The Promise of mRNA Cancer Vaccines: Potential Lives Saved and Economic Value in the U.S.

Background The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recently announced plans to curtail investment in messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine development, despite the central role played by the platform in preventing millions of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond infectious diseases, mRNA vaccines are showing promise in oncology, where early-phase clinical trials report meaningful improvements in overall and recurrence-free survival. Evaluating the potential public health and economic value of these therapies is critical for informing funding decisions.

We reviewed ongoing mRNA cancer vaccine clinical trials and extracted available survival outcomes. To project potential impact of mRNA vaccination on overall survival, we combined trial-based improvements in survival with incidence and demographic-adjusted survival rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of National Cancer Institute. A logistic regression framework estimated one- and three-year survival gains. We then applied the Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY, $604,000; 3% discount rate) provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to quantify the economic implications of forgoing mRNA investment.

In a single annual U.S. cohort of patients newly diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, renal cell carcinoma, or melanoma, mRNA vaccination could potentially avert approximately 49,000 deaths within three years of diagnosis. These projected survival gains translate to an estimated economic value of $75 billion.

Our findings underscore the substantial public health opportunity provided by mRNA cancer vaccines. Curtailing federal investment risks forfeiting these benefits, while sustained support could accelerate clinical translation and preserve infrastructure essential for future pandemic preparedness. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This study was funded by Notsew Orm Sands Foundation. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability All data produced in the present work are contained in the manuscript.