Enhanced Covariance Propagation for Asymmetric High-Order Uncertainty in Reentry Debris Risk Prediction

Enhanced Covariance Propagation for Asymmetric High-Order Uncertainty in Reentry Debris Risk Prediction | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Enhanced Covariance Propagation for Asymmetric High-Order Uncertainty in Reentry Debris Risk Prediction WanTong Chen, ZeRui Cao, ShiYu Ren This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6731968/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Sep, 2025 Read the published version in Nonlinear Dynamics → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract his study presents a comprehensive experimental analysis of suborbital debris propagation under various uncertainty scenarios, focusing on the effects of kinematic perturbations and area-to-mass ratio diversity. The equations of motion, incorporating gravitational and aerodynamic forces, are analytically simplified to characterize the asymmetric expansion of debris clouds. A multi-dimensional sampling strategy based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model is adopted, and propagation experiments are conducted to quantify spatial dispersion and risk envelopes across both horizontal and vertical-longitudinal projections. The results reveal that initial velocity increments and variations in area-to-mass ratio significantly amplify the anisotropic spread of debris, leading to pronounced asymmetry in the hazard zone boundaries. Comparative evaluation demonstrates that the proposed estimation approach outperforms traditional filters in both accuracy and robustness. By integrating simulated debris distributions with aviation route data, the study further identifies high-risk areas and assesses the potential impact on air traffic operations. These findings provide scientific guidance for hazard zone prediction and airspace management in commercial aerospace applications. suborbital debris uncertainty propagation hazard zone prediction aviation safety uncertainty quantification Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Sep, 2025 Read the published version in Nonlinear Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 05 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 02 Jun, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 27 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 23 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6731968","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":466776738,"identity":"f730fdc8-3bdd-4f1a-9bbd-0076836d9f4c","order_by":0,"name":"WanTong Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Civil Aviation University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"WanTong","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":466776739,"identity":"00081b58-a8e1-49c6-9ec3-772c2d7dd46e","order_by":1,"name":"ZeRui Cao","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+0lEQVRIie3QsUvDQBTH8Xc8uCyv3nqhEv+FBwFxav+VK1k7OEkn0eW6GFzrnyGCOF7Jejh3rEunDumkGRTTYCdNopvDfYcbwn24HwEIhf5hCnG5NjNNEtF9fTPdJJ7bjEt/lhxF8nC1h7D3p/GdnaWJIv4dgZXhIUk9sUi7srIjUNGUoXpqF2JhTEq0J4OHOLcZxDdbFrlvJ6iNy0g35BEG1gGvpozCtpN60lVB3AzbiPeajPsIUSGuF0anEuv/3Lyie4iOLELpdCJRpsPj53qk35wv8w4yLtTr2+Tjkk5ui5fd9mKUqHl2v646yPel+8P9AYRCoVDohz4BDvhJ7tVCLJ8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Civil Aviation University of China","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"ZeRui","middleName":"","lastName":"Cao","suffix":""},{"id":466776740,"identity":"4507fef6-9953-4b82-b406-4562d336e7ff","order_by":2,"name":"ShiYu Ren","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Civil Aviation University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"ShiYu","middleName":"","lastName":"Ren","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-23 10:23:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6731968/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6731968/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-025-11829-2","type":"published","date":"2025-09-22T15:57:35+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92430887,"identity":"4f94ee77-ffd4-4e09-b830-858542e31fac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 16:07:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":21207639,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EnhancedCovariancePropagationforAsymmetricHighOrderUncertaintyinReentryDebrisRiskPrediction.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6731968/v1_covered_eb619c38-b960-44b9-8cb9-4172b5819cb9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Enhanced Covariance Propagation for Asymmetric High-Order Uncertainty in Reentry Debris Risk Prediction","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nonlinear-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nody","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nonlinear Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/11071)","snPcode":"11071","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11071/3","title":"Nonlinear Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"suborbital debris, uncertainty propagation, hazard zone prediction, aviation safety, uncertainty quantification","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6731968/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6731968/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003ehis study presents a comprehensive experimental analysis of suborbital debris propagation under various uncertainty scenarios, focusing on the effects of kinematic perturbations and area-to-mass ratio diversity. The equations of motion, incorporating gravitational and aerodynamic forces, are analytically simplified to characterize the asymmetric expansion of debris clouds. A multi-dimensional sampling strategy based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model is adopted, and propagation experiments are conducted to quantify spatial dispersion and risk envelopes across both horizontal and vertical-longitudinal projections. The results reveal that initial velocity increments and variations in area-to-mass ratio significantly amplify the anisotropic spread of debris, leading to pronounced asymmetry in the hazard zone boundaries. Comparative evaluation demonstrates that the proposed estimation approach outperforms traditional filters in both accuracy and robustness. By integrating simulated debris distributions with aviation route data, the study further identifies high-risk areas and assesses the potential impact on air traffic operations. These findings provide scientific guidance for hazard zone prediction and airspace management in commercial aerospace applications.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Enhanced Covariance Propagation for Asymmetric High-Order Uncertainty in Reentry Debris Risk Prediction","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-17 08:36:53","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6731968/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-06-05T05:13:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-06-02T10:12:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-05-27T06:53:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Nonlinear Dynamics","date":"2025-05-23T10:18:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nonlinear-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nody","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nonlinear Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/11071)","snPcode":"11071","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11071/3","title":"Nonlinear Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"116c874b-167c-4f5e-8474-054fe5eb5e30","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 17th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-29T16:06:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6731968","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-025-11829-2","journal":{"identity":"nonlinear-dynamics","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Nonlinear Dynamics"},"publishedOn":"2025-09-22 15:57:35","publishedOnDateReadable":"September 22nd, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-17 08:36:53","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11071-025-11829-2","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-025-11829-2","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6731968","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6731968","identity":"rs-6731968","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}