Climate variability accelerates Thwaites Glacier collapse

Climate variability accelerates Thwaites Glacier collapse | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate variability accelerates Thwaites Glacier collapse Daniel Moreno-Parada, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8404100/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Over the last two decades, the contribution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise has doubled, and a substantial fraction of this mass loss has been linked to climate variability. Here, we analyse the future behaviour of Thwaites glacier under a noisy climate and show that climate variability alone is sufficient to trigger its collapse within approximately 300 years, while under present-day climate conditions, a complete disintegration occurs after 500-700 years. Low-frequency modes of ocean variability may accelerate disintegration by up to 250 years. Furthermore, from our simulations ensemble, we identify a “safety band" located within 60~km upstream of the current grounding line. Beyond this band, Thwaites Glacier undergoes a self-sustained retreat irrespective of ambient climate conditions. Grounding lines that remain within this band, however, still allow for glacier slowdown and even re-advance in the absence of ocean melt or if sub-shelf accretion occurs. The window for effective climate mitigation therefore remains open only while the grounding line stays within this safety band. Our results provide a robust metric for assessing glacier stability and highlight the need to account for climate variability in sea-level rise projections. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Thwaites Glacier Sea-level rise Grounding line Climate variability Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8404100","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":570691806,"identity":"697505c0-dd35-4ba5-9bbe-a5cc898c473a","order_by":0,"name":"Daniel Moreno-Parada","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8480-4510","institution":"Université Libre de Bruxelles","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Moreno-Parada","suffix":""},{"id":570691807,"identity":"997a2448-1c9f-4004-b3aa-d1ea9ae63317","order_by":1,"name":"Violaine Coulon","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2683-7434","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Violaine","middleName":"","lastName":"Coulon","suffix":""},{"id":570691808,"identity":"369400f8-572d-4603-830e-34a60a81c878","order_by":2,"name":"Frank Pattyn","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4805-5636","institution":"Université Libre de Bruxelles","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Frank","middleName":"","lastName":"Pattyn","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-19 11:22:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8404100/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8404100/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100370260,"identity":"8504c982-17a8-479d-ac78-d70f9f94cccf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 08:04:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4294971,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8404100/v1_covered_bf5dbe95-1365-49d4-bde0-1458a5475327.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Climate variability accelerates Thwaites Glacier collapse","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Thwaites Glacier, Sea-level rise, Grounding line, Climate variability","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8404100/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8404100/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Over the last two decades, the contribution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise has doubled, and a substantial fraction of this mass loss has been linked to climate variability. Here, we analyse the future behaviour of Thwaites glacier under a noisy climate and show that climate variability alone is sufficient to trigger its collapse within approximately 300 years, while under present-day climate conditions, a complete disintegration occurs after 500-700 years. Low-frequency modes of ocean variability may accelerate disintegration by up to 250 years. Furthermore, from our simulations ensemble, we identify a “safety band\" located within 60~km upstream of the current grounding line. Beyond this band, Thwaites Glacier undergoes a self-sustained retreat irrespective of ambient climate conditions. Grounding lines that remain within this band, however, still allow for glacier slowdown and even re-advance in the absence of ocean melt or if sub-shelf accretion occurs. The window for effective climate mitigation therefore remains open only while the grounding line stays within this safety band. 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