity conservation policies often encounter resistance, the potential repercussions of diminished pollination services on the global agri-food system remain underexplored. We leverage a global agricultural sector model with a focused analysis of the European sector to evaluate the possible effects of a worldwide decline in both managed and wild pollinators by 2030. Our findings suggest that such a decline could reduce global average crop yields by 9%, leading to an 6% expansion in cropland area to mitigate the reduction in global crop production to 3%. Global economic welfare would decrease by 302 billion EUR (0.4% of global GDP). The European Union, particularly its Eastern members resistant to biodiversity-friendly policies, would incur disproportionately large economic impacts. Although market responses, including expanded land use and shifts in trade patterns, could alleviate some effects, they risk exacerbating food insecurity and hampering biodiversity conservation efforts, especially in the Global South.