Orbital Trajectory Forecast for the Current Holocene Interglacial: A Raw Proxy Data Projection Based on Three-Cycle Average and Laskar (2004) Insolation Solution

Orbital Trajectory Forecast for the Current Holocene Interglacial: A Raw Proxy Data Projection Based on Three-Cycle Average and Laskar (2004) Insolation Solution | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 23 March 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Orbital Trajectory Forecast for the Current Holocene Interglacial: A Raw Proxy Data Projection Based on Three-Cycle Average and Laskar (2004) Insolation Solution Author : Jack H. Gray 0009-0007-0400-6943 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177429781.15329288/v1 210 views 178 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract This paper presents a five-phase orbital trajectory forecast for the current Holocene interglacial, derived exclusively from raw paleoclimate proxy datasets archived at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the Laskar (2004) orbital solution, and the three-interglacial full-cycle average of Marine Isotope Stages 5e, 7, and 9. No climate model output is used as evidence. Building on the baseline established in Gray (2026)-that the present represents the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) as confirmed by Buizert (2021) borehole thermometry at EPICA Dome C (TS_EDC: −54.73°C at 0 yr BP vs. −56.25°C at the IPCC-cited 7,200 yr BP peak)-this paper projects the five phases of the orbital descent: thermal maximum plateau, descent onset, recognizable cooling, glacial inception, and full glacial conditions. The three-interglacial full-cycle average (MIS 5e: ~20,000 yr; MIS 7: ~25,000 yr; MIS 9: ~25,000 yr) yields a mean cycle duration of approximately 23,300 years, placing the current Holocene at approximately 50% of its projected full duration. The Laskar (2004) orbital solution independently places the next 65°N summer insolation minimum approximately 6,000-7,000 years from present. Contemporary observational data (van Westen & Dijkstra 2026) showing a statistically significant northward Gulf Stream migration at Cape Hatteras (1965-2024) is identified as a Phase 1 observable consistent with orbital thermal maximum conditions. Central estimate for glacial inception: 10,000-12,000 years from present. Full glacial conditions: 50,000-70,000 years from present. Critical caveats regarding proxy resolution limits and unresolved anthropogenic perturbation are stated explicitly. The quantitative treatment of CO₂ forcing relative to this orbital baseline is provided in the companion papers Gray (2026c) and Gray (2026d). Supplementary Material File (gray2026b_v5_final.pdf) Download 351.47 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 23 March 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords glacial inception holocene thermal maximum milankovitch cycles orbital forecast Authors Affiliations Jack H. Gray 0009-0007-0400-6943 [email protected] View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 210 views 178 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Jack H. Gray. Orbital Trajectory Forecast for the Current Holocene Interglacial: A Raw Proxy Data Projection Based on Three-Cycle Average and Laskar (2004) Insolation Solution. Authorea . 23 March 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177429781.15329288/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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