Simulation of Infectious Diarrheal Disease in Philippine Backyard Swine Industry

Simulation of Infectious Diarrheal Disease in Philippine Backyard Swine Industry | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Simulation of Infectious Diarrheal Disease in Philippine Backyard Swine Industry Jomar F. Rabajante, Elizabeth L. Anzia, Norvin P. Bansilan, Hanna Lyka C. Bontilao, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7200517/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Infectious diarrheal diseases, such as porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED), have caused significant piglet mortality in many countries, including the Philippines. These diseases remain a persistent threat to the swine industry, necessitating continuous monitoring due to their economic impact. Reports indicate that multiple fecal-oral transmission pathways contribute to the spread of diarrheal pathogens, complicating efforts to predict and control outbreaks. To address this, we developed a mathematical model incorporating various modes of disease transmission to analyze the dynamics of pathogen spread, with a particular focus on backyard farming. Backyard farms account for over 60\% of the swine industry in the Philippines, making them a critical factor in disease management and control. An agent-based simulation was used to examine the spread of the diarrhea-causing pathogen within individual farms and across a network of backyard farms. We considered three farm types based on their operations: farrow-to-finish, farrow-to-wean, and grow-to-finish. Our model predicts the speed of pathogen spread and piglet mortality, with consideration for the amount of pathogen shed by infected pigs. Additionally, we assessed the impact of two key parameters (immunity level and recovery rate) on disease control. Our results indicate that farrow-to-wean and farrow-to-finish operations experienced high mortality rates, primarily due to the heightened susceptibility of piglets to the disease. Moreover, in all farm types considered in the study, farm owners can maintain productivity in their swine operations amid diarrhea epidemics, given effective interventions are implemented. These findings are crucial for predicting the productivity of backyard farms affected by an outbreak. Animal Science Infectious Diseases Veterinary Epidemiology Mathematical and Theoretical Biology swine backyard farm Philippines diarrheal disease infectious disease model Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7200517","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":490026728,"identity":"123f690e-09be-420e-8b1c-9095fab6f6c5","order_by":0,"name":"Jomar F. 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