Population and habitat responses to the global climate change in a widespread species, the Asiatic Toad (Bufo gargarizans)

Abstract: Global climate change is gradually changing the distribution and diversity pattern of species. In order to study the change of distribution area and distribution barycenter of Bufo gargarizans under climate change, we adopted the maximum-entropy modeling (Maxent) model and barycenter migration analysis. And four General circulation models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 29 environment variables (including bioclimate, topography, habitat and human impact) were used to predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) distribution of B. gargarizans. The results show that the Mean temperature of Driest quarter (Bio9), Precipitation of driest month (Bio14) and population (POP) have greater influence on the distribution of B. gargarizans, it indicates that climate and anthropogenic factors have greater influence on the distribution of B. gargarizans than other environmental factors such as topography and landform. And in the next 30 to 50 years, from the perspective of the large spatial scale of the whole China, the distribution area of B. gargarizans is in the eastern part of China, the southeastern part is reduced, and the Midwest and northwest part is expanded. On the whole, the suitable habitat of B. gargarizans will be reduced in the future and will migrate to the high latitude and altitude area. In this study, B. gargarizans was used as a sentinel species to study the response of amphibians to climate change, this paper aims to reveal the mechanism of amphibian response to climate change from the current and future dispersal patterns of B. gargarizans.