The effects of variable spatial aggregation on lymphatic filariasis transmission

The effects of variable spatial aggregation on lymphatic filariasis transmission | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The effects of variable spatial aggregation on lymphatic filariasis transmission Callum Shaw, Angus McLure, Kathryn Glass This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819933/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Parasites & Vectors → Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Elimination of Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a World Health Organisation goal, with several countries at or near prevalence thresholds. Where LF cases remain after mass drug administration, they tend to be spatially clustered, with an overdispersed individual worm burden. Both individual and spatial heterogeneities can cause aggregation of infection; however, few studies have investigated the drivers of heterogeneity and implications for disease elimination. We used a spatially explicit lymphatic filariasis model to investigate LF transmission in American Samoa at three spatial scales -- a well-mixed Territory-level model, a Village model with 64 groups, and a Sub-Village model with 316 groups. To reproduce American Samoan survey data, models with less spatial structure required increased individual-level bite aggregation. Threshold behaviour was present in the Territory model, but less evident in the models with spatial structure. As such, mass drug administration was most effective in the Territory model, while in the spatially structured models, successive rounds of mass drug administration only gradually increased the likelihood of elimination. With the addition of spatial structure, residual infections remained in limited groups and infection resurgence was slowed. Due to the impacts on potential intervention and surveillance strategies, it is critical that studies consider individual and spatial sources of heterogeneity to accurately model transmission and inform potential policy decisions. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Parasites & Vectors → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 02 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 27 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Aug, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Aug, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Aug, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 13 Aug, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Aug, 2024 First submitted to journal 29 Jul, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4819933","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":351578441,"identity":"e5c89a17-4efa-4caa-911d-a9b8610045cc","order_by":0,"name":"Callum Shaw","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5sYDIMqAgYHxAUQkgZAWxgaYFmYDkrWwSRClhb/9YMNh3hwGe3P2M2YVP3ccZuBnzzFg+NmGW4vEmUSglm0MiTt7csxu9p45zCDZ88aAsRePFgMGiJYEgwO5227wth1mMLgBtIUXnxb+h2At9gbn324r/AvUYg/UwvgXnxYJiC2MG27kbmMG2yKRY8CMzxaJGw8bDs7dJpG44cb7z9Kybek8EmeeFRyWOYdbC39/8sEHb7fZAB2WlvjxbZu1HH978saHb8pwa4FZBmfxgIgDBDWMglEwCkbBKMALAEo9VLvG8HwwAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Australian National University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Callum","middleName":"","lastName":"Shaw","suffix":""},{"id":351578442,"identity":"6605d7a4-4605-4a80-ab53-64b9d9479534","order_by":1,"name":"Angus McLure","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Australian National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Angus","middleName":"","lastName":"McLure","suffix":""},{"id":351578443,"identity":"3bd8f5c6-a698-43a1-bd12-84dd062ef574","order_by":2,"name":"Kathryn Glass","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Australian National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kathryn","middleName":"","lastName":"Glass","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-29 07:36:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819933/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819933/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-024-06582-1","type":"published","date":"2025-01-09T15:58:01+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":73694094,"identity":"78692ff6-68c3-4662-8ae7-f99513ef6106","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-13 16:10:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":7678425,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LFABMupdate.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4819933/v1_covered_ed2a0c9e-23f0-4e47-80fa-a725e91c1eb5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The effects of variable spatial aggregation on lymphatic filariasis transmission","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"parasites-and-vectors","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"parv","sideBox":"Learn more about [Parasites \u0026 Vectors](http://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"13071","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/13071/3","title":"Parasites \u0026 Vectors","twitterHandle":"@bugbittentweets","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819933/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819933/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Elimination of Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a World Health Organisation goal, with several countries at or near prevalence thresholds. 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