Error Correction Model Analysis of Production and Consumption of Sugar in Ethiopia

Error Correction Model Analysis of Production and Consumption of Sugar in Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Error Correction Model Analysis of Production and Consumption of Sugar in Ethiopia Seyoum Woldebrehan Agalu, Yeshambal Kindu, Ebsa Teha This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4251128/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 3 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Each gram of sugar provides the body with four kilocalories. Sugar is a naturally occurring, non-toxic, sweet-tasting, water-soluble crystalline carbohydrate. Beet sugar or sugar cane is the primary source of sugar; additional sources include honey, corn syrup, fruits, and others. From Central Statistical Agency Sugar Corporation of Ethiopia annual data during the period of September 1954–2021 GC in Ethiopia, this study examined the link between the production and consumption of sugar. In this work, non-stationary time series was changed in to stationary time series by using differentiating. At 5% level of significance, all series are non-stationary at the level according to unit root tests, and stationary at first difference. The output of Johansson's cointegrated suggests that at 95% confidence level, at least one Cointegration vector exists and there is a long-run relationship between the production and consumption of sugar in the case of Ethiopia. One was discovered to be the ideal amount of delay. Different models might have conducted prior research on integration in other nations, but Ethiopia has not yet. A VECM analysis was used to empirically evaluate and confirm this result. The VECM, which implies that Ethiopia's current sugar output was considerably influenced by previous first-lag values of its own and consumption of sugar amounts, is better suited than the VAR model. Positive results are seen for sugar consumption that lags on its own. Similar to the production of sugar, the current consumption of sugar was likewise positively impacted by both its own past first-lag values and previous first-lag values. The production and consumption of sugar are expected to increase during the next five years, according to the VECM (1) trend of forecasting. Cointegration Sugar consumption Sugar production Time series VECM Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files rawdata.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editor assigned by journal 15 Apr, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Apr, 2024 First submitted to journal 11 Apr, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4251128","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":291341601,"identity":"82ba4579-05ad-4ff3-bfb4-ddb1d5b9f1b8","order_by":0,"name":"Seyoum Woldebrehan Agalu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA40lEQVRIie3PuwrCMBSA4YQDcYm6WqrvUCgURNBnKQVd3FwUxQuBvo3rmS0BuxS6Vly8PEEHoS5iG5wbR8H8w8kZ8kFCiMn0gzkH2HbUBhBdyoO39IR+SIMFTkXY96TNPbXoSbzbnYq59PeCeIvHdNhlBK63rIZ4SSQGPJE+SjI+9zAoH8Zcd1pHMj+0aajI8WwhlIQzW0es56siNJxZuNGTUUk6zW1FgNEcpZ701V+OExclA5tizBlo/uLEIjoVq0EP0zTPn7gctRvieq8jn4SawNXUX69aq0mL726bTCbTn/UGiYFPDVUPNSEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Oda Bultum University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Seyoum","middleName":"Woldebrehan","lastName":"Agalu","suffix":""},{"id":291341603,"identity":"0a702fea-ca05-4183-b20b-95ac1eaf96b1","order_by":1,"name":"Yeshambal Kindu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Debark University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yeshambal","middleName":"","lastName":"Kindu","suffix":""},{"id":291341605,"identity":"ed8ba94f-7f66-46da-a676-acb23ddcb29e","order_by":2,"name":"Ebsa Teha","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Oda Bultum University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ebsa","middleName":"","lastName":"Teha","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-04-11 08:27:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4251128/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4251128/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":54871296,"identity":"b4b6a2cc-a91b-4ea1-ba79-badcb0affcb1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-18 01:17:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":426906,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptlast12.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4251128/v1_covered_d40e6138-ce06-4822-95ac-729a37c6550e.pdf"},{"id":54870953,"identity":"7c804d27-e187-4fc7-a4ba-81c28524fbb4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-18 01:09:32","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":12915,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rawdata.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4251128/v1/72f8a6953f0285b9996d19f3.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Error Correction Model Analysis of Production and Consumption of Sugar in Ethiopia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"swiss-journal-of-economics-and-statistics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"sjes","sideBox":"Learn more about [Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics](https://sjes.springeropen.com/)","snPcode":"41937","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/41937/3","title":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Open","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Cointegration, Sugar consumption, Sugar production, Time series, VECM","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4251128/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4251128/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEach gram of sugar provides the body with four kilocalories. 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