Viral dynamic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in non-human primates

Abstract Non-human primates infected with SARS-CoV-2 exhibit mild clinical signs. Here we used a mathematical model to characterize in detail the viral dynamics in 31 cynomolgus macaques infected with 106 pfu of SARS-CoV-2 for which nasopharyngeal and tracheal viral load were frequently assessed. We identified that infected cells had a large daily viral production (>104 virus) and a within-host reproductive basic number of 6 and 4 in nasopharyngeal and tracheal compartment, respectively. After peak viral load, infected cells were rapidly cleared with a half-life of 9 hours, with no significant association between cytokine elevation and clearance. Translating our model to the context of human-to-human infection, human mild infection may be characterized by a peak occurring 4 days after infection, a viral shedding of ~11 days and a generation time of 4 days. These results improve the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 viral replication and better understand the infection to SARS-CoV-2 in humans.