Mapping global cereal flows at subnational scales uncovers heterogeneities in sourcing dependencies

Mapping global cereal flows at subnational scales uncovers heterogeneities in sourcing dependencies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Mapping global cereal flows at subnational scales uncovers heterogeneities in sourcing dependencies Shruti Jain This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v3 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 3 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Subnational data on both domestic and international cereal flows is essential for understanding food supply chain vulnerabilities, yet no such dataset exists at a global scale. This study estimates spatially resolved cereal flow networks across 3,540 subnational regions in 195 countries using a triply-constrained spatial interaction model that simultaneously enforces regional supply-demand balance and consistency with reported bilateral trade statistics. Domestic distribution accounts for approximately 25% of global cereal consumption, and 17% is met through international trade. Nearly half of net importing countries contain surplus regions that supply grain domestically, while virtually every net exporting country retains deficit regions reliant on inflows. Crop-disaggregated supply profiles reveal that subnational regions with similar aggregate trade dependency can have fundamentally different supply structures, differing in which crops dominate their consumption, whether those crops are sourced locally, domestically, or internationally, and how concentrated their sources are. Source concentration over exporting countries varies across subnational regions and across crops, revealing vulnerability hotspots that national-level assessments cannot detect. These subnational, crop-specific flow estimates can support targeted policy interventions to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities and enable more spatially precise environmental footprinting of food supply chains. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics Scientific community and society/Agriculture Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx SupplementaryTable3.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 3 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5204730","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":520067342,"identity":"da86500d-ec0d-4412-9b26-0fb91033c165","order_by":0,"name":"Shruti Jain","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCRBhwMAMhIwPMGVwaTkA0cJsQIIWCJNNAkMGG5Cf3ftM+kMBAzt/O++xio9tdnIM7D0GDD9qGBJnNmDXYnDnuJkEyGESh/nSbs5sSzZm4DmWwNhzjCFxNg5bDCTS2MBaGA7zmN3mbTuQ2CCRfICBt4EhcR4uh82AapEHaikGaqlvkEhsYPyLRwvDDagWA6AWZqCWBAagLcwgW3A67EYas8UZAwlmw8M8xpIzziUbtgH9cljmmIQxLu8DHcZ4o+KPTbLc+TOGHz6U2cnzs/cYPnxTYyM74wAul4GBRDKcycYAjiicEQkHdgRVjIJRMApGwcgFAOPzTS7sfuTyAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8697-2673","institution":"University of Oxford","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shruti","middleName":"","lastName":"Jain","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-04 14:47:03","currentVersionCode":3,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v3","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v3","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106401443,"identity":"492eba8f-8424-4dc2-b041-758026ea6dd6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 08:53:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1055551,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptfile.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5204730/v3_covered_67f06e84-7893-4b7c-a4f7-44da5fba60d9.pdf"},{"id":105004734,"identity":"4cd21492-6b57-4490-9d40-5fb65fd805b3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-19 18:06:41","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2793966,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5204730/v3/0088949480c88ecd655da398.docx"},{"id":105004733,"identity":"265fb1a6-a738-45af-8e1e-7532540daa9a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-19 18:06:41","extension":"xlsx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":12392,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryTable3.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5204730/v3/6266eafab1c07fc4f34bf64e.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eMapping global cereal flows at subnational scales uncovers heterogeneities in sourcing dependencies\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v3","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v3","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSubnational data on both domestic and international cereal flows is essential for understanding food supply chain vulnerabilities, yet no such dataset exists at a global scale. This study estimates spatially resolved cereal flow networks across 3,540 subnational regions in 195 countries using a triply-constrained spatial interaction model that simultaneously enforces regional supply-demand balance and consistency with reported bilateral trade statistics. Domestic distribution accounts for approximately 25% of global cereal consumption, and 17% is met through international trade. Nearly half of net importing countries contain surplus regions that supply grain domestically, while virtually every net exporting country retains deficit regions reliant on inflows. Crop-disaggregated supply profiles reveal that subnational regions with similar aggregate trade dependency can have fundamentally different supply structures, differing in which crops dominate their consumption, whether those crops are sourced locally, domestically, or internationally, and how concentrated their sources are. Source concentration over exporting countries varies across subnational regions and across crops, revealing vulnerability hotspots that national-level assessments cannot detect. These subnational, crop-specific flow estimates can support targeted policy interventions to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities and enable more spatially precise environmental footprinting of food supply chains.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Mapping global cereal flows at subnational scales uncovers heterogeneities in sourcing dependencies","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":3,"date":"2026-03-19 18:05:55","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v3","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":2,"date":"2025-09-24 15:03:48","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2024-12-04 13:56:48","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5204730/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d1ca4b52-ae06-41f1-8c7b-dfba6faa796d","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 19th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":64247016,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability"},{"id":64247017,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics"},{"id":64247018,"name":"Scientific community and society/Agriculture"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-11T18:41:55+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-19 18:05:55","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v3","identity":"rs-5204730","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5204730","identity":"rs-5204730","version":["v3"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}