The global burden and international disparities in edentulism among older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections extending to 2050

The global burden and international disparities in edentulism among older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections extending to 2050 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The global burden and international disparities in edentulism among older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections extending to 2050 tao Yu, xingqiang Wang, panting Tang, yaxi Song This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7064327/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Objective Edentulism severely impacts quality of life, leading to nutritional deficiencies and socio-psychological challenges. With global aging, its prevalence among the elderly is expected to rise, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study uses GBD 2021 data to assess edentulism's burden from 1990–2021 and predict trends until 2050. Methods We analyzed prevalence, DALYs, ASPR, and ASDR using GBD 2021 data. APC models assessed trends by age, period, and cohort. Health inequality was evaluated via regression and concentration curves, while decomposition analysis identified contributing factors. BAPC models predicted future burden. Results From 1990–2021, ASPR and ASDR declined in high-SDI regions but rose in low-SDI regions. Globally, ASPR decreased from 25,938.99 to 23,136.32 per 100,000, and ASDR from 693.9 to 617.35, with EAPCs of -0.44 and − 0.45, respectively. Bolivia, Peru, and Brazil had the highest burden in 2021. APC models showed significant age, period, and cohort effects, with higher SDI regions having lower inequality. Decomposition linked burden changes to aging, population growth, and epidemiological shifts. BAPC projects a rising burden over 30 years. Conclusion Edentulism remains a critical public health issue, with growing prevalence expected. Addressing it requires global and regional collaboration to ensure equitable, sustainable oral healthcare. edentulism elderly global burden of disease health inequality Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Figures S1-S5 are not available with this version. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7064327","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512480890,"identity":"250e87b0-dc48-48b4-b19e-7bdc5ae4e053","order_by":0,"name":"tao Yu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The 989st Hospital of the PLA Joint Logistics Support Force","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"tao","middleName":"","lastName":"Yu","suffix":""},{"id":512480891,"identity":"97426b68-593f-4316-8de2-3a23f0ca6366","order_by":1,"name":"xingqiang Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfvbmww8+VEjYsfE3HyBOi2TPsTTDGWcskvkljiUQp8XgRo6BNGdLBePMhhwDIl12I8HAmLFBgtngwJmPN94w2MnpNhDQwdjzIOFx4Q4JPoPDvZst5zAkG5sdIKCFmT3hgPHMMyBbzm6T5mE4kLiNkBY2hsQGad42CcYNB3KeEaeFhyOZAawF6H024rRI8BxjAwayBCiQjS3nGBDhF/vj/Z+BUVkHisqHN95U2MkR1IJmJbFRg6SFVB2jYBSMglEwIgAA2elF3ug95nwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"The 989st Hospital of the PLA Joint Logistics Support Force","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"xingqiang","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":512480895,"identity":"c23ae101-f88e-4715-97a5-099bb6beaa58","order_by":2,"name":"panting Tang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kexinmeng (Xi'an) Biotechnology Co., Ltd.","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"panting","middleName":"","lastName":"Tang","suffix":""},{"id":512480899,"identity":"6285a82a-52ff-4e88-8658-6a087c593ab4","order_by":3,"name":"yaxi Song","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The 989st Hospital of the PLA Joint Logistics Support Force","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"yaxi","middleName":"","lastName":"Song","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-07 10:23:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7064327/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7064327/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96312148,"identity":"8afbafca-8a45-4320-bb23-407e4820df0d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-19 16:38:33","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":973643,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7064327/v1_covered_bfe7994b-1504-4b5d-a02e-310301416cf6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eNo competing interests reported.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSupplementary Figures S1-S5 are not available with this version.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"The global burden and international disparities in edentulism among older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections extending to 2050","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"edentulism, elderly, global burden of disease, health inequality","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7064327/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7064327/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eObjective\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eEdentulism severely impacts quality of life, leading to nutritional deficiencies and socio-psychological challenges. With global aging, its prevalence among the elderly is expected to rise, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study uses GBD 2021 data to assess edentulism's burden from 1990\u0026ndash;2021 and predict trends until 2050.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe analyzed prevalence, DALYs, ASPR, and ASDR using GBD 2021 data. APC models assessed trends by age, period, and cohort. Health inequality was evaluated via regression and concentration curves, while decomposition analysis identified contributing factors. BAPC models predicted future burden.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eFrom 1990\u0026ndash;2021, ASPR and ASDR declined in high-SDI regions but rose in low-SDI regions. Globally, ASPR decreased from 25,938.99 to 23,136.32 per 100,000, and ASDR from 693.9 to 617.35, with EAPCs of -0.44 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.45, respectively. Bolivia, Peru, and Brazil had the highest burden in 2021. APC models showed significant age, period, and cohort effects, with higher SDI regions having lower inequality. Decomposition linked burden changes to aging, population growth, and epidemiological shifts. BAPC projects a rising burden over 30 years.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eEdentulism remains a critical public health issue, with growing prevalence expected. Addressing it requires global and regional collaboration to ensure equitable, sustainable oral healthcare.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The global burden and international disparities in edentulism among older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections extending to 2050","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-16 05:04:07","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7064327/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8a097b52-5f56-441c-9e57-66a98ea9da22","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 16th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-19T16:38:11+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-16 05:04:07","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7064327","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7064327","identity":"rs-7064327","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}