Predictive Modeling of Climate-Driven Bird Biodiversity Shifts in Chitwan

Predictive Modeling of Climate-Driven Bird Biodiversity Shifts in Chitwan | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 23 September 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Predictive Modeling of Climate-Driven Bird Biodiversity Shifts in Chitwan Authors : Kritika Acharya 0009-0008-6168-8060 [email protected] and Madhu Ojha Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175858755.55666182/v1 202 views 99 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Climate change is increasingly reshaping bird communities across Nepal, with rising temperatures and shifting habitats altering species distributions. This study focuses on Chitwan District, a region that encompasses diverse ecological zones ranging from lowland wetlands to mid-hill forests, providing a critical setting for understanding these dynamics. We combined long-term climate records, detailed land-use data, and nearly 96,000 bird occurrence records to model current and future distribution patterns. Three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest, XGBoost, and MaxEnt—were integrated into an ensemble framework to improve predictive performance. The ensemble model achieved strong accuracy (AUC = 0.83), highlighting its robustness for biodiversity forecasting. Results indicated notable declines in wetland-associated species such as the Lesser Adjutant, particularly in areas undergoing rapid urban expansion, while forest specialists showed relatively stable populations within protected landscapes. Rainfall and forest canopy cover emerged as the most influential predictors of bird presence. Projections under a moderate warming scenario (~1 °C by 2030) suggest an upslope shift of approximately 300 meters in species distributions. These findings underscore the urgency of incorporating climate change projections into conservation planning and demonstrate how ensemble modeling can provide early warnings of biodiversity shifts in rapidly changing environments. Supplementary Material File (predictive_modeling_of_climate-driven_bird_biodiversity_shifts_in_chitwan_line no.docx) Download 1.62 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 23 September 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords climate change maxent random forest species distribution modeling xgboost Authors Affiliations Kritika Acharya 0009-0008-6168-8060 [email protected] Tribhuvan University Institute of Engineering Thapathali Campus View all articles by this author Madhu Ojha Tribhuvan University Institute of Engineering Thapathali Campus View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 202 views 99 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Kritika Acharya, Madhu Ojha. Predictive Modeling of Climate-Driven Bird Biodiversity Shifts in Chitwan. Authorea . 23 September 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175858755.55666182/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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