Producing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO2 to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100

Producing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO2 to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Producing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO 2 to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100 Hiroshi Kobayashi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8284972/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Despite the numerous threats associated with global warming, a sustainable solution is yet to be found. Whereas solar and wind power generation are being adopted worldwide, challenges such as limited installation space, reduced inertia of power grids, and large-scale energy storage issues persist. These challenges can be solved by the following measures: Distribute numerous floating offshore photovoltaic power plants across the vast equatorial waters to generate sufficient electricity to meet global primary energy demand; Use that electricity to produce green hydrogen and synthesize green fuel ammonia (a substitute for fossil fuels), which is a high-energy-density hydrogen energy carrier; Transport and store it worldwide with low losses via a pipeline network; Furthermore, remove more than 3,600 Gt of CO₂eq already accumulated in the atmosphere to less than 1,100 Gt, returning to 1960s temperatures. Based on the proportional relationship between cumulative CO 2 eq emissions and temperature rise, numerical analysis of global warming from 1850 to 2100 was performed under four scenarios. According to the results, the sooner this proposal is implemented, the lower the cost of returning to 1960s temperatures by 2100, and the lower the health damage will be. Additionally, carbon-free energy costs (unit price of electricity), including CO 2 eq removal costs, could be lower than the current levels. However, it cannot lower already risen sea levels. Support is requested for verification testing and practical implementation of this proposal. Energy Engineering Energy Engineering global warming floating offshore photovoltaic plants renewable energy green fuel ammonia worldwide pipeline network removing atmospheric CO2 Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files 20251220SupplementaryInformation.docx Producing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO 2 to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100 20251220SupplementaryInformation.docx Producing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO 2 to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8284972","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":562115315,"identity":"c865cce9-e0a4-4d5a-a94f-f76ef5333221","order_by":0,"name":"Hiroshi 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20:17:19","extension":"html","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":195761,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/34efc732ce1c559b6467d971.html"},{"id":99559504,"identity":"3216b88c-0af1-467a-a47d-ba43b92414ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-05 20:17:18","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":121053,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eWorld’s total primary energy consumption and energy sources from 1850 to 2023, with values forecast until 2100.\u003c/strong\u003e (\u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e) Projected trends in total primary energy (TPE) consumption, fossil fuel energy (FFE: Scenario 4), traditional clean energy (TCE: renewable, nuclear, hydroelectric power etc.) up to the year 2100 (created based on \u003cstrong\u003eSupplementary Fig. S2\u003c/strong\u003e). Since the 1960s, humanity has been consuming increasing amounts of TPE, mainly FFE, and if this trend continues, TPE consumption in 2100 will be 2.2 times higher than that in 2024, reaching 368 PWh/year. The TCE of 8.9% in 2024 will grow to 22.4% in 2100, however, the demand for TPE will not be met.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(\u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003e) In Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, FFE is replaced with CFE using G-NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e by 2035, 2050, and 2070, respectively. In Scenario 1, the replacement of FFE with CFE using G-NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e begins in 2027 and is completed in 2035 (9 years). Scenarios 2 and 3 begin in 2030 and are completed in 2050 (20 years) and 2070 (40 years), respectively. Scenario 1 has the greatest mitigation effect on global warming but requires immediate global consensus-building. Scenarios 2 and 3 correspond to the IPCC SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, respectively. In both scenarios, the impact of global warming on people, ecosystems, and the natural environment is significant, and it may be more effective to return to the temperatures of the 1960s all at once rather than aiming for the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, in Scenario 4 (corresponding to SSP3-7.0) shown in \u003cstrong\u003eFig. 1a\u003c/strong\u003e, if\u0026nbsp; global warming policies continue, temperatures will rise to 3.5℃ by 2100, and there is a possibility that several million to tens of millions of people will die due to heatstroke and other causes [31]. These scenarios are also discussed\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003ein \u003cstrong\u003eMethod 3: Strategies for curbing global warming\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this paper, replacing FFE with CFE is referred to as “achieving a carbon-free state”, and the hydrogen energy in the CFE for 2035, 2050, 2070, and 2100 is CFE2035 = 173 PWh, CFE2050 = 199 PWh, CFE2070 = 233 PWh, and CFE2100 = 285 PWh, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/45e5c369915eb83f648f4f1e.jpg"},{"id":99791802,"identity":"5e980736-56d4-46dd-888e-0eb3e08038c6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:10:31","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":71529,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNote: This map is provided under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic license. This license permits sharing (copy, distribute, transmit) and remixing (adapt).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFig. 2.\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eAll-sky radiation distribution on Earth and in candidate areas for FOPV installation. \u003c/strong\u003eThis map presents the annual average all-sky solar radiation (the sum of direct solar radiation and diffuse solar radiation scattered and reflected in the atmosphere) on the Earth’s surface, created by Loster using geostationary meteorological satellite data from 1991 to 1993, with FOPV candidate installation areas (blue reticulated ovals) added [37]. This data reveals that most equatorial waters within approximately 30° north and south latitude zones receive an annual average all-sky solar radiation of 240 [187 to 307] W/m\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e, making these areas highly suitable for solar power generation. Conversely, many land areas (deserts) are unsuitable due to their hot and dry conditions and strong winds, which can lead to significant performance degradation of solar panels.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurthermore, the equatorial waters can maintain photovoltaic (PV) panel temperatures at seawater levels, preventing performance degradation and enabling high efficiency (the output temperature coefficient of silicon crystalline solar cells is -0.4%/°C, meaning efficiency increases as the rear surface temperature decreases [4]).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe equatorial waters cover an area of approximately 164 million km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e [38] and have a huge potential for solar energy of 344 EWh per year (E = 10\u003csup\u003e18\u003c/sup\u003e), approximately 800 times the H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e energy in NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e in CFE2100 (285 PWh/year). The candidate areas for FOPV installations (blue reticulated ovals) along the coastlines of equatorial waters are selected based on their low susceptibility to oceans (less than 1 knot), minimal tsunami impact (water depths of 50 m or more), and proximity to the coast (average of 300 km). Harnessing this resource through offshore solar power generation, ammonia synthesis, and a global pipeline distribution network could provide a fundamental solution to global warming and fossil fuel depletion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMedium-capacity renewable energy plants (4 to 5 MW) integrating offshore solar and wind power generation are already being deployed in Europe [16-17]. Although these are not located in the equatorial waters, they demonstrate that large-scale offshore renewable energy systems are feasible.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/7577a5a8e37748025fa21eb9.jpg"},{"id":99791346,"identity":"74ae5cc7-1b98-4074-85a7-c39ac6d2f58d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 12:59:31","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":78457,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eProposed worldwide LNH\u003c/strong\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e pipeline network.\u003c/strong\u003e ECSS synthesizes G-NH₃ from HVDC power transmitted via submarine power cables from FOPVs located an average of 300 km away, then sends the liquefied LNH₃ to the pipeline network. Each trunk pipeline supports approximately 18.4 FOPVs (\u003cstrong\u003eSupplementary Table S3\u003c/strong\u003e). 3-way pumps distributed at 300 km intervals within the network supply a flow rate (Q) of approximately 0.9 m³/s to the network while storing 4 to 6 months' worth of LNH₃ in co-located tanks.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe trunk pipeline comprises carbon steel pipes, designed for high-pressure applications, and adheres to the Japanese Industrial Standards (JIS) [24]. The pipeline network is designed with a mesh structure, with pressurized pumps (most of them equipped with LNH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e tanks) spaced approximately 300 km apart. This configuration ensures a stable energy supply to diverse destinations, including:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThermal power plants with rotational inertia using NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e as fuel [9-10].\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIndustrial furnaces.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eH\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e reduction ironworks that utilize H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e instead of coke [39].\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ePorts for ships using NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e as fuel [11].\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAirports for aircraft utilizing H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e as fuel [40].\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eNH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e and H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e fueling stations for automobiles.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlthough water networks transport liquid at normal temperature and pressure, NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e is a gas under standard conditions. To maintain LNH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e in a liquid state, detailed configuration data for the pipeline network are required, including pipe diameter (ID) and length (L), Pa, temperature (T), Q, density (ρ), Hv, friction coefficient (λ), and height differences (ΔH) along the pipeline. Additionally, to adjust LNH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e supply and transport routes, fluctuations in demand and tank storage levels must be considered. In addition, shut-off valves need to be installed at various points in the pipeline network to prevent large-scale spills of NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e, which is acutely toxic. The characteristics and operational analysis of the NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e pipeline transport system are further detailed in \u003cstrong\u003eMethods 2\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/04eb7300f402396889277bfd.jpg"},{"id":99793043,"identity":"89d1e956-d69f-405e-b2e7-fc05a045385c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:30:55","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":103736,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eProportional relationship between cumulative CO\u003c/strong\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eeq and actual surface temperature rise.\u003c/strong\u003e (\u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e) Annual CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq emissions into the atmosphere (left axis) and cumulative CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq emissions in the atmosphere\u003cem\u003e \u003c/em\u003e\u003cimg width=\"55\" height=\"19\" src=\"data:image/png;base64,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\"/\u003e\u0026nbsp;(right axis) from 1850－2023. (\u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003e) Annual temperature rise observed between 1850 and 2023 (thin green line), the approximate curve of that temperature rise \u003cimg width=\"54\" height=\"19\" src=\"data:image/png;base64,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\"/\u003e\u0026nbsp;(thick red line), and the temperature rise estimated from cumulative CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq \u003cimg width=\"53\" height=\"19\" src=\"data:image/png;base64,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\"/\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e(blue thin line), with the average temperature relative to 1850－1900. The overlap of the blue and red (bold) lines shows that the estimated temperature rise due to cumulative CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq emissions closely matches the observed values, indicating that there is a close proportional relationship between cumulative CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq emissions and temperature rise (average error: ±0.0027℃/year). CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq here is the carbon dioxide equivalent, which is the weighted sum of the greenhouse gas methane (CH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e) and nitrous oxide (N\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eO) based on their global warming potential (GWP-100); this takes the differences in the greenhouse effect intensity and atmospheric lifetime of each of these gases into account, using CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e as the reference\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e[41-45]. As shown in (\u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e) and (\u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003e), the\u0026nbsp; amount of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq in the atmosphere exceeds 3,600 Gt and is increasing at a rate of over 50 Gt CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq per year.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;To return to the temperatures of the 1960s, the amount of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq in the atmosphere must be reduced to 1,100 Gt or less.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/f4cebab70afe31edc4e6876f.jpg"},{"id":99791401,"identity":"2500b348-2030-42ce-83d6-c42b27c03403","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 12:59:42","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":149877,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eNumerical analysis of global warming from 1850 to 2100 and return to 1960s levels.\u003c/strong\u003e (\u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e) \u003cstrong\u003eScenario 1\u003c/strong\u003e: Achieve a carbon-free state by 2035. By around 2035, the temperature rise will reach 1.55℃ (best estimate), slightly above 1.5℃. To keep the temperature rise below 1.5℃, a CDR of 13 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year is required. To return to 1960s temperatures, a CDR of 33 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year is required.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(\u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003e) \u003cstrong\u003eScenario 2\u003c/strong\u003e: Achieve a carbon-free state by 2050. This scenario aims to achieve the SSP1-1.9 scenario; however, due to the time required to reach a global consensus, the start of the project is delayed until 2030. As a result, the temperature rise may exceed 1.7℃ around 2050, causing intolerable effects of global warming worldwide. To limit the rise in temperature to below 1.5℃, a CDR of 33 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year is required. If a CDR of 40 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year is carried out, it can return to 1960s levels (0.4℃) by 2100.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(\u003cstrong\u003ec\u003c/strong\u003e) \u003cstrong\u003eScenario 3: \u003c/strong\u003eAchieve carbon-free state by 2070. Although the aim is to achieve SSP1-2.6, the temperature will rise by 2.0℃ around 2070, and the survival of humanity will be threatened. To limit the rise in temperature to below 1.5℃, a CDR of 39 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year is required. If a CDR of 48 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year is carried out, it will be possible to return temperatures to the 1960s by 2100.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(\u003cstrong\u003ed\u003c/strong\u003e) \u003cstrong\u003eScenario 4\u003c/strong\u003e: This scenario corresponds to SSP3-7.0, which is the case where the\u0026nbsp; global warming policy is continued without reaching a carbon-free state. If nothing is done, then this scenario is the most likely outcome. The temperature rise will reach 3.5 [2.5 to 4.4]℃ by 2100. There is a possibility that several million to tens of millions of people will die due to heatstroke and other causes [31]. If the temperature is to be returned to 1.0℃ by 2100, then a CDR of 128 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year will be required, and if it is to be returned to the 1960s level, then a CDR of 159 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq/year will be required.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/fcfb09267e9ef48e100acbf5.jpg"},{"id":99791801,"identity":"c346f30b-7dea-4a38-accd-26092c41c739","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:10:29","extension":"jpg","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":56483,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOverview of the numerical analysis results for Scenarios 1 to 4 and prediction of CDR costs. \u003c/strong\u003eIn Scenarios 1 to 3, the period until the carbon-free state is achieved is delayed, and the maximum temperature rises at approximately 0.12℃ per 10 years. The CDR required to return to the 1960s also increases at approximately 4.2 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq per 10 years. In contrast, in Scenario 4, which does not include a carbon-free state, the temperature rises sharply at approximately 0.29℃ per 10 years, and the CDR also increases sharply at a rate of approximately 19 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq per 10 years. The CDR cost for returning to the 1960s is 1.1%–1.8% of the global GDP in Scenarios 1 to 3; however, in Scenario 4, the cost is 5.2% (\u003cstrong\u003eFig. 5\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003e7\u003c/strong\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/61350e66e4d62c853aa40917.jpg"},{"id":99559509,"identity":"ab143792-ea87-4f88-80a6-ef87c42d668a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-05 20:17:19","extension":"jpg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":32430,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEconomies of scale effect in CDR necessary to return the temperatures to those in the 1960s. \u003c/strong\u003eIn addition to DACCS (Direct Air Capture and Storage), various technologies for CDR or negative emissions, including BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage), ocean alkalization, ocean fertilization, ocean sequestration of plant residues, reforestation and forest regrowth, soil carbon sequestration, and biochar, are being developed. These technologies exhibit diverse costs and potential for removing CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e from the atmosphere. Assuming an initial DACCS cost of 300 [150 to 600] USD per ton CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e, this figure projects a declining trend in CDR costs driven by economies of scale. DACCS, characterized by a 3:7 fixed-to-variable cost ratio due to its energy-intensive CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq transportation and deep underground storage, is modeled with a 15% reduction in fixed costs and a 5% reduction in variable costs for each instance of the doubling of the CDR capacity; this leads to a rapid cost decrease with increasing CDR volume. In Scenarios 2 and 3, requiring 40 to 48 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e removal to achieve the temperature levels from the 1960s, the projected cost drops to 35 [17 to 61] USD per ton, representing a potentially manageable increase in energy prices (10.3%). The removal of other GHGs, such as CH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e and N\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eO, is discussed in \u003cstrong\u003eSupplementary Table S7\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/d3230b68b1a895ae0df6019e.jpg"},{"id":100356105,"identity":"44fb3c03-17f0-4974-ac0a-9d92ed5888e0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 06:52:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2143640,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"20251220ArticleFile.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2_covered_36fc2680-4c2d-4a80-acab-b792a257027c.pdf"},{"id":99791788,"identity":"7a635723-2124-41e4-bcdb-67f49af4fefd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:10:19","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2057517,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eProducing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO\u003c/strong\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"20251220SupplementaryInformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/a821beb46e49c35c2b351af3.docx"},{"id":99638348,"identity":"efae48d8-058e-4487-938a-4f6890fba230","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-06 17:50:45","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2057517,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eProducing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO\u003c/strong\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"20251220SupplementaryInformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8284972/v2/07b624655336fabe9f5b59fa.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eProducing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":true,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy Engineering, global warming, floating offshore photovoltaic plants, renewable energy, green fuel ammonia, worldwide pipeline network, removing atmospheric CO2","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8284972/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8284972/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDespite the numerous threats associated with global warming, a sustainable solution is yet to be found. Whereas solar and wind power generation are being adopted worldwide, challenges such as limited installation space, reduced inertia of power grids, and large-scale energy storage issues persist. These challenges can be solved by the following measures: Distribute numerous floating offshore photovoltaic power plants across the vast equatorial waters to generate sufficient electricity to meet global primary energy demand; Use that electricity to produce green hydrogen and synthesize green fuel ammonia (a substitute for fossil fuels), which is a high-energy-density hydrogen energy carrier; Transport and store it worldwide with low losses via a pipeline network; Furthermore, remove more than 3,600 Gt of CO₂eq already accumulated in the atmosphere to less than 1,100 Gt, returning to 1960s temperatures. Based on the proportional relationship between cumulative CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq emissions and temperature rise, numerical analysis of global warming from 1850 to 2100 was performed under four scenarios. According to the results, the sooner this proposal is implemented, the lower the cost of returning to 1960s temperatures by 2100, and the lower the health damage will be. Additionally, carbon-free energy costs (unit price of electricity), including CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq removal costs, could be lower than the current levels. However, it cannot lower already risen sea levels. Support is requested for verification testing and practical implementation of this proposal.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Producing Green Fuel Ammonia in Equatorial Waters, Piping It Worldwide, and Removing Atmospheric CO2 to Return to 1960s Temperatures by 2100","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":2,"date":"2026-01-05 20:17:14","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8284972/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-18 04:15:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8284972/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"220f5235-24e9-4721-8403-875c956c745a","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 5th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":59980777,"name":"Energy Engineering"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-30T11:57:23+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-05 20:17:14","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v2","identity":"rs-8284972","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8284972","identity":"rs-8284972","version":["v2"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}