A life circle of the COVID-19 progression in a given region

Abstract The Verhulst equation with variable parameters is applied to identify the features of disease spread within the framework of the general balance ‘expended-reached’ factors. The mathematical model of this balance facilitates revealing the growth features that cannot be identified by the SIR-like models. The proposed approach reconstructs actual object behaviour without any additional information on its features. Postulating the functional properties of the required values is not performed. The observations are processed under the condition that the reconstruction should ensure the small residual between the sample and the model-calculated state function.