ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate

ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate Zhen Wang, wei Zhou, Changjia Li, Haicheng Zhang, Lindsay Stringer, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6534037/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract A thorough understanding of vegetation resilience to climate variability is critical for sustaining ecosystem functions and terrestrial carbon sinks. Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well-established as a key driver of global extreme weather events and vegetation dynamics, its impacts on vegetation resilience remain poorly understood. Here we estimated global present-day (1981–2018) and future (2015–2100) vegetation resilience using a 1-lag autocorrelation analysis of global leaf area index (LAI) time series, and investigate its teleconnection to ENSO. Our findings reveal that ENSO significantly affects vegetation resilience across 51% of the global land area, where 68% of vegetation resilience anomalies are directly attributed to ENSO, while the remaining 32% result from ENSO-climate interaction. Future projections suggest a 7–10% expansion in the area where ENSO-climate interactions affect resilience, with Eastern Siberia and northern North America newly affected. Our findings underscore the ENSO’s critical role in shaping vegetation resilience and highlight the need to integrate ENSO prediction into ecological restoration and climate-informed global ecological governance. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryTables.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6534037","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":454378427,"identity":"0d29f072-3451-468a-bb18-4b5d76ea104b","order_by":0,"name":"Zhen Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZhBRwcDAxs7ABhVKIEbLGaAWZqK1gABjG1gvkVrk23kPPvg4b5s8H1DLwx81hxn42XMMGH7uwK3F4DBfsuHMbbcN25gZ2A0kjh1mkOx5Y8DYewaPFmYeM2nebbcZgVrYJAzYDjMY3MgxYAY7FZfDmkFa5ty2B2tJ+HeYwZ6QFobDIC0NtxPBWg62AW2RIKDF4DCPseGMY7eT24DKJBv70nkkzjwrONiLz2H9ZwwffKi5bTu/vfmY5I9v1nL87ckbH/zE5zAEYGwAkTwg4gBRGkbBKBgFo2AU4AQA3BZFi4U//40AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7902-4093","institution":"Huazhong Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhen","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":454378428,"identity":"a315133c-ec00-43b0-9eae-6b0e99c79b96","order_by":1,"name":"wei Zhou","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"wei","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhou","suffix":""},{"id":454378429,"identity":"cd6aef53-7568-45b6-8915-d4624b3dbc49","order_by":2,"name":"Changjia Li","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7297-9658","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Changjia","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":454378430,"identity":"2f6dca5e-5919-4e56-a136-af47c4ce76e2","order_by":3,"name":"Haicheng Zhang","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9313-5953","institution":"Sun Yat Sen Univ","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haicheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":454378431,"identity":"66097350-16de-4e47-ba95-f45cb3bad016","order_by":4,"name":"Lindsay Stringer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0017-1654","institution":"University of York","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lindsay","middleName":"","lastName":"Stringer","suffix":""},{"id":454378432,"identity":"d8d3a0c9-06e3-47b0-9dde-774b6edcc881","order_by":5,"name":"Jingyu Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Huazhong Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jingyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":454378433,"identity":"6544f910-43df-4fbb-85df-4db96c6e5fe8","order_by":6,"name":"Zhongci Deng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Huazhong Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhongci","middleName":"","lastName":"Deng","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-26 09:25:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6534037/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6534037/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66987-z","type":"published","date":"2025-12-04T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99866217,"identity":"188d2f1b-0f24-4f44-b6a4-b4b6b4280e2d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-09 08:10:18","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2195277,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptnokeywords.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6534037/v1_covered_f6ed0600-967f-42d1-9aec-363538cbd42e.pdf"},{"id":82779659,"identity":"5a01747e-5ccc-478b-8781-05d45599594a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-15 07:54:10","extension":"xlsx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":16736,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryTables.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6534037/v1/c4f803a2b5db926a52762eab.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6534037/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6534037/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eA thorough understanding of vegetation resilience to climate variability is critical for sustaining ecosystem functions and terrestrial carbon sinks. Although the El Ni\u0026ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well-established as a key driver of global extreme weather events and vegetation dynamics, its impacts on vegetation resilience remain poorly understood. Here we estimated global present-day (1981\u0026ndash;2018) and future (2015\u0026ndash;2100) vegetation resilience using a 1-lag autocorrelation analysis of global leaf area index (LAI) time series, and investigate its teleconnection to ENSO. Our findings reveal that ENSO significantly affects vegetation resilience across 51% of the global land area, where 68% of vegetation resilience anomalies are directly attributed to ENSO, while the remaining 32% result from ENSO-climate interaction. Future projections suggest a 7\u0026ndash;10% expansion in the area where ENSO-climate interactions affect resilience, with Eastern Siberia and northern North America newly affected. Our findings underscore the ENSO\u0026rsquo;s critical role in shaping vegetation resilience and highlight the need to integrate ENSO prediction into ecological restoration and climate-informed global ecological governance.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-15 07:53:43","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6534037/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"777acd92-d74b-4667-ab72-fde44a4935f1","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 15th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":48317692,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"},{"id":48317693,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-09T08:09:52+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6534037","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66987-z","journal":{"identity":"nature-communications","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Nature Communications"},"publishedOn":"2025-12-04 05:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"December 4th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-15 07:53:43","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41467-025-66987-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66987-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6534037","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6534037","identity":"rs-6534037","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}