The Decline of Global Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI)  and Its Economic Consequences

The Decline of Global Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) and Its Economic Consequences | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Decline of Global Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) and Its Economic Consequences Iago Gomes Gonçalves, Ian Michael Trotter This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6254496/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As global energy demand continues to rise, evaluating the sustainability of energy production becomes increasingly important. This study investigates the impacts of rising energy consumption within the energy sector on the global economy. We use data from national input-output tables to calculate Energy Return on Investment (EROI) indicators for 76 countries using an expenditure - based approach, as well as for the world as a whole, covering the period from 1995 to 2020. Our findings reveal that EROI distribution follows a power law: while most countries exhibit low EROI values, only a small number of well - endowed countries exhibit a high EROI. The global EROI decreased at an annual rate of 1.6% over the period 1995 to 2020. If this trend continues, the energy sector would need to expand by nearly 24% by 2050 to satisfy the same final demand as in 2020, whereas global all-sector production would need to increase by 2.6%. This suggests that a declining EROI could be a considerable drag on global economic growth in the coming decades. On the other hand, global EROI actually increased in the period from 2012 to 2020 - likely due to the declining costs and expanding deployment of renewable energy - although it remains uncertain whether this marks a permanent reversal of the long-term downward trend. Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) Input-Output Analysis Energy Consumption Sustainability Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6254496","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":436002916,"identity":"448c18ad-bcbf-4646-be2b-2257b881e3aa","order_by":0,"name":"Iago Gomes Gonçalves","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidade Federal de Viçosa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Iago","middleName":"Gomes","lastName":"Gonçalves","suffix":""},{"id":436002917,"identity":"9a55e9c8-3a43-4a38-b8b6-4a24a3e04207","order_by":1,"name":"Ian Michael Trotter","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxUlEQVRIie3PsQrCMBCA4SuBdDntmiLYV4iLpRDwVTJlKi4uguDqUvUFfBSHg4Iu9Qm6dOqUQTdHKYh0S0aH/FNu+MgdQCj0h/HRO+pAAUgvQgACAZgE40FgRLjwItP4Qex1VftVfOx3qGvIZ+RYDNcaqDcC8b5sB1KctOuWUgJRLVAY3k7eBmTjWIwn9kuynm9Q+xDx+4Vzhlr5ECupIZNWjWHpRSssKgfJzuWi25JK4sMtelot5jk6yBCNBx8QCoVCIVcfjqA3dXlROboAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Universidade Federal de Viçosa","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ian","middleName":"Michael","lastName":"Trotter","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-18 15:08:30","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6254496/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6254496/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80095569,"identity":"0b553983-3291-42b8-bc36-0b00e583479b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 21:31:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1450538,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EROIIGGIMT.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6254496/v1_covered_ffc7a8c3-a449-4884-b74a-3cf496117db3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Decline of Global Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) and Its Economic Consequences","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI), Input-Output Analysis, Energy Consumption, Sustainability","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6254496/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6254496/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"As global energy demand continues to rise, evaluating the sustainability of energy production becomes increasingly important. This study investigates the impacts of rising energy consumption within the energy sector on the global economy. We use data from national input-output tables to calculate Energy Return on Investment (EROI) indicators for 76 countries using an expenditure - based approach, as well as for the world as a whole, covering the period from 1995 to 2020. Our findings reveal that EROI distribution follows a power law: while most countries exhibit low EROI values, only a small number of well - endowed countries exhibit a high EROI. The global EROI decreased at an annual rate of 1.6% over the period 1995 to 2020. If this trend continues, the energy sector would need to expand by nearly 24% by 2050 to satisfy the same final demand as in 2020, whereas global all-sector production would need to increase by 2.6%. This suggests that a declining EROI could be a considerable drag on global economic growth in the coming decades. 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