Antibody Tests: They Are More Important Than We Thought

Antibody testing is a non-pharmaceutical intervention – not recognized so far in the literature – to prevent COVID-19 contagion. I show this in a simple economic model of an epidemic in which agents choose social activity under health state uncertainty. In the model, susceptible and asymptomatic agents are more socially active when they think they might be immune. And this increased activity escalates infections, deaths, and welfare losses. Antibody testing, however, prevents this escalation by revealing that those agents are not immune. Through this mechanism, I find that antibody testing prevents about 12% of COVID-19 related deaths within 12 months.