The relationships between political stability, military expenditures, arms imports, and oil exports: a CS-DL approach for six Gulf countries

The relationships between political stability, military expenditures, arms imports, and oil exports: a CS-DL approach for six Gulf countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The relationships between political stability, military expenditures, arms imports, and oil exports: a CS-DL approach for six Gulf countries Slim Ben Youssef This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7150515/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We consider the relationships between military expenditures, arms imports, political stability, oil exports, gross domestic product, and greenhouse gas emissions in a panel of six oil-exporting countries of the Gulf region and annual data ranging from 2000 to 2023. Second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests are used because of the cross-sectional dependence between our considered variables. The cross-sectional distributed lag (CS-DL) methodology is performed to estimate our long-run coefficients. Several novel results are highlighted. In the long-run, arms imports increase political stability and economic growth. While military expenditures increase oil exports, arms imports slightly reduce them. Oil exports increase military expenditures but reduce arms imports. Political stability reduces military expenditures and increases gross domestic product. These oil-exporting Gulf countries are advised to reinforce their military efforts, in particular by planning the production of high-tech weapons, to improve their oil exports and thus their gross domestic product. Economic growth combined with political stability enables them to become producing and exporting renewable energy countries through adequate energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies. Jel classification: C33; H56; O53 ; Q37. Environmental Economics Military expenditures arms imports political stability oil exports cross-sectional distributed lag Gulf countries Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7150515","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":486986192,"identity":"b7bb8dd1-a488-4dfd-8383-2d0c04da6529","order_by":0,"name":"Slim Ben Youssef","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdsYGBiCCATk5wlqYUbUYGwMJKJ8NlxaEErCWxAZCWuSbmVs3MO6wyTM43mP88UeFQXo//+HnDxjbtskzyPcewKbF4DBj2w3GM2nFBmfOmEnznDHInTkjzbCBse22YQMbXwJWLcwgLW2HEzfcyDEDsv/kbrjBwwjSwtjAxmOA3WFgLf9BWow//vxnkG5//gxYiz0uLQxgh7UdAGkxkOBtMEgwYMgBa0nEpQXsl8QzyYkzzxwrk+Y5ZmA440aa4YyEc7eT29hysDusvf3ZjY877BL7jjdv/vijxkCev//wgw8fym7b9jOfwe4wEAAFjMIBdBFcMYmwroGQilEwCkbBKBixAAAUsmaF83MU2AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4297-3367","institution":"University of Manouba","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Slim","middleName":"Ben","lastName":"Youssef","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-17 15:22:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7150515/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7150515/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87152964,"identity":"a36db5cf-50a0-46ac-b861-d75ad5b3ec07","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-21 02:15:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":533625,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Paper2Gulf65.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7150515/v1_covered_a867ce7b-7409-4573-90fd-720576eaef76.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe relationships between political stability, military expenditures, arms imports, and oil exports: a CS-DL approach for six Gulf countries\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Military expenditures, arms imports, political stability, oil exports, cross-sectional distributed lag, Gulf countries","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7150515/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7150515/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWe consider the relationships between military expenditures, arms imports, political stability, oil exports, gross domestic product, and greenhouse gas emissions in a panel of six oil-exporting countries of the Gulf region and annual data ranging from 2000 to 2023. 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