The response of the global overturning circulation to recent and projected Antarctic meltwater changes

The response of the global overturning circulation to recent and projected Antarctic meltwater changes | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 17 November 2025 V1 Latest version Share on The response of the global overturning circulation to recent and projected Antarctic meltwater changes Authors : Birte Gülk 0000-0002-5765-9557 [email protected] , Casimir de Lavergne 0000-0001-9267-7390 , Jean-Baptiste Sallée , Gurvan Madec , Clément Rousset , Anna Olivé Abelló 0000-0003-3136-8898 , and Violaine COULON 0000-0003-2683-7434 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176341048.84761066/v1 458 views 184 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract The Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves are losing mass and release freshwater to the ocean, affecting the global ocean state. The response of ocean circulation to recent and projected increases in Antarctic meltwater is still uncertain, because of considerable uncertainties in meltwater forcing and deficiencies in global ocean and climate models. Here, we use an equilibrated one-degree global ocean configuration that realistically represents Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and abyssal ventilation. With this model, we perform three meltwater hosing experiments covering the period 1990-2100: an ’Idealized’ experiment in which exactly 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 s -1 ) of freshwater is released uniformly around the Antarctic coast; a ’Realistic’ experiment, where reconstructed and projected freshwater anomalies are distributed in time and space based on state-of-the-art estimates of melting rates and processes; and a ’Semi-realistic’ experiment in which the same time-varying freshwater anomalies are released uniformly around the Antarctic coast. In all experiments, AABW transport at 64ºS decreases by about 80% before year 2060. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strengthens by approximately 2 Sv, driven by enhanced Southern Ocean upwelling. This upwelling increase results from a weaker compensation between eddy-induced and Ekman flows in the shoaled Southern Ocean mixed layer. In the idealized experiment, the AMOC ultimately weakens due to the propagation of large fresh surface anomalies to the subpolar North Atlantic. The timing of simulated overturning changes depends strongly on meltwater forcing; changes appear latest in the most realistic experiment. Supplementary Material File (1055163_0_merged_1762939812.pdf) Download 7.06 MB File (supportinginformation.pdf) Download 1.72 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 17 November 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords antarctic meltwater global overturning circulation ocean mixing ocean modeling oceanography Authors Affiliations Birte Gülk 0000-0002-5765-9557 [email protected] Laboratoire d'Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentations et Approches Numeriques View all articles by this author Casimir de Lavergne 0000-0001-9267-7390 LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Université‐CNRS‐IRD‐MNHN, View all articles by this author Jean-Baptiste Sallée LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS View all articles by this author Gurvan Madec LOCEAN View all articles by this author Clément Rousset LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université View all articles by this author Anna Olivé Abelló 0000-0003-3136-8898 Université Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/INRAE/G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement View all articles by this author Violaine COULON 0000-0003-2683-7434 Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) View all articles by this author Funding Information Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 101060452 Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 458 views 184 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Birte Gülk, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, et al. The response of the global overturning circulation to recent and projected Antarctic meltwater changes. Authorea . 17 November 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176341048.84761066/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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