Evaluating the Impact of South-North Joint Malaria Control Project on Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics in South Korea Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Evaluating the Impact of South-North Joint Malaria Control Project on Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics in South Korea Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Evaluating the Impact of South-North Joint Malaria Control Project on Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics in South Korea Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition Haram Seo, Byul Nim Kim, Arsen Abdulali, Sunmi Lee This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8075869/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Malaria re-emerged on the Korean Peninsula after elimination in 1979, driven by cross-border mosquito incursions and imported infections. Despite ongoing control efforts, transmission persists near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Major national programs, including the South–North Joint Malaria Control Project (2008–2011) and the Korean 5-Year Malaria Re-Elimination Plan (2019–2023), aimed to interrupt transmission and achieve elimination. Methods: We applied the Compatible-window Dynamic Mode Decomposition (CwDMD) framework to malaria incidence data from 2001–2024 across 17 provinces and 37 subregions. This data-driven approach identified dominant spatiotemporal transmission modes and assessed structural changes in regional synchrony and hotspot connectivity before and after interventions. Results: The South–North Joint Control Project (2008–2011) achieved a 63% reduction in national incidence between 2007 and 2011 and disrupted synchronization among border and metropolitan regions, indicating a shift in transmission structure. In contrast, the 5-Year Re-Elimination Plan (2019–2023) was associated with an approximately 49% decrease in incidence from 2018 to its lowest level in 2021; however, incidence subsequently increased by about 30% by 2023 relative to the pre-implementation level in 2018, accompanied by partial re-emergence of regional synchrony. Conclusion: Sustained malaria control requires not only reducing incidence but also weakening temporal and spatial coupling among high-risk regions. The CwDMD framework offers a robust tool for evaluating the impact of control measures and guiding adaptive, region-specific strategies toward malaria elimination in South Korea. Malaria Transmission Dynamics Spatiotemporal Analysis Compatible-window Dynamic Mode Decomposition Cross-border Transmission between South and North Korea South-North Joint Malaria Control Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files AdditionalFileNov10.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 01 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 26 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 10 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 10 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8075869","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":551504260,"identity":"5c57cdd2-392f-4390-bc94-3355236b1720","order_by":0,"name":"Haram Seo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kyung Hee University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haram","middleName":"","lastName":"Seo","suffix":""},{"id":551504263,"identity":"5feeb57f-a8a9-432f-84d3-d3e985d2efee","order_by":1,"name":"Byul Nim Kim","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kyung Hee 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Despite ongoing control efforts, transmission persists near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Major national programs, including the South–North Joint Malaria Control Project (2008–2011) and the Korean 5-Year Malaria Re-Elimination Plan (2019–2023), aimed to interrupt transmission and achieve elimination.\n\nMethods: We applied the Compatible-window Dynamic Mode Decomposition (CwDMD) framework to malaria incidence data from 2001–2024 across 17 provinces and 37 subregions. This data-driven approach identified dominant spatiotemporal transmission modes and assessed structural changes in regional synchrony and hotspot connectivity before and after interventions.\n\nResults: The South–North Joint Control Project (2008–2011) achieved a 63\\% reduction in national incidence between 2007 and 2011 and disrupted synchronization among border and metropolitan regions, indicating a shift in transmission structure. In contrast, the 5-Year Re-Elimination Plan (2019–2023) was associated with an approximately 49\\% decrease in incidence from 2018 to its lowest level in 2021; however, incidence subsequently increased by about 30\\% by 2023 relative to the pre-implementation level in 2018, accompanied by partial re-emergence of regional synchrony.\n\nConclusion: Sustained malaria control requires not only reducing incidence but also weakening temporal and spatial coupling among high-risk regions. 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