Markets For Children: International Adoptions, IVF, and U.S. Foster Care

Markets For Children: International Adoptions, IVF, and U.S. Foster Care | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Markets For Children: International Adoptions, IVF, and U.S. Foster Care Anand Murugesan, Robert Innes This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5318080/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Oct, 2025 Read the published version in Review of Economics of the Household → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The likelihood that a child in U.S. foster care is adopted depends upon alternatives available to parents. We analyzed a child-level panel from 1998 to 2004, when international adoptions peaked in the US, to estimate the effect of international adoptions and assisted reproductive technologies (ART) on adoption probabilities for foster children, focusing on infants and toddlers. Using granular data on the adopted children's country of origin and placement state, we identify the impact of international adoptions with a shift-share instrument. We find that international adoptions have significant and robust negative effects on foster adoptions, while the estimated effects of ART births are smaller and sensitive to model specification. JEL Classifications: I38, J13, J18 Foster Care International Child Adoption In-vitro fertilization Adoption Tax Credits Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Oct, 2025 Read the published version in Review of Economics of the Household → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 11 Dec, 2024 Reviews received at journal 25 Nov, 2024 Reviews received at journal 21 Nov, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Oct, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Oct, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Oct, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 27 Oct, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Oct, 2024 First submitted to journal 23 Oct, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5318080","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":371905534,"identity":"a334f252-9505-475f-9897-dd575a2f29c9","order_by":0,"name":"Anand Murugesan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHAD5gMQ+gDxWtgSSNbCY0CcFt0Zuc8kv1TUyZuzn/n44WMbgxzfjQT8WsxupJtJy5w5bLizJ3ez5Mw2BmNJwlrS2KQl2w4wbjiQu42Zt40hcQNxWv7V2W84/+YZ8982hnqitEh+bGAGGp7DxszYxpBgQFDLmWfM1gzHDidvuPHMWLLnnIThzDMPCGg5nsZ480dNne2G88kPP/wos5HnO07AFhBg5kGwJQgrBwHGH8SpGwWjYBSMgpEKAEyDSBzDUxz1AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Central European University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anand","middleName":"","lastName":"Murugesan","suffix":""},{"id":371905535,"identity":"db36b984-e8cc-43c9-a55c-8a11c0ccb746","order_by":1,"name":"Robert Innes","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California, Merced","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Innes","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-23 10:23:09","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5318080/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5318080/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-025-09811-3","type":"published","date":"2025-10-16T15:57:51+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93956743,"identity":"2942aabb-dc76-44d1-959b-020a4fbd96b7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-20 16:12:04","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1004757,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MarketsforChildrenREH.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5318080/v1_covered_34892b41-62f8-4e9d-ad97-52d39580569b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Markets For Children: International Adoptions, IVF, and U.S. Foster Care","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"review-of-economics-of-the-household","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"reho","sideBox":"Learn more about [Review of Economics of the Household](http://link.springer.com/journal/11150)","snPcode":"11150","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11150/3","title":"Review of Economics of the Household","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Foster Care, International Child Adoption, In-vitro fertilization, Adoption Tax Credits","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5318080/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5318080/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe likelihood that a child in U.S. foster care is adopted depends upon alternatives available to parents. 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