Air travel as Catalysts for Urban Development: Examining Thunderstorm Occurrence on Flight Operations in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Nigeria

Air travel as Catalysts for Urban Development: Examining Thunderstorm Occurrence on Flight Operations in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Nigeria | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Air travel as Catalysts for Urban Development: Examining Thunderstorm Occurrence on Flight Operations in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Nigeria Friday Noah Idoko, Ishaya Sunday, Senator Endurance OKOSUN, Ezinneka Eunice Okodudu, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8503300/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Despite significant advancements in technology, the aviation industry faces high rates of climate related events. Hence, this study aims to evaluates the impact of thunderstorm on flight operations at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja Nigeria from 1991–2020. The study employed secondary data of thunderstorm occurrences from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), and flight operations data from Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) both at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja. Descriptive statistics and Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation were employed for the study. Findings derived from the study revealed that thunderstorms occurred in rainy season months with August registering the highest mean occurrence at 19 accounting for 17.32% of the total. July and September closely followed, with mean occurrences of 18 and 19 respectively. The lowest months were January and December with mean occurrences of just 0.4 and 0.5 respectively. The Monthly frequencies of thunderstorm occurrences and flight operations, diversions recorded a total number of 3648 (29.6%) with the highest number of diversions in August (481), The study recommends future studies that would integrate additional data variables such as wind speed, rainfall, and other climatic parameters. Air travel Aviation industry Flight Operations Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport Thunderstones Weather events Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 1 Introduction The aviation industry faces significant safety related challenges, with a high rate of weather events such as thunderstorms. The reasons adduced is that, thunderstorm is a very significant climatic element that affects air travel and its operational activities. Aviation is among the other mode of transportation available in the globe, needed for global transformation of nations and urban development [ 1 ]. Thus, air transport is recognized world over as the quickest, safest and the most reliable means of movement from one continent to another [ 2 ]. Aircraft travels through the atmosphere varies, vertically and horizontally in pressure, temperature, density and atmospheric humidity. It contains variable quantity of water vapor, which when condensed produce a gaseous fog and continues like that to cloud, sleet hail and precipitation all which affect visibility [ 3 ]. The visibility of the pilot is dependent on various meteorological conditions such as thunderstorms, fog, rain and hail which are the principal cause of flight cancellations, diversions or delays [ 4 , 5 ]. In the 21st century of human habitat, a secure air travel terminal is a secure nation and the nations of the world quests for air travel terminals that will be among some leading hubs globally and or in their continent should as in Asia, Europe, North America, South America and Africa. Among continents of the world, Africa airspace is definitely unrealizable without a safe and secure air travel. Studies shown in North America by Spyrou, [ 6 ], in Scotland, Eroupe; Enete [ 7 ], in Port Harcourt southern Nigeria; Igbokwe [ 8 ] in Lagos, South Western Nigeria; all aimed at addressing urban development in the contest of impact of weather on flight operations. Several related studies have been carried out, addressing the impact of thunderstorm on flight operations. Some of these studies are included in work [ 7 , 9 ], Welli & Emenike [ 10 ], Qualley (2013), Kulesa et al (2013), Sani, (2010), Spyrou, (2010). These studies however tend to consider the air travel terminal for smooth flight operations particularly when landing and take-off, that is why Hauf & Sasse [ 11 ] stressed that most of the air crashes were caused by severe thunderstorm. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), [ 12 ], 71% of accidents in Nigeria are caused by poor weather conditions (thunderstorms, visibilities, fog etc.). Due to the functioning capacity of airports, a region`s airspace, can be reduced due to bad weather, leading to delays, diversions and cancellations of flight [ 11 ]. The statistics of air travel terminal mishaps in Nigeria are mainly due to thunderstorm hazards with the inclusion of human errors ageing aircraft, and deficiency in safety management system. It is against this background that this study seeks to examine the impact of thunderstorms on flight operations over a climatic period of thirty years (1991–2020) to ascertain the characteristics and trend of thunderstorms occurrences at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria. 2. Literature Review There is a large body of literatures devoted to the impact of thunderstorm on air travel /flight operations. The importance of determining the role of thunderstorm on aviation industry cannot be understated. This section reveal relevant researches that have been carried out globally, in Africa and Nigeria to date. 2.1 Thunderstorm Thunderstorms are meteorological events that bring heavy rains, strong winds, hail, lightning, and tornadoes [ 12 ], Thunderstorms are generated by atmospheric imbalance and turbulence caused by a combination of several conditions, including unstable, warm air arising rapidly in to the atmosphere, sufficient moisture to form clouds and rain, and upward lift of air currents caused by colliding weather fronts (cold and warm), sea breezes, or mountains [ 12 , 13 ]. A thunderstorm is classified as severe if its winds reach or exceed 58 mph, it produces tornado, or it drops surface hail at least 1 in. (quarter-sized) in diameter [ 13 ]. Thunderstorm events is one of the major climatic factors observed to which affected flight operations in the aviation industry [ 1 ]. Thunderstorms continue to play a significant role in number of aviation accident and incident, adverse weather events (thunderstorm) seems to be the main factor of plane crash and other accident in aviation industry. For example, Russian passenger plane crashed in heavy storms and exploded in flames after slamming down short of the run way, killing 44 and critically injured 8 people [ 14 ]. Also for instance the Tenerife airport disaster was a fatal runway collision between two Boeing 747s at Los Rodeos Airport on the Spanish islands due to poor weather hazard (thunderstorm), again the crash was caused by poor weather conditions (thunderstorm, fog), which killed 583 people, making it the deadliest accident in aviation history Result of a recent research from the United State of America shows that, the total thunderstorm impact is an estimated national cost of about $ 3 billion for injuries, delays and unexpected operating cost [ 4 ]. In Africa, Victor [ 15 ] observed that the pattern of thunderstorm occurrences is significance to airline operations. When Aircraft passes through the updraft to a strong downward of cloud, there is a danger of structural damage of flight. In the same way, Hauf & Sasse [ 11 ] noted that, dust storm is strong turbulent wind carrying large cloud of dust. In a large storm clouds, fine dust may raise to heights of over 10,000ft and carry it for hundreds or thousands of kilometer, for example lose deposited in North-West china from Sahara Desert. The statistics of air mishaps in Nigeria are mainly due to thunderstorm hazards with the inclusion of human errors ageing aircraft, and deficiency in safety management system [ 16 ]. Also in Nigeria Sosoliso Airlines flight 1145 crash landed on the runway at Port Harcourt International Airport on 10 December 2005. Deaths were 108 people on board, including 61 secondary school students, the cause of the crash is believed to be weather related (thunderstorm) [ 17 ]. In 2006, investigation in Nigeria DHL airline revealed that in Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt airport was host to a couple of these accidents which occurred between take-off and landing and is caused by thunderstorm. The crashes of ADC airline, Sosoliso airline, DHL airline and Belleview aircraft among others has safely placed Nigeria as one country with worst safety record in the preceding years, and this has resulted in Nigeria been ranked number four (4) in the world coming after Congo, Uganda, and Tanzania in air traffic disaster. Therefore, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) [ 18 ], were advice to improve on weather and climate forecast for safe operations of aircraft. The problem being envisaged in finding solutions to the rampant air disaster in Nigerian Airspace by the aviation authority is the negligence in addressing the weather factors identified among the causative factors. This is because when air disasters occur blames are being apportion to the human and economic factors, with little or nothing been said about the weather (Natural) factors, such as thunderstorm, visibility, and fog [ 19 ]. Several studies have been carried out in some tropical regions, it was revealed that, thunderstorms occur year-round. In mid-latitudes, they develop most frequently in spring, summer, and fall [ 20 ]. In the United States, between 75 and 100 Americans are hit and killed by lightning each year [ 13 ]. Many air disasters have been linked to thunderstorms due to the unpredictable and turbulent wind conditions they cause and the threat of electronic or mechanical failure caused by lightning strikes [ 21 ]. When humans or structures are hit by lightning, the effect is devastating to both [ 22 ]. 2.2 Thunderstorms, Air travel terminal and Flight Operations The accurate forecasting of thunderstorm at most airports according to Klein, Kavoussi & Lee, [ 23 ], is in most case difficult. Nevertheless, accurate thunderstorm forecast is important especially if flight delay or diversion must be controlled at approaching or landing. Klein et al.., [ 23 ] has shown that even with the increasing sophistication of automatic landing equipment thunderstorm is still the major impediment to flight operations throughout the world. Ehigiator & Orakpo [ 3 ] reported that thunderstorm disrupted flight operations from Lagos to Owerri. While some airlines delayed flights to the northern part of the country for some hours, others cancelled their flights out rightly because the thunderstorm was worse. Ehigiator, & Orakpo [ 3 ] reported that thunderstorm resulted in the cancellation of flights from Lagos to Benin, Owerri and the Northern part of the country. NIMET [ 18 ] reported that year 2010 witnessed a few instances of disruptions due to severe weather conditions (thunderstorm). However, the month of August recorded severe thunderstorm occurrences at the range of 25,000 to 45,000 feet but occasionally extend above 65,000 feet which caused many disruptions in flight operations across the country [ 18 ]. These disruptions affected flight operations in Abuja, Lagos, Minna, kaduna, Enugu, Owerri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar airports [ 24 , 14 , 17 , 25 ]. There were also cases of outright cancellations [ 24 ]. In July to September, thunderstorm rainfall increases northwards and it was reported that in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt which reduced horizontal visibility to between 200m-800m [24.7,25]. This resulted in flight delays at these airports [ 24 ]. In addition, thousands of Europe-bound Nigerians were stranded at the Murtala Mohammed International Airport Lagos, as heavy snow storm pounded European airports in December [ 26 ]. Preliminary analysis of air traffic at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport Abuja shows August with the highest number of flight cancellations is largely due to thunderstorm frequency [ 27 ]. 2.3 Aircraft Accidents/Incidents and Causative Factors Recent studies revealed that thunderstorm, wind shear and microburst are hazardous meteorological phenomenon caused by sudden changes in the wind speed and, or direction over a short distance and, or short period, is particularly hazardous when it occurs at lower altitudes [ 25 ]. Thunderstorms imposes some dangers in aviation as convective weather systems are usually very severe in nature and pose very serious threat to both life and property especially in aircraft operations [ 26 , 9 ]. They are particularly hazardous to aircraft operations because of the down and updraft and lightning associated with such convective systems. In general, weather is a significant factor affecting safety in the skies as statistics indicate that weather contributes up to 70% of civil aviation accidents worldwide, either as a sole factor or among the causative factors (27]. On 24 June 1956, a British Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC) four-engine Canadair C-4 Argonaut airliner crashed into a tree on departure from Kano Airport in Nigeria, three crew and 29 passengers were killed, the accident was the result of a loss of height and airspeed caused by the aircraft encountering [ 28 ], at approximately 250ft after take-off, an unpredictable thunderstorm induced which gave rise to a sudden reversal of wind direction, heavy rain, and possible downdraft conditions [ 27 ] as shown in Table 1 . Also, Delta Air Lines Flight 191 was a regularly scheduled Delta Air Lines domestic service from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, to Los Angeles with an intermediate stop at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). On August 2, 1985, the Lockheed L-1011 TriStar operating flight 191 encountered a microburst while on approach to land at DFW. The aircraft impacted ground over one mile (1.6km) short of the run runway, struck a car near the airport, collided with two water tanks, and disintegrated, the crash killed 137 people and injured 25 others, the rapid and unexpected formation of a super cell, an extremely violent form of thunderstorm, led to the tragedy [ 29 , 30 ] as shown in Table 1 . Again, Arizona-Ogwu [ 31 ] reported that USAir Flight 1016 was a regularly scheduled flight in the Southeastern United States, between Columbia, South Carolina, and Charlotte, North Carolina crash on July 2, 1994, the flight encountered heavy thunderstorms and microburst-induced wind shear while attempting to land, and crashed in to heavy trees and a private residence near the airport, the crash and ensuing fire caused 37 fatalities and seriously injured twenty others [ 31 ]. In addition, Nigeria Airways Flight 357 was a scheduled domestic passenger flight from Yola in Yola Airport to Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos, stop at Yakubu Gowon Airport in Jos and Kaduna International Airport in Kaduna on 13 November 1995, the Boeing 737-2F9, during its second leg of the flight from Jos to Kaduna, suffered a runway overrun accident at Kaduna Airport, which is thunderstorm induced leading to a fire that destroyed the aircraft [ 32 ]. All 14 crew members survived, while 11 of the 124 passengers died (Accident Investigation Bureau [ 33 ] as shown in Table 1 . In order words, Sosoliso Airlines Flight 1145 was a scheduled Nigerian domestics passenger flight from Nigeria`s capital of Abuja to Port Harcourt on 10 December 2005, flight 1145 from Abuja crash-landed at port Harcourt international Airport (Table 1 ). The aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas DC-9-32 with 110 people on board, slammed into flames. Immediately after the crash, seven survivors were recovered and taken to hospital, but only two survived which is aggravated by thunderstorms and microburst induced wind shear [ 28 , 34 ]. In light of these, ADC Airlines Flight was a scheduled passenger flight operated by ADC Airlines from Nigeria`s capital of Abuja to Sokoto. (Table 1 ). On 29 October 2006, the Boeing 737-2B7 crashed onto a corn field shortly after take-off from Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja, killing 96 out of 105 people on board due to heavy thunderstorm [ 32 , 33 , 34 ]. Hence, Dana Air flight 0992 was a scheduled Nigerian domestic passenger flight from Abuja to Lagos, Nigeria on 3 June 2012, the McDonnell Douglas MD-83 aircraft serving the route suffered a dual-engine failure during its approach to Lagos (Table 1 ). It failed to reach its intended destination and crashed on to buildings killing all 153 people on board and six on the ground with 159 deaths, it remains as the deadliest commercial airliner crash in Nigerian history since Kano air disaster in 1973 which is thunderstorm induced as stated by Okwusogo [ 35 ] and Accident Investigation Bureau [ 34 ]. Table 1 Reported Air Crashes (Accidents/Incidents) Associated with Thunderstorm Hazards S/N. AIRLINE DATE CAUSE FATALITY MET. INFORMATION. 1. British Oversees Airport Corp. 24/06/ 1956 Weather 32 Passengers Strong down burst winds from a thunderstorm. 2. Delta Airline Flight 191 2/08/ 1985 Weather (micro Burst) More than 130 Thunderstorm/rain Storm. 3. Nigerian Airways, Port Harcourt. 15/10/ 1988 Weather 132 passengers But no fatality Recorded Heavy rain 4 USAir Flight 1016 02/07/ 1994 Weather 37 passengers Microburst induced Wind shear and spatial disorientation. 5. Nigerian Airways Kaduna 13/11/ 1995 Weather 29 passengers destroyed Dry thunderstorm with a 10–15 knots Tailwind. 6. Sky Executive 21/05/ 2002 Weather All passengers on board Thunderstorm and turbulence in cloud 7. Bell view Airlines, Lagos 22/10/ 2005 Weather 111 passengers and crews. Thunderstorm. 8. Sosoliso Airlines 10/12/ 2005 Weather 108 passengers Microburst-induced wind shear. 9. DHL 07/09/ 2006 Weather Aquaplaning No fatality recorded Squall and rain visibility of 600m and wind of 45 knots, sky obscured with CB of several direction. 10. ADC Airlines, Abuja. 29/10 /2006 Weather (micro burst) 96 passengers and crew Heavy thunderstorms. 11. Arik Airlines, Enugu, Flight W3232 14/07/ 2012 Weather 153 passengers Turbulence/ Heavy Rain. 12. Dana Airlines Lagos. 03/07/ 2012 Weather All passengers on board Thunderstorm. Source: Nigeria Safety Investigation Bureau, Nigeria , [ 36 ] Nearly all parts of the planet are known to have thunderstorms, though they are uncommon in the Polar Regions and seldom in latitudes higher 50 0 N and 50 0 S [ 12 , 20 ]. Therefore, thunderstorms incidences are most common in tropical and temperate regions of the earth. The characteristics are used to categorize or classify them, and these characteristics are heavily influenced by the meteorological environment in which the storms develop [ 37 ]. Empirical gaps of the Aviation Industry amidst thunderstorms on flight terminal The growth of aviation industry in Nigeria and the increased adoption of air transportation as one of the best means of transport have been obstructed by various weather hazards. There is a greater need for aviation weather forecasters to deliver quality forecasts. It is therefore necessary to identify the most dangerous and most common weather hazards which are detrimental to the aviation industry so as to enhance the expertise on addressing them. Weli & Ifediba [ 10 ] examined various weather hazards which include thunderstorm, fog, dust haze and line squall that affect flight operation such as flight delays, diversion and cancellation. The study revealed that fog accounted for 13.2% of flight cancellation at the airport and line squall similarly accounted for 10.1% of delays, 8.4% of diversion and 20% of cancellation from 2000–2009 at the airport in Nigeria. Despite the contributions of flight terminal in urban development, no real attempt has been made to study thunderstorm in its entire aspect diurnal, seasonal or annual, in a single study. Besides, thunderstorm is of local importance, it is imperative that, a smaller unit like Abuja Airport be study for a long period of 30years (1991–2020). This study seeks to carry out a detailed analysis of thunderstorm over Abuja Airport because of its importance in Nigeria. This study therefore is an attempt to investigate/examine the influence of thunderstorm on flight operations between 1991–2020 at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, as weather phenomena are tied to two seasons in Nigeria [ 38 ]. The conceptual scope of the study The conceptual scope is centered and limited to turbulent weather event (thunderstorms) on flight operations. The concept covers aspect of thunderstorm which is meteorology that is the formation, structure, and the distribution and frequency of thunderstorm occurrences. Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria. Abuja airport was chosen based on the fact that the facility is influenced by extreme weather conditions due to its location in the tropical region, and is one of the busiest airports in Nigeria. It provides flight services to both domestic and international destinations and it is a public airport operated by the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria [ 39 ]. The study area covers (30) thirty years (1991–2020). These periods were chosen so as to fill in the knowledge gap in the work of Abdulazzez [ 24 ] by providing data on thunderstorm occurrences and characteristics and their analysis monthly, yearly and in decades. Significance of the Study In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [ 40 ] report released on extremes weather particularly thunderstorms, heavy down pours and hurricanes which are extreme weather disaster affecting flight operations there is the need to ensure safety of flight operations through the provision of accurate weather report from meteorological stations. Hence, accurate weather forecast and its impacts, provide vital information as regards to implication of thunderstorms on flight operations to various agencies of government related to the prevention of thunderstorms hazards to aircraft operations such as ministry of aviation and aerospace development, ministry of transportation, Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN). It also geared toward making a forecast for the impact of thunderstorms on flight operations for the periods of thirty (30) years. This study will complement Nigeria Government`s efforts by providing deeper weather knowledge of its air space for smooth flight operations. This study intends to contribute this needed knowledge in order to solve the problem of flight delays, cancellations and diversions as well as plane crashes due to thunderstorm hazards. 3. Materials and Methods 3.1 The study area (Nigeria) The study area covers the confines of Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria. Established and commissioned on September 29, 1982, named after Nigeria’s first president, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe. The airport was built in 2000 and opened in 2002 [ 39 ]. It consists of international and a domestic terminal, both terminals share the same runway. It is about 49 kilometers south of the city, the airport covers an area of about 1,476km 2 and lies between latitude 8 0 59’ 0’’ and 9 0 1’ 30’’N and longitude 7 0 14’ 30’’E and 7 0 17’ 0’’E with altitude of 314.98m. The airport type is public, the elevation (AMSL) is 1, 123ft/342m above mean sea level (AMSL), run way direction is 04/22 and length is 3,610m/11,844ft [ 41 ]. The climate of the study area is generally (wet and dry climate) tropical {1]. This includes a warm, humid rainy season and a blistering dry season. The month of April mark out onset of the wet, this runs through to October yearly. The dry season begins from November to March of the following year. Abuja experiences AW or Tropical Climate. Source: GIS Lab. Federal University Lokoja, [ 42 ] 3.2 Research Method A quantitative research designs were employed to determine the monthly and annual thunderstorm occurrences, also to analyze the decadal conditions of thunderstorm occurrences in the study area. Data for this study includes; i). Monthly totals of thunderstorm frequency ranging from 1991–2020, which were used in determining its trend and daily flight operations data from 1997–2020; ii) Thunderstorms which define the number of thunder in each month of the specified years and the flight information data for the period of 30 years (1991–2020). Data was obtained through hourly and daily observations and recordings, which were later compiled and their monthly means computed; iv) Flight information and airport operational data includes (delays, diversion and cancellations) in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja were collected for the period of 23 years (1997–2020) because no available data on flight operations at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja from 1991, However, available data for this study were from 1997–2020. The study utilized secondary sources of data on thunderstorm, which were sourced from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and data on flight operations were sourced from Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA). The data on thunderstorms frequency from 1991–2020 were collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Headquarters in Abuja, while the data on flight cancellations, delays and diversions from 1997–2020 were collected from the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria. Data presentation includes; Monthly thunderstorm occurrences, annual and decadal thunderstorm occurrences from 1991–2020, relationship between thunderstorms and years of study. In analyzing the required data, simple statistical technique such as mean and graphs were employed. The statistical analyses employed were descriptive statistics which was used to determine the mean monthly and annual occurrences of thunderstorm and flight operations. Simple linear regression was used to establish the occurrences of thunderstorm values for the study area. 4. Results and Discussion The findings of the occurrences of thunderstorm disruptions on air travel in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Nigeria are presented below 4.0 Occurrences of thunderstorm at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja 4.1 Monthly Thunderstorm occurrences at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja from 1991–2020 The monthly occurrences of thunderstorm show that thunder occurrences were lowest in the month of January and December averaging less than 1 per month February and November also have relatively low averages, fewer than 2 occurrences per month. The months with highest number of thunderstorms were July, August, and September, particularly, August had the highest total occurrences over the 30 years with 576, averaging about 19 per year. July and September followed closely with averages of 18 and 18 occurrences respectively. The surge of thunderstorm activity occurred from March, with notable increase in the average monthly occurrences, peaking in August with a gradual decline in activity through to December. Specifically, the thunderstorm activity shows a substantial surge from April to October, with each of these months averaging more than 10 occurrences. Moreover, March and November act as transition months, where the activity begins to increase (March) and then decrease (November) considerably. This result is in agreement with the finding of Anne-Duncan [ 43 ] in Port-Harcourt International Airport Omagwa, Rivers State, Nigeria. In the study it was noted that the months of August and September are mostly characterized by thunderstorms and line squalls with the attendant turbulence, micro bursts and lightening. The mean monthly variability and trend of the occurrence of thunderstorms show a slightly increasing trend over the months in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport throughout the study period. This implies that occurrence of thunderstorms is more prevalence during the middle and ending of the year than the beginning of the year. The result of this study is in agreement with the result of Akanni et al , [ 27 ], which showed an increasing trend in the occurrence of thunderstorms from 2004 to 2013 in Lagos State. Meanwhile, the result is at variance with the findings of Enete et al . [ 7 ] which showed that thunderstorm occurrence was fluctuating without either a decreasing or increasing trend. The difference in the finding of Enete et al , [ 7 ] with this study could be due to the difference in the location and the period of the study. Overall, the results suggest a clear seasonal pattern for thunderstorms occurrence the months from April to October, particularly July to September, can be considered as the 'thunderstorm season' given the high averages of occurrence (Table 2 ). This could be due to climatic factors typical of the monsoon or summer season in many part of Nigeria and the study area inclusive. Conversely, the winter months (January and December) witness the least thunderstorm activity. The months right before and after the peak season (March and November) also experience relatively low occurrences, indicating the transition between low and high activity periods. This result is in agreement with the finding of Akanni et al , [ 27 ], in which it was found out that thunderstorms were most frequent in August and September and least frequent in December and January. This result is also in agreement with the finding of Maxwell [ 44 ], in Port-Harcourt International Airport Omagwa, Rivers State, which observed that the monsoon period of the year is the worst for bad weather and flight delays due to the resultant convective weather activities. Table 2 Monthly Occurrence of Thunderstorms in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja from 1991–2020 Months Total Occurrences Mean Occurrences % of Total Occurrences January 12 0.4 0.360902256 February 20 0.667 0.601503759 March 86 2.867 2.586466165 April 207 6.9 6.22556391 May 406 13.533 12.21052632 June 440 14.667 13.23308271 July 527 17.567 15.84962406 August 576 19.2 17.32330827 September 545 18.167 16.39097744 October 435 14.5 13.08270677 November 56 1.867 1.684210526 December 15 0.5 0.45112782 Source: Author`s work, 2023 4.2 Annual and Decadal Thunderstorm Occurrences at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, from 1991–2020 Annual The total annual thunderstorm occurrences for 30 years ranged from 88 (2017 and 2018) to 137 (2012). The 1990s showed a relatively stable frequency of thunderstorms, with a slight dip in 1995 but generally hovered around the 110 occurrences (Fig. 2 ). There's a noticeable dip in the year 2000 where occurrences dropped to 94, the lowest in the first decade of this study. The mid-2000s, especially from 2005 onwards, showed an increasing trend, peaking in 2007 at 130 occurrences. The highest thunderstorm occurrence of 137 was recorded in 2012. After 2012, there was a decline with the lowest thunderstorm occurrences of 88 in 2017 and 2018. These were the most significant dips during the study period. Towards the end of the period, thunderstorm number of occurrences hovered between 105–111(2019–2020). The annual occurrences reveal that 2012 had the highest number of thunderstorm occurrences at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja. The result is at variance with that of Akanni et al [ 44 ] in Murtala Muhammed international Airport, Lagos which showed that 2008 had the highest number of thunderstorm occurrences (Fig. 2 ) Decadal In terms of the decadal insights, the 1990s showed thunderstorm occurrences were relatively stable in the 1990s with slight fluctuations, which remained predominantly lower than 110. Also the early 2000s saw some decline in the number of thunderstorms, but the latter half of the decade marked an upward trend, reaching a peak in 2007. (Fig. 2 ) In the 2010s, the thunderstorm occurrences were slightly decreasing, reaching a high in 2012, then followed by a downward trend until 2018, and a slight recovery towards the end of the decade. The occurrences of thunderstorms have shown variability over the three decades, with certain years or periods having increased or decreased frequencies. The second decade (2001–2010) showed a clear increasing trend in thunderstorm occurrences, as indicated by the positive slope and a relatively high R² value. On the other hand, the first and third Decades (1991–2000 and 2011–2020) indicated weak decreasing trends especially in the first Decade (Fig. 2 ). This variability might have been influenced by changes in local weather dynamics, or other environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, visibility, wind speed, atmospheric instability, cloud cover, sea level and pressure. The result of this study agrees with that conducted by Akinsanola and Ogunjobi [ 46 ] in which long time trends and decadal trends further suggest a sequence of alternately decreasing and increasing decadal thunderstorm frequency in the study area. Sub-period The average occurrence showed that the sum of the occurrences in first sub-period (1991–2005) is 1631, so the average is 108.6 thunderstorms per year. The highest occurrence was revealed in 2005 with 128 thunderstorms, while the lowest occurred in 2000 having 94 thunderstorms. In terms of the characteristics, this sub-period (1991–2005) starts and ends with numbers around the lower 110s (Fig. 4.1). The occurrences fluctuate without any distinct rising or declining trend throughout the sub-periods. This sub-period generally experienced a slight increase in thunderstorm occurrences especially in 1991, 1997 and 2005 particularly stands out as sub-periods with notably high occurrences. In this sub-periods, the total thunderstorm occurrences were 1694, resulting in an average of 113 thunderstorms per year. The maximum peak occurred in the year 2012 with 137 thunderstorms. In 2017 and 2018 both the lowest occurrences in this sub-period showed 88 thunderstorms each (Fig. 2 ). These sub-periods are characterized with the highest (2012) and lowest (2017 and 2018) occurrences in the entire 30 years’ life span. While the sub-periods started with high occurrences, there was a noticeable dip in the latter half of this sub-period, particularly in 2017 and 2018. The sub-periods (2006–2020) experienced a slightly higher average of thunderstorm occurrences compared to the sub-periods (1991–2005). However, the sub-periods (2006–2020) saw an average closer to that of the sub-periods (1991–2005). It is worth noting the variability within each sub-period, with particularly high peaks and lows in the sub-periods (2006–2020). The 2007 with (130) occurrences and 2012 with (137) occurrences stand out with notably high thunderstorm occurrences. While 2017 with (88) and 2018 with (88) experienced the lowest thunderstorm occurrences over the 30-year period (Fig. 2 ). This sub-periods (2006–2020) analysis offers a broad view of the characteristics of thunderstorm occurrences, showing that while there are annual fluctuations, no distinct long-term trend can be deduced from the results. Over the 30-year period, while there have been years of increased thunderstorm activity, there have also been significant lows. The frequencies of thunderstorm showed a consistent upward or downward trend over the entire period but does display periods of increase and decrease which can be deduced from the result. The result showed clear inter-annual variability without any consistent upward or downward trend throughout the entire 30-year periods. Also this result is at variance with the findings of Enete et al , (2015) in Port-Harcourt International Airport Omagwa, Rivers State, which showed that thunderstorm occurrence was fluctuating without either a decreasing or increasing trend. This difference in result of Enete et al , [ 7 ] with this study could be due to the difference in the location and the period of the study. The finding is in agreement with the result of Maxwell [ 44 ], which observed that the monsoon period of the year is the worst for bad weather delays due to resultant convective weather activities. 4.3 Relationship between thunderstorms and years of study The changes in the (number of years) (x) are associated with changes in the (thunderstorm occurrences) (y). The negative slope of -0.0643 indicates that as the independent variable (x) increases by one unit, the number of thunderstorm occurrences (y) decreases by approximately 0.0643 units. In other words, there is a negative relationship between the number of year (x) and the number of annual thunderstorm occurrences (y), suggesting that as the value of x increases, thunderstorm occurrences (y) tend to decrease. The y-intercept is the value of y when x is equal to 0. In this case, when (x) is zero, the number of thunderstorm occurrences (y) is expected to be approximately 240. This intercept represents the estimated baseline number of thunderstorm occurrences when the R-squared value is 0.0023, it indicates that the number of year (x) included in the regression equation explain only a very small proportion of the variance in the thunderstorm occurrences but with the understanding that the model explains very little of the variation in thunderstorm occurrences. The negative slope of -0.0643 suggests that, for each unit increase in the number of year (x), the number of annual thunderstorm occurrences (y) is expected to decrease by approximately 0.0643 units. (Fig. 2 ) However, in this case, the model has a very weak explanatory power, so the relationship may not be practically significant despite being statistically significant the y-intercept represents the estimated baseline number of annual thunderstorm occurrences when the number of year (x) is zero, which is approximately 240. However, with an R-squared of 0.0023, it's important to understand that the model does not capture much of the variability in annual thunderstorm occurrences. Source: Author`s work 2024 The R-square suggests that there are other factors or variables such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, visibility, wind speed, atmospheric instability, cloud cover, sea level and pressure not included in the model that influence annual thunderstorm occurrences to a much greater extent. In such cases, the predictive power of the model is quite limited. This finding is in agreement with the work of Enete et al [7] which reported that there is a negative relationship between the number of year and the number of annual thunderstorm occurrences, but that the relationship was insignificant due to weather modification. It can be concluded that annual thunderstorm occurrences are not statistically significant, which agrees with the findings of Wellis and Emenike [16] which shows that there is no statistically significant relationship between the number of year and number of thunderstorm occurrences at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja. 5 Conclusion The result of the study showed that thunderstorm occurrences from 1991 to 2020 were lowest in the years 2000 and 2001 with 94, and 99 total occurrences, respectively while the monthly occurrences were highest in August (576) and lowest in January (12). Thunderstorm characteristics showed consistent frequencies in the 1990s, a growth trend in the 2000s, and a period of highs and lows in the 2010s, culminating in a moderate stabilization by the decade's end. The contributing effect of thunderstorm occurrences on flight operations was not significant (p-value > 0.05). The occurrences of thunderstorms in the next 30 years showed a high range of stability across the years (2021–2050). Based on the observations and conclusions drawn from the study, the following recommendations for further studies are proposed: To better understand the direct and indirect impacts of thunderstorms on flight operations, future studies should integrate additional data variables such as wind speed, rainfall, and other climatic parameters. This would provide a more holistic understanding of weather's impact on aviation. It would be beneficial to study and evaluate the current operational strategies of the airport, specifically during thunderstorm occurrences. Understanding the immediate responses, safety protocols, and backup plans in place can provide insights into real-world practices against theoretical predictions. A study focusing on the economic implications of flight delays, cancellations, and diversions due to thunderstorms would be beneficial. This would shed light on the financial strain or savings these weather occurrences might be causing the aviation industry. Considering the possibility of climate change effects on weather patterns, a longer-term study extending beyond 50 years may provide insights into more extended patterns and their impacts on aviation. Declarations Author Contribution Idoko, Friday Noah -IFN, Ishaya Sunday -IS, Okosun Senator Endurance-OSE, Ehigiator Irughe Raphael-EIR, Jegede Joy Anwuli-JJA, Daniel Adamu-DA, Kingsley Uchenna Kanu-KUK, Aladelokun Olawole Adeniji –AOA, Ipinmoroti Samuel Adejoro-ISA, David Omanayi Johnson-DOJ (Data Design IFN, IS, OSE, data collection: IFN, OSE, EIR, JJA, result interpretation, DA, IFN, OSE, KUK, Manuscript preparation: IFN, AOA, ISA, DOJ) Ethics Declaration This study relied exclusively on secondary, aggregated, and non-identifiable data obtained from publicly available or institutional sources, including meteorological records and flight-operation summaries. No human participants were involved, and no personal, medical, or sensitive individual-level data were collected, accessed, or analyzed. Consequently, ethical approval from an institutional review board was not required for this study. References Okosun, S. E., Fasakin, J. O., Basorun, J. O., Olamiju, I. O., & Aluko, E. A. (2021). An Appraisal of Electric Energy Supply Security in Residential Estates of Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. In J. N. Mojekwu, W. Thwala, C. Aigbavboa, L. Atepor, & S. Sackey (Eds.), Sustainable Education and Development (pp. 466–479). Springer Nature Switzerland AG. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-68836-3_40 Mohammwd, S., & Wasiu, I. (2007). Weather Hazards Impact on Flight Operations. Journal of Environmental Planning and Sustainability. Journal Article http://repositoryfutminna.edu.ng:8080/jspuie/123456789 . Pp 98–105. Ehigiator, K., Orakpo, E., & Nigeria (2010). Weather Haze Forces Flight Cancellation. Kulesa, G., Brodus, R., Jackson, D., & Pelton, F. (2013). 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Unpublished Bachelor’s thesis, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria. Zaria. Bureau of Meteorology. Hazardous Weather Phenomena: Thunderstorms (2022). Available from: http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/data/education/thunderstorm Onwuadiochi, I., Ijioma, M., & Ezenwaji, E. (2020). Effects of Wind Shear on Flight Operations in Sam Mbakwe Airport, Imo State, Nigeria. Tropical Built Environment Journal . 7(1). Akanni, C. O., Hassan, A. M., & Osuji, T. C. (2016). Empirical Analysis of Extreme Weather Conditions and Aviation Safety in Nigeria. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, 9(6), 680–690. Ayigbe, F. (2006). Federal Government Releases Sosoliso Plane crash Report. New Nigerian Newspaper . Kebbijan, R., & Statistics Causes of Fatal Accidents by Decade in Percentage (2009). Retrieve from statistics of cause of fatal accidents.htm. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Aviation Safety Reporting System (2012). Arizona-Ogwu, L. C. (2008). Air Transport.Enticing Our Citizens into Suicide Mission. Aderinto, S., & Dahunsi, I. (2008). The New Automated Meteorological Observation at Four Airports in Nigeria. Abuja. Available at Acident Investigation Bureau. (AIB). Reports of Aviation Accidents in Nigeria (2013). Accident Investigation Bureau (A.I.B). Reports of Aviation Accidents in Nigeria (2014). Retrieved October 10, 2015 from http://www.aib.org Okwusogu, C. F. (1999). The Problems and Prospects of Aviation Industry in Nigeria. Geographical study. Unpublished Bachelor’s Thesis, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria. Bureau, N. S. I., & Nigeria (2021). (NSIB) available http://NSIB.com. Stull, R., & Practical Meteorology (2017). Algebra- based Survey of Atmospheric Science . USA. GEHS. (2014). Environmental Impact Assessment report for the proposed Water pipeline laying Project in the FCT . EIA report submitted to Federal ministry of Environment. Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) Manual (2011). Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (2007). Climate Change: The Scientific. Nigerian Aeronautical Information Publication (NAIP). (2013). Part 3 Aerodromes (AD). AD2, Dnaa-1 . Nigerian Airspace Management Agency. Geographic Information Laboratory (2023). Federal University Lokoja. Anne-Duncan, P. (2010). Thunderstorm and Their Associated Hazards. AvStop Online Magazine . 1–2. Maxwell, I. (2008). Thunderstorm and weather Phenomenon Hazards to Flight Operation.1–5. Akanni, C. O., Hassan, A. M., & Osuji, T. C. Empirical Analysis of Extreme Weather Conditions and Aviation Safety in Nigeria. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, 9(6), 680–690. (2016) . Akinsala, I., & Ogunjobi, A. (2014). Impact of Thunderstorms on Flight Operations. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. 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1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":736458,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAbuja showing the Study Area.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: GIS Lab. Federal University Lokoja, [42]\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8503300/v1/2bc9edfee8f2072d4767c802.png"},{"id":99795569,"identity":"b6319dac-0c88-4a9e-b431-04223fd2bbc2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:38:51","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":90993,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThunderstorms Frequency\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author`s work 2024\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8503300/v1/620ce012aeeb7fe42d157a2c.png"},{"id":105034775,"identity":"76d94329-d5aa-4f49-91e4-207dc0348351","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-20 07:24:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1660004,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8503300/v1/e1ac6358-1d31-4d4f-812f-ec4f130ddcbd.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Air travel as Catalysts for Urban Development: Examining Thunderstorm Occurrence on Flight Operations in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Nigeria","fulltext":[{"header":"1 Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe aviation industry faces significant safety related challenges, with a high rate of weather events such as thunderstorms. The reasons adduced is that, thunderstorm is a very significant climatic element that affects air travel and its operational activities. Aviation is among the other mode of transportation available in the globe, needed for global transformation of nations and urban development [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. Thus, air transport is recognized world over as the quickest, safest and the most reliable means of movement from one continent to another [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e]. Aircraft travels through the atmosphere varies, vertically and horizontally in pressure, temperature, density and atmospheric humidity. It contains variable quantity of water vapor, which when condensed produce a gaseous fog and continues like that to cloud, sleet hail and precipitation all which affect visibility [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e]. The visibility of the pilot is dependent on various meteorological conditions such as thunderstorms, fog, rain \u003cem\u003eand\u003c/em\u003e hail which are the principal cause of flight cancellations, diversions or delays [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn the 21st century of human habitat, a secure air travel terminal is a secure nation and the nations of the world quests for air travel terminals that will be among some leading hubs globally and or in their continent should as in Asia, Europe, North America, South America and Africa. Among continents of the world, Africa airspace is definitely unrealizable without a safe and secure air travel.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStudies shown in North America by Spyrou, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e], in Scotland, Eroupe; Enete [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e], in Port Harcourt southern Nigeria; Igbokwe [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e] in Lagos, South Western Nigeria; all aimed at addressing urban development in the contest of impact of weather on flight operations. Several related studies have been carried out, addressing the impact of thunderstorm on flight operations. Some of these studies are included in work [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e], Welli \u0026amp; Emenike [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e], Qualley (2013), Kulesa \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e (2013), Sani, (2010), Spyrou, (2010). These studies however tend to consider the air travel terminal for smooth flight operations particularly when landing and take-off, that is why Hauf \u0026amp; Sasse [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e11\u003c/span\u003e] stressed that most of the air crashes were caused by severe thunderstorm.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e], 71% of accidents in Nigeria are caused by poor weather conditions (thunderstorms, visibilities, fog etc.). Due to the functioning capacity of airports, a region`s airspace, can be reduced due to bad weather, leading to delays, diversions and cancellations of flight [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e11\u003c/span\u003e]. The statistics of air travel terminal mishaps in Nigeria are mainly due to thunderstorm hazards with the inclusion of human errors ageing aircraft, and deficiency in safety management system. It is against this background that this study seeks to examine the impact of thunderstorms on flight operations over a climatic period of thirty years (1991\u0026ndash;2020) to ascertain the characteristics and trend of thunderstorms occurrences at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Literature Review","content":"\u003cp\u003eThere is a large body of literatures devoted to the impact of thunderstorm on air travel /flight operations. The importance of determining the role of thunderstorm on aviation industry cannot be understated. This section reveal relevant researches that have been carried out globally, in Africa and Nigeria to date.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1 Thunderstorm\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThunderstorms are meteorological events that bring heavy rains, strong winds, hail, lightning, and tornadoes [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e], Thunderstorms are generated by atmospheric imbalance and turbulence caused by a combination of several conditions, including unstable, warm air arising rapidly in to the atmosphere, sufficient moisture to form clouds and rain, and upward lift of air currents caused by colliding weather fronts (cold and warm), sea breezes, or mountains [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e13\u003c/span\u003e]. A thunderstorm is classified as severe if its winds reach or exceed 58 mph, it produces tornado, or it drops surface hail at least 1 in. (quarter-sized) in diameter [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e13\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThunderstorm events is one of the major climatic factors observed to which affected flight operations in the aviation industry [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. Thunderstorms continue to play a significant role in number of aviation accident and incident, adverse weather events (thunderstorm) seems to be the main factor of plane crash and other accident in aviation industry. For example, Russian passenger plane crashed in heavy storms and exploded in flames after slamming down short of the run way, killing 44 and critically injured 8 people [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e14\u003c/span\u003e]. Also for instance the Tenerife airport disaster was a fatal runway collision between two Boeing 747s at Los Rodeos Airport on the Spanish islands due to poor weather hazard (thunderstorm), again the crash was caused by poor weather conditions (thunderstorm, fog), which killed 583 people, making it the deadliest accident in aviation history Result of a recent research from the United State of America shows that, the total thunderstorm impact is an estimated national cost of about \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e3\u0026nbsp;billion for injuries, delays and unexpected operating cost [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Africa, Victor [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e15\u003c/span\u003e] observed that the pattern of thunderstorm occurrences is significance to airline operations. When Aircraft passes through the updraft to a strong downward of cloud, there is a danger of structural damage of flight. In the same way, Hauf \u0026amp; Sasse [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e11\u003c/span\u003e] noted that, dust storm is strong turbulent wind carrying large cloud of dust. In a large storm clouds, fine dust may raise to heights of over 10,000ft and carry it for hundreds or thousands of kilometer, for example lose deposited in North-West china from Sahara Desert.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe statistics of air mishaps in Nigeria are mainly due to thunderstorm hazards with the inclusion of human errors ageing aircraft, and deficiency in safety management system [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e16\u003c/span\u003e]. Also in Nigeria Sosoliso Airlines flight 1145 crash landed on the runway at Port Harcourt International Airport on 10 December 2005. Deaths were 108 people on board, including 61 secondary school students, the cause of the crash is believed to be weather related (thunderstorm) [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e17\u003c/span\u003e]. In 2006, investigation in Nigeria DHL airline revealed that in Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt airport was host to a couple of these accidents which occurred between take-off and landing and is caused by thunderstorm. The crashes of ADC airline, Sosoliso airline, DHL airline and Belleview aircraft among others has safely placed Nigeria as one country with worst safety record in the preceding years, and this has resulted in Nigeria been ranked number four (4) in the world coming after Congo, Uganda, and Tanzania in air traffic disaster. Therefore, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e18\u003c/span\u003e], were advice to improve on weather and climate forecast for safe operations of aircraft. The problem being envisaged in finding solutions to the rampant air disaster in Nigerian Airspace by the aviation authority is the negligence in addressing the weather factors identified among the causative factors. This is because when air disasters occur blames are being apportion to the human and economic factors, with little or nothing been said about the weather (Natural) factors, such as thunderstorm, visibility, and fog [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e19\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeveral studies have been carried out in some tropical regions, it was revealed that, thunderstorms occur year-round. In mid-latitudes, they develop most frequently in spring, summer, and fall [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e20\u003c/span\u003e]. In the United States, between 75 and 100 Americans are hit and killed by lightning each year [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e13\u003c/span\u003e]. Many air disasters have been linked to thunderstorms due to the unpredictable and turbulent wind conditions they cause and the threat of electronic or mechanical failure caused by lightning strikes [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e21\u003c/span\u003e]. When humans or structures are hit by lightning, the effect is devastating to both [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e22\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2 Thunderstorms, Air travel terminal and Flight Operations\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe accurate forecasting of thunderstorm at most airports according to Klein, Kavoussi \u0026amp; Lee, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e23\u003c/span\u003e], is in most case difficult. Nevertheless, accurate thunderstorm forecast is important especially if flight delay or diversion must be controlled at approaching or landing. Klein et al.., [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e23\u003c/span\u003e] has shown that even with the increasing sophistication of automatic landing equipment thunderstorm is still the major impediment to flight operations throughout the world. Ehigiator \u0026amp; Orakpo [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e] reported that thunderstorm disrupted flight operations from Lagos to Owerri. While some airlines delayed flights to the northern part of the country for some hours, others cancelled their flights out rightly because the thunderstorm was worse. Ehigiator, \u0026amp; Orakpo [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e] reported that thunderstorm resulted in the cancellation of flights from Lagos to Benin, Owerri and the Northern part of the country. NIMET [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e18\u003c/span\u003e] reported that year 2010 witnessed a few instances of disruptions due to severe weather conditions (thunderstorm). However, the month of August recorded severe thunderstorm occurrences at the range of 25,000 to 45,000 feet but occasionally extend above 65,000 feet which caused many disruptions in flight operations across the country [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e18\u003c/span\u003e]. These disruptions affected flight operations in Abuja, Lagos, Minna, kaduna, Enugu, Owerri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar airports [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e24\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e14\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e17\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e25\u003c/span\u003e]. There were also cases of outright cancellations [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e24\u003c/span\u003e]. In July to September, thunderstorm rainfall increases northwards and it was reported that in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt which reduced horizontal visibility to between 200m-800m [24.7,25]. This resulted in flight delays at these airports [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e24\u003c/span\u003e]. In addition, thousands of Europe-bound Nigerians were stranded at the Murtala Mohammed International Airport Lagos, as heavy snow storm pounded European airports in December [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e26\u003c/span\u003e]. Preliminary analysis of air traffic at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport Abuja shows August with the highest number of flight cancellations is largely due to thunderstorm frequency [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e27\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e\u003cb\u003e2.3 Aircraft Accidents/Incidents and Causative Factors\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eRecent studies revealed that thunderstorm, wind shear and microburst are hazardous meteorological phenomenon caused by sudden changes in the wind speed and, or direction over a short distance and, or short period, is particularly hazardous when it occurs at lower altitudes [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e25\u003c/span\u003e]. Thunderstorms imposes some dangers in aviation as convective weather systems are usually very severe in nature and pose very serious threat to both life and property especially in aircraft operations [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e26\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e]. They are particularly hazardous to aircraft operations because of the down and updraft and lightning associated with such convective systems. In general, weather is a significant factor affecting safety in the skies as statistics indicate that weather contributes up to 70% of civil aviation accidents worldwide, either as a sole factor or among the causative factors (27].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOn 24 June 1956, a British Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC) four-engine Canadair C-4 Argonaut airliner crashed into a tree on departure from Kano Airport in Nigeria, three crew and 29 passengers were killed, the accident was the result of a loss of height and airspeed caused by the aircraft encountering [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e28\u003c/span\u003e], at approximately 250ft after take-off, an unpredictable thunderstorm induced which gave rise to a sudden reversal of wind direction, heavy rain, and possible downdraft conditions [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e27\u003c/span\u003e] as shown in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlso, Delta Air Lines Flight 191 was a regularly scheduled Delta Air Lines domestic service from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, to Los Angeles with an intermediate stop at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). On August 2, 1985, the Lockheed L-1011 TriStar operating flight 191 encountered a microburst while on approach to land at DFW. The aircraft impacted ground over one mile (1.6km) short of the run runway, struck a car near the airport, collided with two water tanks, and disintegrated, the crash killed 137 people and injured 25 others, the rapid and unexpected formation of a super cell, an extremely violent form of thunderstorm, led to the tragedy [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e29\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e30\u003c/span\u003e] as shown in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgain, Arizona-Ogwu [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e31\u003c/span\u003e] reported that USAir Flight 1016 was a regularly scheduled flight in the Southeastern United States, between Columbia, South Carolina, and Charlotte, North Carolina crash on July 2, 1994, the flight encountered heavy thunderstorms and microburst-induced wind shear while attempting to land, and crashed in to heavy trees and a private residence near the airport, the crash and ensuing fire caused 37 fatalities and seriously injured twenty others [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e31\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn addition, Nigeria Airways Flight 357 was a scheduled domestic passenger flight from Yola in Yola Airport to Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos, stop at Yakubu Gowon Airport in Jos and Kaduna International Airport in Kaduna on 13 November 1995, the Boeing 737-2F9, during its second leg of the flight from Jos to Kaduna, suffered a runway overrun accident at Kaduna Airport, which is thunderstorm induced leading to a fire that destroyed the aircraft [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e32\u003c/span\u003e]. All 14 crew members survived, while 11 of the 124 passengers died (Accident Investigation Bureau [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e33\u003c/span\u003e] as shown in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn order words, Sosoliso Airlines Flight 1145 was a scheduled Nigerian domestics passenger flight from Nigeria`s capital of Abuja to Port Harcourt on 10 December 2005, flight 1145 from Abuja crash-landed at port Harcourt international Airport (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). The aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas DC-9-32 with 110 people on board, slammed into flames. Immediately after the crash, seven survivors were recovered and taken to hospital, but only two survived which is aggravated by thunderstorms and microburst induced wind shear [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e28\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e34\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn light of these, ADC Airlines Flight was a scheduled passenger flight operated by ADC Airlines from Nigeria`s capital of Abuja to Sokoto. (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). On 29 October 2006, the Boeing 737-2B7 crashed onto a corn field shortly after take-off from Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja, killing 96 out of 105 people on board due to heavy thunderstorm [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e32\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e33\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e34\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHence, Dana Air flight 0992 was a scheduled Nigerian domestic passenger flight from Abuja to Lagos, Nigeria on 3 June 2012, the McDonnell Douglas MD-83 aircraft serving the route suffered a dual-engine failure during its approach to Lagos (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). It failed to reach its intended destination and crashed on to buildings killing all 153 people on board and six on the ground with 159 deaths, it remains as the deadliest commercial airliner crash in Nigerian history since Kano air disaster in 1973 which is thunderstorm induced as stated by Okwusogo [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e35\u003c/span\u003e] and Accident Investigation Bureau [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e34\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eReported Air Crashes (Accidents/Incidents) Associated with Thunderstorm Hazards\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"6\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eS/N.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAIRLINE\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDATE\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCAUSE\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFATALITY\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMET. INFORMATION.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBritish Oversees\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAirport\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorp.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24/06/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1956\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e32 Passengers\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrong down burst winds from a thunderstorm.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDelta Airline Flight 191\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2/08/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1985\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(micro\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBurst)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMore than 130\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThunderstorm/rain\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStorm.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNigerian Airways, Port Harcourt.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15/10/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1988\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e132 passengers\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBut no fatality\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRecorded\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHeavy rain\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUSAir Flight 1016\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e02/07/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1994\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37 passengers\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMicroburst induced\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWind shear and spatial disorientation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNigerian Airways Kaduna\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e13/11/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1995\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e29 passengers destroyed\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDry thunderstorm with a 10\u0026ndash;15 knots\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTailwind.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSky Executive\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21/05/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2002\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll passengers on board\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThunderstorm and turbulence in cloud\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBell view\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAirlines, Lagos\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e22/10/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2005\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e111 passengers and crews.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThunderstorm.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSosoliso Airlines\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e10/12/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2005\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e108 passengers\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMicroburst-induced wind shear.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDHL\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e07/09/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2006\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAquaplaning\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNo fatality recorded\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSquall and rain visibility of 600m and wind of 45 knots, sky obscured with CB of several direction.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eADC Airlines, Abuja.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e29/10\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e/2006\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather (micro burst)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e96 passengers and crew\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHeavy thunderstorms.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArik Airlines, Enugu, Flight W3232\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e14/07/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2012\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e153 passengers\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTurbulence/ Heavy Rain.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDana Airlines Lagos.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e03/07/\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2012\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeather\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll passengers on board\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThunderstorm.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003ctfoot\u003e \u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"6\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource: Nigeria Safety Investigation Bureau, Nigeria\u003c/b\u003e, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e36\u003c/span\u003e]\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tfoot\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNearly all parts of the planet are known to have thunderstorms, though they are uncommon in the Polar Regions and seldom in latitudes higher 50\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003e N and 50\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003eS [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e20\u003c/span\u003e]. Therefore, thunderstorms incidences are most common in tropical and temperate regions of the earth. The characteristics are used to categorize or classify them, and these characteristics are heavily influenced by the meteorological environment in which the storms develop [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e37\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eEmpirical gaps of the Aviation Industry amidst thunderstorms on flight terminal\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe growth of aviation industry in Nigeria and the increased adoption of air transportation as one of the best means of transport have been obstructed by various weather hazards. There is a greater need for aviation weather forecasters to deliver quality forecasts. It is therefore necessary to identify the most dangerous and most common weather hazards which are detrimental to the aviation industry so as to enhance the expertise on addressing them. Weli \u0026amp; Ifediba [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e] examined various weather hazards which include thunderstorm, fog, dust haze and line squall that affect flight operation such as flight delays, diversion and cancellation. The study revealed that fog accounted for 13.2% of flight cancellation at the airport and line squall similarly accounted for 10.1% of delays, 8.4% of diversion and 20% of cancellation from 2000\u0026ndash;2009 at the airport in Nigeria.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDespite the contributions of flight terminal in urban development, no real attempt has been made to study thunderstorm in its entire aspect diurnal, seasonal or annual, in a single study. Besides, thunderstorm is of local importance, it is imperative that, a smaller unit like Abuja Airport be study for a long period of 30years (1991\u0026ndash;2020). This study seeks to carry out a detailed analysis of thunderstorm over Abuja Airport because of its importance in Nigeria. This study therefore is an attempt to investigate/examine the influence of thunderstorm on flight operations between 1991\u0026ndash;2020 at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, as weather phenomena are tied to two seasons in Nigeria [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e38\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eThe conceptual scope of the study\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe conceptual scope is centered and limited to turbulent weather event (thunderstorms) on flight operations. The concept covers aspect of thunderstorm which is meteorology that is the formation, structure, and the distribution and frequency of thunderstorm occurrences. Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria. Abuja airport was chosen based on the fact that the facility is influenced by extreme weather conditions due to its location in the tropical region, and is one of the busiest airports in Nigeria. It provides flight services to both domestic and international destinations and it is a public airport operated by the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e39\u003c/span\u003e]. The study area covers (30) thirty years (1991\u0026ndash;2020). These periods were chosen so as to fill in the knowledge gap in the work of Abdulazzez [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e24\u003c/span\u003e] by providing data on thunderstorm occurrences and characteristics and their analysis monthly, yearly and in decades.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSignificance of the Study\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e40\u003c/span\u003e] report released on extremes weather particularly thunderstorms, heavy down pours and hurricanes which are extreme weather disaster affecting flight operations there is the need to ensure safety of flight operations through the provision of accurate weather report from meteorological stations. Hence, accurate weather forecast and its impacts, provide vital information as regards to implication of thunderstorms on flight operations to various agencies of government related to the prevention of thunderstorms hazards to aircraft operations such as ministry of aviation and aerospace development, ministry of transportation, Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN). It also geared toward making a forecast for the impact of thunderstorms on flight operations for the periods of thirty (30) years. This study will complement Nigeria Government`s efforts by providing deeper weather knowledge of its air space for smooth flight operations. This study intends to contribute this needed knowledge in order to solve the problem of flight delays, cancellations and diversions as well as plane crashes due to thunderstorm hazards.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Materials and Methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1 The study area (Nigeria)\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study area covers the confines of Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria. Established and commissioned on September 29, 1982, named after Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s first president, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe. The airport was built in 2000 and opened in 2002 [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e39\u003c/span\u003e]. It consists of international and a domestic terminal, both terminals share the same runway. It is about 49 kilometers south of the city, the airport covers an area of about 1,476km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e and lies between latitude 8\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003e 59\u0026rsquo; 0\u0026rsquo;\u0026rsquo; and 9\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003e 1\u0026rsquo; 30\u0026rsquo;\u0026rsquo;N and longitude 7\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003e 14\u0026rsquo; 30\u0026rsquo;\u0026rsquo;E and 7\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003e 17\u0026rsquo; 0\u0026rsquo;\u0026rsquo;E with altitude of 314.98m. The airport type is public, the elevation (AMSL) is 1, 123ft/342m above mean sea level (AMSL), run way direction is 04/22 and length is 3,610m/11,844ft [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e41\u003c/span\u003e]. The climate of the study area is generally (wet and dry climate) tropical {1]. This includes a warm, humid rainy season and a blistering dry season. The month of April mark out onset of the wet, this runs through to October yearly. The dry season begins from November to March of the following year. Abuja experiences AW or Tropical Climate.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: GIS Lab. Federal University Lokoja, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e42\u003c/span\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2 Research Method\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eA quantitative research designs were employed to determine the monthly and annual thunderstorm occurrences, also to analyze the decadal conditions of thunderstorm occurrences in the study area. Data for this study includes; i). Monthly totals of thunderstorm frequency ranging from 1991\u0026ndash;2020, which were used in determining its trend and daily flight operations data from 1997\u0026ndash;2020; ii) Thunderstorms which define the number of thunder in each month of the specified years and the flight information data for the period of 30 years (1991\u0026ndash;2020). Data was obtained through hourly and daily observations and recordings, which were later compiled and their monthly means computed; iv) Flight information and airport operational data includes (delays, diversion and cancellations) in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja were collected for the period of 23 years (1997\u0026ndash;2020) because no available data on flight operations at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja from 1991, However, available data for this study were from 1997\u0026ndash;2020.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study utilized secondary sources of data on thunderstorm, which were sourced from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and data on flight operations were sourced from Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA). The data on thunderstorms frequency from 1991\u0026ndash;2020 were collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Headquarters in Abuja, while the data on flight cancellations, delays and diversions from 1997\u0026ndash;2020 were collected from the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria. Data presentation includes; Monthly thunderstorm occurrences, annual and decadal thunderstorm occurrences from 1991\u0026ndash;2020, relationship between thunderstorms and years of study. In analyzing the required data, simple statistical technique such as mean and graphs were employed. The statistical analyses employed were descriptive statistics which was used to determine the mean monthly and annual occurrences of thunderstorm and flight operations. Simple linear regression was used to establish the occurrences of thunderstorm values for the study area.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Results and Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe findings of the occurrences of thunderstorm disruptions on air travel in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Nigeria are presented below\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e4.0 Occurrences of thunderstorm at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1 Monthly Thunderstorm occurrences at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja from 1991\u0026ndash;2020\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe monthly occurrences of thunderstorm show that thunder occurrences were lowest in the month of January and December averaging less than 1 per month February and November also have relatively low averages, fewer than 2 occurrences per month. The months with highest number of thunderstorms were July, August, and September, particularly, August had the highest total occurrences over the 30 years with 576, averaging about 19 per year. July and September followed closely with averages of 18 and 18 occurrences respectively. The surge of thunderstorm activity occurred from March, with notable increase in the average monthly occurrences, peaking in August with a gradual decline in activity through to December. Specifically, the thunderstorm activity shows a substantial surge from April to October, with each of these months averaging more than 10 occurrences. Moreover, March and November act as transition months, where the activity begins to increase (March) and then decrease (November) considerably. This result is in agreement with the finding of Anne-Duncan [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e43\u003c/span\u003e] in Port-Harcourt International Airport Omagwa, Rivers State, Nigeria. In the study it was noted that the months of August and September are mostly characterized by thunderstorms and line squalls with the attendant turbulence, micro bursts and lightening.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe mean monthly variability and trend of the occurrence of thunderstorms show a slightly increasing trend over the months in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport throughout the study period. This implies that occurrence of thunderstorms is more prevalence during the middle and ending of the year than the beginning of the year. The result of this study is in agreement with the result of Akanni \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e27\u003c/span\u003e], which showed an increasing trend in the occurrence of thunderstorms from 2004 to 2013 in Lagos State. Meanwhile, the result is at variance with the findings of Enete \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e. [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e] which showed that thunderstorm occurrence was fluctuating without either a decreasing or increasing trend. The difference in the finding of Enete \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e] with this study could be due to the difference in the location and the period of the study.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverall, the results suggest a clear seasonal pattern for thunderstorms occurrence the months from April to October, particularly July to September, can be considered as the 'thunderstorm season' given the high averages of occurrence (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). This could be due to climatic factors typical of the monsoon or summer season in many part of Nigeria and the study area inclusive. Conversely, the winter months (January and December) witness the least thunderstorm activity. The months right before and after the peak season (March and November) also experience relatively low occurrences, indicating the transition between low and high activity periods. This result is in agreement with the finding of Akanni \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e27\u003c/span\u003e], in which it was found out that thunderstorms were most frequent in August and September and least frequent in December and January. This result is also in agreement with the finding of Maxwell [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e44\u003c/span\u003e], in Port-Harcourt International Airport Omagwa, Rivers State, which observed that the monsoon period of the year is the worst for bad weather and flight delays due to the resultant convective weather activities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonthly Occurrence of Thunderstorms in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja from 1991\u0026ndash;2020\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonths\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTotal Occurrences\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMean Occurrences\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e% of Total Occurrences\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eJanuary\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e12\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.360902256\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFebruary\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.667\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.601503759\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarch\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e86\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.867\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.586466165\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eApril\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e207\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.22556391\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMay\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e406\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.533\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.21052632\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eJune\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e440\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.667\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.23308271\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eJuly\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e527\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.567\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.84962406\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAugust\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e576\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.32330827\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeptember\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e545\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.167\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.39097744\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOctober\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e435\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.08270677\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNovember\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e56\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.867\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.684210526\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecember\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e15\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.45112782\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003ctfoot\u003e \u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource: Author`s work, 2023\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tfoot\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2 Annual and Decadal Thunderstorm Occurrences at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, from 1991\u0026ndash;2020\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eAnnual\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe total annual thunderstorm occurrences for 30 years ranged from 88 (2017 and 2018) to 137 (2012). The 1990s showed a relatively stable frequency of thunderstorms, with a slight dip in 1995 but generally hovered around the 110 occurrences (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). There's a noticeable dip in the year 2000 where occurrences dropped to 94, the lowest in the first decade of this study. The mid-2000s, especially from 2005 onwards, showed an increasing trend, peaking in 2007 at 130 occurrences. The highest thunderstorm occurrence of 137 was recorded in 2012. After 2012, there was a decline with the lowest thunderstorm occurrences of 88 in 2017 and 2018. These were the most significant dips during the study period. Towards the end of the period, thunderstorm number of occurrences hovered between 105\u0026ndash;111(2019\u0026ndash;2020). The annual occurrences reveal that 2012 had the highest number of thunderstorm occurrences at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja. The result is at variance with that of Akanni \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e44\u003c/span\u003e] in Murtala Muhammed international Airport, Lagos which showed that 2008 had the highest number of thunderstorm occurrences (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eDecadal\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn terms of the decadal insights, the 1990s showed thunderstorm occurrences were relatively stable in the 1990s with slight fluctuations, which remained predominantly lower than 110. Also the early 2000s saw some decline in the number of thunderstorms, but the latter half of the decade marked an upward trend, reaching a peak in 2007. (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e) In the 2010s, the thunderstorm occurrences were slightly decreasing, reaching a high in 2012, then followed by a downward trend until 2018, and a slight recovery towards the end of the decade. The occurrences of thunderstorms have shown variability over the three decades, with certain years or periods having increased or decreased frequencies. The second decade (2001\u0026ndash;2010) showed a clear increasing trend in thunderstorm occurrences, as indicated by the positive slope and a relatively high R\u0026sup2; value. On the other hand, the first and third Decades (1991\u0026ndash;2000 and 2011\u0026ndash;2020) indicated weak decreasing trends especially in the first Decade (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). This variability might have been influenced by changes in local weather dynamics, or other environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, visibility, wind speed, atmospheric instability, cloud cover, sea level and pressure. The result of this study agrees with that conducted by Akinsanola and Ogunjobi [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e46\u003c/span\u003e] in which long time trends and decadal trends further suggest a sequence of alternately decreasing and increasing decadal thunderstorm frequency in the study area.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSub-period\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe average occurrence showed that the sum of the occurrences in first sub-period (1991\u0026ndash;2005) is 1631, so the average is 108.6 thunderstorms per year. The highest occurrence was revealed in 2005 with 128 thunderstorms, while the lowest occurred in 2000 having 94 thunderstorms. In terms of the characteristics, this sub-period (1991\u0026ndash;2005) starts and ends with numbers around the lower 110s (Fig.\u0026nbsp;4.1). The occurrences fluctuate without any distinct rising or declining trend throughout the sub-periods. This sub-period generally experienced a slight increase in thunderstorm occurrences especially in 1991, 1997 and 2005 particularly stands out as sub-periods with notably high occurrences.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this sub-periods, the total thunderstorm occurrences were 1694, resulting in an average of 113 thunderstorms per year. The maximum peak occurred in the year 2012 with 137 thunderstorms. In 2017 and 2018 both the lowest occurrences in this sub-period showed 88 thunderstorms each (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). These sub-periods are characterized with the highest (2012) and lowest (2017 and 2018) occurrences in the entire 30 years\u0026rsquo; life span. While the sub-periods started with high occurrences, there was a noticeable dip in the latter half of this sub-period, particularly in 2017 and 2018.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe sub-periods (2006\u0026ndash;2020) experienced a slightly higher average of thunderstorm occurrences compared to the sub-periods (1991\u0026ndash;2005). However, the sub-periods (2006\u0026ndash;2020) saw an average closer to that of the sub-periods (1991\u0026ndash;2005). It is worth noting the variability within each sub-period, with particularly high peaks and lows in the sub-periods (2006\u0026ndash;2020). The 2007 with (130) occurrences and 2012 with (137) occurrences stand out with notably high thunderstorm occurrences. While 2017 with (88) and 2018 with (88) experienced the lowest thunderstorm occurrences over the 30-year period (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). This sub-periods (2006\u0026ndash;2020) analysis offers a broad view of the characteristics of thunderstorm occurrences, showing that while there are annual fluctuations, no distinct long-term trend can be deduced from the results. Over the 30-year period, while there have been years of increased thunderstorm activity, there have also been significant lows. The frequencies of thunderstorm showed a consistent upward or downward trend over the entire period but does display periods of increase and decrease which can be deduced from the result. The result showed clear inter-annual variability without any consistent upward or downward trend throughout the entire 30-year periods. Also this result is at variance with the findings of Enete \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e, (2015) in Port-Harcourt International Airport Omagwa, Rivers State, which showed that thunderstorm occurrence was fluctuating without either a decreasing or increasing trend. This difference in result of Enete \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e, [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e] with this study could be due to the difference in the location and the period of the study. The finding is in agreement with the result of Maxwell [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e44\u003c/span\u003e], which observed that the monsoon period of the year is the worst for bad weather delays due to resultant convective weather activities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3 Relationship between thunderstorms and years of study\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe changes in the (number of years) (x) are associated with changes in the (thunderstorm occurrences) (y). The negative slope of -0.0643 indicates that as the independent variable (x) increases by one unit, the number of thunderstorm occurrences (y) decreases by approximately 0.0643 units. In other words, there is a negative relationship between the number of year (x) and the number of annual thunderstorm occurrences (y), suggesting that as the value of x increases, thunderstorm occurrences (y) tend to decrease. The y-intercept is the value of y when x is equal to 0. In this case, when (x) is zero, the number of thunderstorm occurrences (y) is expected to be approximately 240. This intercept represents the estimated baseline number of thunderstorm occurrences when the R-squared value is 0.0023, it indicates that the number of year (x) included in the regression equation explain only a very small proportion of the variance in the thunderstorm occurrences but with the understanding that the model explains very little of the variation in thunderstorm occurrences. The negative slope of -0.0643 suggests that, for each unit increase in the number of year (x), the number of annual thunderstorm occurrences (y) is expected to decrease by approximately 0.0643 units. (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHowever, in this case, the model has a very weak explanatory power, so the relationship may not be practically significant despite being statistically significant the y-intercept represents the estimated baseline number of annual thunderstorm occurrences when the number of year (x) is zero, which is approximately 240. However, with an R-squared of 0.0023, it's important to understand that the model does not capture much of the variability in annual thunderstorm occurrences.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author`s work 2024\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe R-square suggests that there are other factors or variables such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, visibility, wind speed, atmospheric instability, cloud cover, sea level and pressure not included in the model that influence annual thunderstorm occurrences to a much greater extent.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e In such cases, the predictive power of the model is quite limited. This finding is in agreement with the work of Enete et \u003cem\u003eal\u003c/em\u003e [7] which reported that there is a negative relationship between the number of year and the number of annual thunderstorm occurrences, but that the relationship was insignificant due to weather modification. It can be concluded that annual thunderstorm occurrences are not statistically significant, which agrees with the findings of Wellis and Emenike [16] which shows that there is no statistically significant relationship between the number of year and number of thunderstorm occurrences at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5 Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe result of the study showed that thunderstorm occurrences from 1991 to 2020 were lowest in the years 2000 and 2001 with 94, and 99 total occurrences, respectively while the monthly occurrences were highest in August (576) and lowest in January (12). Thunderstorm characteristics showed consistent frequencies in the 1990s, a growth trend in the 2000s, and a period of highs and lows in the 2010s, culminating in a moderate stabilization by the decade's end. The contributing effect of thunderstorm occurrences on flight operations was not significant (p-value\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;0.05). The occurrences of thunderstorms in the next 30 years showed a high range of stability across the years (2021\u0026ndash;2050).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on the observations and conclusions drawn from the study, the following recommendations for further studies are proposed: To better understand the direct and indirect impacts of thunderstorms on flight operations, future studies should integrate additional data variables such as wind speed, rainfall, and other climatic parameters. This would provide a more holistic understanding of weather's impact on aviation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003col style=\"list-style-type:lower-roman;\"\u003e\u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt would be beneficial to study and evaluate the current operational strategies of the airport, specifically during thunderstorm occurrences. Understanding the immediate responses, safety protocols, and backup plans in place can provide insights into real-world practices against theoretical predictions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eA study focusing on the economic implications of flight delays, cancellations, and diversions due to thunderstorms would be beneficial. This would shed light on the financial strain or savings these weather occurrences might be causing the aviation industry.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eConsidering the possibility of climate change effects on weather patterns, a longer-term study extending beyond 50 years may provide insights into more extended patterns and their impacts on aviation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003c/ol\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIdoko, Friday Noah -IFN, Ishaya Sunday -IS, Okosun Senator Endurance-OSE, Ehigiator Irughe Raphael-EIR, Jegede Joy Anwuli-JJA, Daniel Adamu-DA, Kingsley Uchenna Kanu-KUK, Aladelokun Olawole Adeniji \u0026ndash;AOA, Ipinmoroti Samuel Adejoro-ISA, David Omanayi Johnson-DOJ (Data Design IFN, IS, OSE, data collection: IFN, OSE, EIR, JJA, result interpretation, DA, IFN, OSE, KUK, Manuscript preparation: IFN, AOA, ISA, DOJ)\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthics Declaration\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study relied exclusively on secondary, aggregated, and non-identifiable data obtained from publicly available or institutional sources, including meteorological records and flight-operation summaries. No human participants were involved, and no personal, medical, or sensitive individual-level data were collected, accessed, or analyzed. Consequently, ethical approval from an institutional review board was not required for this study.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOkosun, S. E., Fasakin, J. O., Basorun, J. O., Olamiju, I. O., \u0026amp; Aluko, E. A. (2021). An Appraisal of Electric Energy Supply Security in Residential Estates of Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. In J. N. Mojekwu, W. Thwala, C. Aigbavboa, L. Atepor, \u0026amp; S. Sackey (Eds.), \u003cem\u003eSustainable Education and Development\u003c/em\u003e (pp. 466\u0026ndash;479). 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Empirical Analysis of Extreme Weather Conditions and Aviation Safety in Nigeria. \u003cem\u003eEthiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, 9(6), 680\u0026ndash;690. (2016)\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAkinsala, I., \u0026amp; Ogunjobi, A. (2014). Impact of Thunderstorms on Flight Operations.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Air travel, Aviation industry, Flight Operations, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Thunderstones, Weather events","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8503300/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8503300/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDespite significant advancements in technology, the aviation industry faces high rates of climate related events. Hence, this study aims to evaluates the impact of thunderstorm on flight operations at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja Nigeria from 1991\u0026ndash;2020. The study employed secondary data of thunderstorm occurrences from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), and flight operations data from Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) both at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja. Descriptive statistics and Pearson\u0026rsquo;s Product Moment Correlation were employed for the study. Findings derived from the study revealed that thunderstorms occurred in rainy season months with August registering the highest mean occurrence at 19 accounting for 17.32% of the total. July and September closely followed, with mean occurrences of 18 and 19 respectively. The lowest months were January and December with mean occurrences of just 0.4 and 0.5 respectively. The Monthly frequencies of thunderstorm occurrences and flight operations, diversions recorded a total number of 3648 (29.6%) with the highest number of diversions in August (481), The study recommends future studies that would integrate additional data variables such as wind speed, rainfall, and other climatic parameters.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Air travel as Catalysts for Urban Development: Examining Thunderstorm Occurrence on Flight Operations in Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Nigeria","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-07 09:33:54","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8503300/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"492705c7-4f90-4334-a07b-2d26e93e7e37","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 7th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-19T00:39:07+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-07 09:33:54","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8503300","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8503300","identity":"rs-8503300","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}