A linear sensitivity framework to understand the drivers of the wet-bulb globe temperature changes

A linear sensitivity framework to understand the drivers of the wet-bulb globe temperature changes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A linear sensitivity framework to understand the drivers of the wet-bulb globe temperature changes Qinqin Kong, Matthew Huber This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4765660/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Better understanding of the physical drivers of sufficiently realistic representation of human heat stress is crucial for improving prediction and enhancing preparedness. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a standard metric for workplace heat stress, however, its calculation involves complex parameterizations of radiative and convective energy exchange. Thus it is difficult to understand the driving mechanisms behind WBGT changes. To address this issue, we introduce a sensitivity framework to analytically evaluate WBGT's response to meteorological input changes. By examining the form of sensitivity coefficients we gain insights into the interactive effects of multiple environmental parameters in controlling WBGT. Given constant wind and solar radiation, the natural wet-bulb and black globe temperatures change at the same rate and direction as the wet- and dry-bulb temperatures, despite considerable differences in their absolute values. The framework, while having state-dependent sensitivity coefficients, can be linearized, transforming WBGT into a linear combination of temperature, specific humidity, surface pressure, and terms representing wind and solar radiation effects. These explicit and mathematically tractable relations between WBGT and more intuitively understandable variables enable us to leverage established theories and methods to understand the driving mechanisms of WBGT changes. We apply the framework to understand the physical drivers of regional WBGT scaling with global warming and extreme WBGT synoptic events. The sensitivity framework also provides a universal approach to develop locally tuned linear approximations of WBGT and can be used to diagnose the sources of biases in other empirically derived approximations. Atmospheric Sciences Wet-bulb globe temperature sensitivity framework driving mechanism Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files WBGTsensitivityframeworkJCsupplement.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4765660","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":328950279,"identity":"2be9d9ee-6fc0-4c2c-a626-ded7899e6e2c","order_by":0,"name":"Qinqin Kong","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCRDx8Z8NiDIAEYwNxGhhnMGWRqIWZh62wyRokWzvPfyah+d8nsHtw9skPjDYyG44QECLNM+5NMs5EreLDc6llUnOYEgzJqhFTiLHzOCNwe3EDWd4zKR5GA4nEqeFJ+EcRMsfhv+EtUhL5Bg/5DlwAKKFgeEAYS2SPWfMGGc2JBdLnmErtuwxSDaeSUiLxPEe4w8fG+zy+M4wb7zxo8JOto+QFiBgA8VNAoRtQFg5CDB/QGgZBaNgFIyCUYAFAADxqERC6ES2ggAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4593-3643","institution":"Purdue University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qinqin","middleName":"","lastName":"Kong","suffix":""},{"id":328950453,"identity":"641e1a51-008a-46af-9694-70dbbd7047f4","order_by":1,"name":"Matthew Huber","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Purdue University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matthew","middleName":"","lastName":"Huber","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-19 02:21:50","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4765660/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4765660/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":60782890,"identity":"98bb8fb7-b319-4e64-a6af-46821f297713","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-22 03:51:19","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":35275340,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"WBGTsensitivityframeworkJC.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4765660/v1_covered_4f74bd44-fab4-4027-b838-2c4d2c1e8caf.pdf"},{"id":60782719,"identity":"41064793-61cf-4c58-a259-01c969afb8a1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-22 03:42:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":535801,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"WBGTsensitivityframeworkJCsupplement.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4765660/v1/62f41497d465f23d5f1431d0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eA linear sensitivity framework to understand the drivers of the wet-bulb globe temperature changes\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Purdue University West Lafayette","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Wet-bulb globe temperature, sensitivity framework, driving mechanism","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4765660/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4765660/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eBetter understanding of the physical drivers of sufficiently realistic representation of human heat stress is crucial for improving prediction and enhancing preparedness. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a standard metric for workplace heat stress, however, its calculation involves complex parameterizations of radiative and convective energy exchange. Thus it is difficult to understand the driving mechanisms behind WBGT changes. To address this issue, we introduce a sensitivity framework to analytically evaluate WBGT's response to meteorological input changes. By examining the form of sensitivity coefficients we gain insights into the interactive effects of multiple environmental parameters in controlling WBGT. Given constant wind and solar radiation, the natural wet-bulb and black globe temperatures change at the same rate and direction as the wet- and dry-bulb temperatures, despite considerable differences in their absolute values. 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