An Analytical Stochastic Stage-Structured Model for Pest Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Cydia pomonella in Italy

An Analytical Stochastic Stage-Structured Model for Pest Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Cydia pomonella in Italy | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article An Analytical Stochastic Stage-Structured Model for Pest Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Cydia pomonella in Italy Berk Tan Perçin, Sara Pasquali, Serena Baiocco, Federico Cavina, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9204874/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this work, we propose a novel phenological model to describe population dynamics based on a compound Poisson process driven development. The model offers an alternative to other well-established approaches founded on systems of ordinary or partial differential equations, in which, the stochasticity is driven by the Brownian motion. A key advantage of the proposed framework is that it prevents the age regression of individuals and allows for the analytical derivation of the number of individuals in each developmental stage into which the population is structured. The model is applied to Cydia pomonella , a major pest of pome fruit crops. The results obtained are highly promising and suggest that this approach constitutes a valuable alternative to traditional models based on partial differential equations for simulating the population dynamics. Ecological Modeling Population Biology Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Codling moth Population dynamics Stage-structured populations Compound Poisson Process Integrated pest management Pest phenology Predictive modeling Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9204874","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":610979488,"identity":"6574ed70-a14f-433a-8478-ba27f48ba059","order_by":0,"name":"Berk Tan 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