Tropical deforestation causes considerable heat-related mortality

Tropical deforestation causes considerable heat-related mortality | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Tropical deforestation causes considerable heat-related mortality Carly Reddington, Callum Smith, Edward Butt, Jessica Baker, Beatriz Oliveira, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5664782/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Tropical deforestation causes local climate warming and is a potential risk to human health. Previous studies have shown tropical deforestation increases heat stress and reduces safe outdoor working hours, but the impact of deforestation on heat-related mortality has not been quantified. Here we make the first pan-tropical assessment of the human mortality resulting from the local climate warming caused by tropical deforestation. Analysis of satellite data shows tropical deforestation during 2001 to 2020 exposed 345 million people to local climate warming with population-weighted daytime land surface warming of 0.27°C. We estimate this warming results in 28,000 additional deaths per year. Heat-related mortality rates were greatest in Southeast Asia with 9 deaths for every 100,000 people living in deforested areas, followed by Tropical Africa (5 deaths per 100,000 people) and Tropical Central and South America (3 deaths per 100,000 people). In regions that experienced forest loss, the local climate warming from deforestation is responsible for over one third of total climate related mortality highlighting the human health risk of local warming due to tropical deforestation. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5664782","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":406210797,"identity":"dda316b9-2c69-4ec2-849d-ff32dd784c06","order_by":0,"name":"Carly Reddington","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5990-4966","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carly","middleName":"","lastName":"Reddington","suffix":""},{"id":406210798,"identity":"f46ad827-67e8-4a99-b814-5f7773d0d233","order_by":1,"name":"Callum Smith","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Callum","middleName":"","lastName":"Smith","suffix":""},{"id":406210799,"identity":"51c681f9-ab32-4409-8486-c1632a9ffa7e","order_by":2,"name":"Edward Butt","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Edward","middleName":"","lastName":"Butt","suffix":""},{"id":406210800,"identity":"533f1a6f-5adf-44bf-86c3-d0c3d596840a","order_by":3,"name":"Jessica Baker","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3720-4758","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jessica","middleName":"","lastName":"Baker","suffix":""},{"id":406210801,"identity":"eb6d0353-dcd6-4e2c-9e9e-0e80b0e842bb","order_by":4,"name":"Beatriz Oliveira","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Oswaldo Cruz Foundation","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Beatriz","middleName":"","lastName":"Oliveira","suffix":""},{"id":406210802,"identity":"f5fb5b4e-a862-44dd-88b7-9ab3bf0e4e0d","order_by":5,"name":"Edmund Yamba","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Edmund","middleName":"","lastName":"Yamba","suffix":""},{"id":406210803,"identity":"c8e390f5-9af0-40a3-a2a1-980f6535615d","order_by":6,"name":"Dominick Spracklen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7551-4597","institution":"Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dominick","middleName":"","lastName":"Spracklen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-17 22:35:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5664782/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5664782/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0","type":"published","date":"2025-08-27T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90072296,"identity":"b875700c-d9c8-4c51-aa29-bcc6b0257532","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-28 07:16:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2690574,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Paperdraftdeforheathealthsubmissionversion.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5664782/v1_covered_e795d1a6-dcfc-4812-9c93-1ff518a980cc.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Tropical deforestation causes considerable heat-related mortality","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5664782/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5664782/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Tropical deforestation causes local climate warming and is a potential risk to human health. Previous studies have shown tropical deforestation increases heat stress and reduces safe outdoor working hours, but the impact of deforestation on heat-related mortality has not been quantified. Here we make the first pan-tropical assessment of the human mortality resulting from the local climate warming caused by tropical deforestation. Analysis of satellite data shows tropical deforestation during 2001 to 2020 exposed 345 million people to local climate warming with population-weighted daytime land surface warming of 0.27°C. We estimate this warming results in 28,000 additional deaths per year. Heat-related mortality rates were greatest in Southeast Asia with 9 deaths for every 100,000 people living in deforested areas, followed by Tropical Africa (5 deaths per 100,000 people) and Tropical Central and South America (3 deaths per 100,000 people). In regions that experienced forest loss, the local climate warming from deforestation is responsible for over one third of total climate related mortality highlighting the human health risk of local warming due to tropical deforestation.","manuscriptTitle":"Tropical deforestation causes considerable heat-related mortality","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-01-24 04:50:42","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5664782/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-climate-change","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nclimate","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Climate Change](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Climate Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d93fc5fa-f38c-44aa-a0f1-eac715db1559","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":43317472,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health"},{"id":43317473,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-28T07:15:52+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-5664782","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0","journal":{"identity":"nature-climate-change","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Nature Climate Change"},"publishedOn":"2025-08-27 04:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"August 27th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-01-24 04:50:42","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5664782","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5664782","identity":"rs-5664782","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}