Does affective polarization make citizens more extreme? Experimental evidence from Chile

Does affective polarization make citizens more extreme? Experimental evidence from Chile | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Does affective polarization make citizens more extreme? Experimental evidence from Chile Carmen Le Foulon, Loreto Cox, Pedro Cubillos This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8704872/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We study how affective polarization shapes ideological stances in a context of weak partisan identities: the 2022 Constitutional Plebiscite in Chile. We show that the plebiscite produced opinion-based identities with high levels of affective polarization and motivated reasoning, exemplified by a strong cue-taking effect. Using a survey experiment with an open-ended primer, we experimentally manipulate affective polarization. We do not find that heightened affective polarization directly influences ideological extremeness. However, a second experiment provides mixed evidence of an indirect impact on ideology via strengthening the effects of cues. Thus, while affective polarization does not polarize ideology in the abstract, it may shape ideological positions due to affective responses to the speaker’s political camp. Our results suggest that even opinion-based groups based on new divides may shape how citizens interpret policy positions, raising concerns about the possibilities of democratic deliberation and agreement. affective polarization ideological polarization extremeness Latin America plebiscites Full Text Additional Declarations Competing interest reported. Loreto Cox is on the Editorial Board of this journal, Political Behavior. Supplementary Files Appendixjan2026.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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