Building Resilience with Adaptive Social Protection for Natural Disaster Mitigation in Indonesia: Systematic Literature Review with Bibliometrics

Building Resilience with Adaptive Social Protection for Natural Disaster Mitigation in Indonesia: Systematic Literature Review with Bibliometrics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Building Resilience with Adaptive Social Protection for Natural Disaster Mitigation in Indonesia: Systematic Literature Review with Bibliometrics Roswita Nilakurnia, Raldi Hendro Koestoer This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5751971/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Indonesia’s distinct geographical and geological landscape makes it highly vulnerable to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, as it sits at the convergence of three major tectonic plates. This persistent exposure to natural hazards amplifies risks to household welfare, posing significant challenges to Indonesia’s long-term poverty reduction goals. The absence of a dedicated disaster-responsive social protection policy raises substantial concerns regarding the country’s capacity to address these vulnerabilities. This study aims to evaluate the effects of natural disaster risks on poverty and examines disaster-focused social protection frameworks from other nations. The goal is to guide the creation of an adaptive social protection model tailored to Indonesia’s unique disaster risks. Using quantitative and qualitative approaches, the research conducts a bibliometric analysis of existing literature on natural disasters, poverty, and social protection, tracing the development of adaptive social protection concepts. The findings underscore the urgent need for a robust, adaptive social protection framework to confront Indonesia’s natural disaster challenges. This framework would adopt a multi-stakeholder approach, fostering collaboration among government entities, the private sector, and communities to boost resilience, improve preparedness, and strengthen risk mitigation efforts. Adaptive Social Protection Bibliometric Analysis Disaster Risk Management Natural Disaster Risk Mitigation Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 1 Introduction Indonesia's geographical and geological uniqueness places it at significant risk of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes. The nation lies at the junction of the Indo-Australian, Eurasian, and Pacific tectonic plates, whose ongoing movement triggers frequent seismic disturbances. (Wanto et al., 2023 ). Indonesia's location along the Pacific Ring of Fire – a chain of undersea volcanic paths shaped like a horseshoe and stretching 40,250 km – heightens its exposure to seismic events. This positioning increases the likelihood of tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, potentially leading to volcanic eruptions, landslides, and earthquakes (Fig. 1 ). Indonesia, home to 129 active volcanoes, is the second most seismically active country in the world, following Japan. (Basid et al., 2021 ). Natural disasters, including those driven by climate change, significantly affect environmental sustainability, economic stability, and public health in affected areas. The risks are heightened for vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, low-income populations, and marginalized communities. (Davies et al., 2008 ). This situation could push approximately 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 (Hallegatte, 2016 & Jafino et al., 2020 ). In Indonesia, household welfare faces growing risks due to the rising frequency of natural disasters. Among these, earthquakes have caused the most severe damage to households, while droughts, forest fires, floods, and other disasters have had comparatively milder impacts. According to data from the Indonesia National Board for Disaster Management, the country has seen a sharp rise in natural disasters over the past decade, with 36,304 incidents recorded – more than 20,000 of which occurred in the last five years. Although seismic activity accounts for only 22% of these disasters, it is responsible for at least 50% of the social and economic costs, including fatalities, financial losses from housing damage, and disruptions to public infrastructure. Earthquakes in Indonesia lower the likelihood of households escaping poverty by five percentage points, particularly affecting rural areas. (Dartanto, 2022 ). In China, natural disasters have exacerbated income inequality, disproportionately affecting poorer households, who face greater vulnerability and substantial income losses compared to middle- and upper-income groups. (Wang & Zhao, 2023 ). Mitigation policies, disaster management, and economic recovery plans are crucial for reducing the impact of natural disasters and lowering poverty risks. The Indonesia National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) is key in disaster response, managing policies, coordinating evacuations, and implementing disaster management through an organized, integrated, and comprehensive framework (UU 24/Indonesia Disaster Management, 2007). However, there is still no formal protection policy assigning a specific government body to address income vulnerability risks in the aftermath of disasters. With Indonesia’s long-term poverty alleviation target for 2025 to 2045 (UU 59 2024 RPJPN, 2024), the country’s location along the Ring of Fire and its high risk of natural disasters raises concerns about vulnerability and poverty. The absence of a dedicated social protection scheme for disaster-related risks highlights a significant gap. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of natural disaster risks on poverty and examine disaster-related social security programs from other countries. The findings are intended to serve as a foundation for developing an appropriate social protection program to address natural disasters in Indonesia. 2 Methodology This research employed quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze previous studies on natural disasters, their impact on poverty, and social insurance schemes, including adaptive social protection. The quantitative approach involved bibliometric analysis, which examines and measures published literature on specific topics, typically in academic and scientific contexts. Bibliometric analysis offers statistical insights into publications, identifying trends, impacts, and the influence of research over time. This method helps synthesize and summarize accumulated scientific knowledge, capturing the evolutionary developments within research fields by thoroughly analyzing large volumes of unstructured data (Donthu et al., 2021 ). The qualitative approach involves reviewing a range of literature on the relevant topic. This method thoroughly examines existing research and publications to summarize, analyze, and synthesize past findings, clearly understanding the current state of knowledge. A bibliometric analysis was performed using an online search of the Scopus publications database, applying keyword combinations of “social insurance” and “natural disasters.” Due to the limited number of articles from 2019 to 2024, the search period was extended, covering publications from 1988 to 2024. A selection process was then carried out to identify relevant articles based on specific criteria: (i) concentrate the study in five areas, which are social science, environmental science, economics, econometrics and finance, business, management and accounting, and multidisciplinary; (ii) consider only the final stage publication; and (iii) limit to English language article publication. Therefore, we found 176 publications of the previous studies from 1988 to 2024. These articles were converted to RIS format files and inputted in bibliometric analysis using the VOSviewer 1.6.20 version application. Besides VOSviewer analytical tools, we also utilized the Scopus’ analyze results feature on the Scopus database website. For the qualitative review, we analyzed the top twenty relevant studies selected from 176 publications identified through the bibliometric analysis. Additionally, we searched online for further publications outside the Scopus database on social protection against natural disaster risks to explore the topic more comprehensively. The collected literature was organized based on key issues and summarized to highlight the most relevant studies related to the research topic (Martin et al., 2020 ). 3 Result and Analysis 3.1 Bibliometric Analysis The bibliometric analysis, generated using VOSviewer and Scopus analytical tools, provided the following visualization. Most studies focused on natural disasters, disaster management, insurance, and insurance systems (see Fig. 2 ). Research on natural disasters primarily addressed earthquakes, risk management, economic and social impacts, and social insurance. Disaster management studies explored earthquake-related issues, climate change, vulnerability, catastrophic events, and governance. In contrast, insurance and insurance systems studies are mainly connected to floods, resilience, and mitigation efforts. Research on social insurance and natural disasters began in 2006 and gained traction in the 2000s, particularly after 2017 (Fig. 3 ). As shown in Fig. 3 , studies on earthquake-related disasters became more prominent after 2016. However, as indicated in Fig. 2 , relatively few studies directly link social insurance with natural disasters, and the connection between these two topics appears limited. Notably, research in this area has been carried out by scholars affiliated with leading universities in the US, UK, and China. Further analysis revealed that four interconnected research clusters emerged regardless of the study period, as illustrated in Fig. 5 through the VOSviewer density visualization. The cluster focusing on natural disasters is highlighted in green. It is associated with earthquakes, economic and social impacts, public health, disaster prevention, risk management, social support, and social and health insurance. These interconnected themes represent the core issues explored in studies on natural disasters. The red cluster represents insurance-related topics, including insurance systems, mitigation, flooding, flood insurance, resilience, and climate change adaptation. This suggests that previous studies focused on insurance systems linked to flooding and climate change, emphasizing resilience. The yellow cluster, centered on disaster management, connects to risk assessment, hazard assessment, vulnerability, catastrophic events, climate change, and earthquakes. Although these topics have gained prominence recently, they have been studied for years. The blue cluster highlights risk reduction, poverty, financial management, public policy on environmental and public issues, and economic and sustainable development. These areas have attracted researchers' attention since the early 2010s, particularly around 2014 (Fig. 4 ). 3.2 Literature Review A review of the current literature on social insurance and natural disaster mitigation reveals a significant gap in comprehensive studies exploring the specific forms of social insurance systems implemented or examining the vulnerability and risk posed by natural disasters. While extensive research exists on general social protection frameworks and their immediate responses to disasters, as highlighted by the research clusters, few studies focus on the long-term economic benefits and challenges of social insurance systems designed to address recurring natural disasters. Using the Scopus database for our bibliometric analysis, we selected the top twenty studies emphasizing the relationship between social insurance, social protection, and disaster vulnerability impacts. Additionally, we conducted an online search for relevant studies to gain deeper insights into the role of public insurance systems in disaster recovery management protocols. Natural disasters significantly affect societal vulnerability, which reflects how susceptible communities are to harm from such events. This complex relationship involves both immediate impacts and long-term consequences, engaging multiple stakeholders. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2006 in the US spurred interest in developing a comprehensive disaster insurance program as an alternative to existing water and earthquake damage coverage. The need for a separate policy arose to create layers of protection based on the extent of damage. The study recommended greater involvement from the private insurance sector to cover mid-level losses following initial losses borne by policyholders. At the same time, the federal government would handle catastrophic losses through a pre-funding mechanism (Kunreuther, 2006 ). A well-structured private-public partnership and vigorous regulatory enforcement are essential to manage potential future losses. The funding mechanism must also be carefully designed, considering whether contributions should be voluntary or mandatory, with a focus on ensuring coverage for low-income households in high-risk areas. Not all disasters can be solely attributed to natural environmental forces or justified as unavoidable events. In many instances, the inability of societal systems to effectively implement disaster management and design protective measures to minimize and prevent losses plays a significant role and cannot be overlooked. (Hewitt, 2013 ). Comprehensive disaster management continues to be a crucial element in disaster risk prevention policies. Analyzing past disasters can be a foundation for developing effective disaster management strategies and precautionary policy frameworks. As observed in Nigeria, natural disasters negatively impact households' livelihoods, assets, and overall well-being (Adeagbo et al., 2016 ). The study highlighted floods as the most frequent natural disaster in the country. In addition to extensive damage to homes, assets, and public schools, communities experienced serious health-related consequences. Catastrophic events like earthquakes can have a particularly severe effect on older populations, leading to health issues and psychological trauma, which may increase the risk of dementia (Chiba et al., 2024 ). The cost of disaster recovery is higher in rural areas despite being home to lower-income households (Adeagbo et al., 2016 ). Rural regions, often dependent on agriculture, are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. The combination of natural disasters and climate risks highlights the need for agricultural innovation and insurance systems to strengthen resilience in the agricultural sector (Kaur et al., 2023 ). Given the vulnerable risks of natural disasters, recommendations extracted from the studies reviewed are summarized as follows: (i) Design the disaster preventive management by reinforcing related regulations for preparedness; (ii) Design the protection for the household class that is vulnerable to the disaster impact to ensure speedy recovery for all categories of people; (iii) Develop public-private insurance scheme for disaster damage coverage; (iv) Optimize technological use on database of previous disaster event and seismic risk hotspots as precautionary approach and warning mechanism (Ahmed et al., 2024 ); (v) provide incentives for private insurance participation in natural disaster protection coverage, particularly in high-risk sectors like agriculture (Lin & Wang, 2024 ). Government policy is expected to be key in coordinating disaster management, particularly in supporting economic recovery for impoverished people. Private insurance alone is often insufficient to cover disaster-related damages, as risk assessments influence premium costs, making protection unaffordable for many. Not everyone can secure insurance against natural disaster risks. However, in cases like flooding, the frequency of such events can motivate some households to purchase affordable insurance (Hikmah, 2022). As a result, a government-supported social protection program with extended coverage for natural disasters is recommended as an alternative solution (Wickramasinghe, 2012 ). Many Latin American countries have established legal disaster fund schemes to facilitate disaster recovery. These funds are sourced from initial capital defined by law, annual government contributions, donations, and financial returns from bank deposits (Szlafsztein, 2020 ). The primary goal is to secure resources for post-disaster recovery. However, due to the unpredictable nature of natural disasters, public financial resources for prevention and preparedness remain limited. As a result, preventive measures should rely on alternative financial mechanisms. Additionally, the growing risks associated with climate change necessitate dedicated preparedness strategies. In China, increasing awareness and voluntary participation in agricultural insurance have significantly strengthened the economic resilience of farmers, particularly those growing cash crops, against natural disasters (Xie et al., 2024 ). However, a joint public-private insurance scheme is recommended for risks like earthquakes and floods. Private insurers often set high premiums for earthquake coverage, making it difficult for individuals to afford policies (Perazzini et al., 2024 ). The study concluded that jointly managing these risks can reduce public capital expenditures. Without sufficient insurance coverage, losses from disasters often go uncompensated, disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations who depend on limited government aid or support from NGOs. In developing countries, where disasters can severely affect communities and overwhelm government resources, public-private insurance partnerships are crucial for building resilience and establishing sustainable recovery systems for at-risk populations (Kousky et al., 2021 ). Alternatively, private insurers can provide supplementary, voluntary coverage through premium-based plans to address social risks not covered by state-managed programs (Dostal & Naskoshi, 2023 ). Private insurance plays a vital role in managing losses from extreme weather events and disasters, underscoring individuals, insurers, and governments' unique challenges when dealing with low-probability, high-impact risks. In developed countries, where such catastrophic events are infrequent, public-private partnerships help manage high-consequence risks and promote preventive actions. These partnerships protect against severe losses and mitigate risk by structuring insurance premiums around specific natural hazards. For example, residents and businesses in higher-risk areas pay higher premiums, while those in lower-risk zones pay less, incentivizing investments in loss prevention to secure reduced premiums (Kunreuther & Lyster, 2016 ). A public-private partnership insurance scheme can be developed to address natural disasters through pre-, during, and post-event strategies to mitigate and manage crises (Johannsdottir & Wallace, 2022 ). The growing scale of disaster-related issues, including climate change, often exceeds the capacity of any single stakeholder, as economic, social, and environmental conditions vary at local, national, and regional levels. Johannsdottir and Wallace ( 2022 ) emphasize the need for further research on collaborative coordination among stakeholders to manage disaster impacts effectively. This aligns with earlier studies advocating for multidisciplinary approaches in disaster management, focusing on resilience, disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and adaptive risk governance. The concept of adaptive and integrated disaster resilience (AIDR) highlights the importance of nations and communities strengthening resilience in a coordinated way, enhancing system adaptability (Djalante et al., 2013 ) (Fig. 6 ). Effective implementation of this concept depends on sufficient financial resources, which community-level microfinance initiatives or diverse public-private insurance instruments can facilitate. Various models exist for determining social insurance premiums for natural disasters. Social protection is crucial in countries with high disaster risk to mitigate the widespread socio-economic damage affecting infrastructure, public services, agriculture, and communities. To reduce financial strain, disaster risk financing through insurance is recommended. This model analyzes aggregated data, assessing the frequency of disasters and the financial losses incurred. The government pays the premium by applying the Black-Scholes method, commonly used in financial modeling and numerical simulations, which are conducted to calculate an optimal risk-sharing cost. This approach helps governments establish a more sustainable financial strategy for disaster resilience by aligning premiums with actual risk levels (Kalfin et al., 2020 ). Another scenario is using the potential of blockchain technology to enhance disaster risk insurance within the pre-disaster risk reduction strategies framework. By facilitating digital insurance contracts, blockchain offers increased efficiency, transparency, and dependability in catastrophe insurance through smart contracting, addressing existing gaps in comprehensive risk management for community resilience. It proposes a multidisciplinary methodology encompassing law, environmental engineering, insurance, and information technology to develop a blockchain-based digital insurance contract to optimize the influence of risk insurance on resilience planning. Integrating blockchain provides a unified system for robust risk data collection, reinforces policyholder trust, and strengthens pre-disaster mitigation strategies (Pagano et al., 2019 ). Recovering from natural disasters requires a multifaceted approach to maintain household economic stability and mitigate increased poverty risk. An adaptive protection scheme is essential to minimize losses, reduce vulnerability, and address gaps in existing protections. Until the 1980s, social protection was primarily centered around employment-related social insurance, guided by the International Labour Organization (ILO) Convention 102 of 1952 (The International Labour Organisation, 2019 ). This framework targeted formally employed workers who contributed to insurance and pension funds to safeguard against income shocks caused by job loss, workplace accidents, or retirement. Such programs enhance stability by easing financial burdens on individuals and families, promoting resilience and overall well-being (Schoukens et al., 2018 ). However, this approach excluded informal sector workers and self-employed individuals, leaving them without adequate protection. Over the past two decades, social protection has evolved from its initial role as a 'social safety net' for economic shocks to a core development agenda element (Devereux & Solórzano, 2016 ). The function of social security, often referred to as social protection, has continued to grow alongside national policy advancements. Davies et al. ( 2008 ) introduced the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP), which aims to integrate social protection, disaster risk reduction, and climate change adaptation into a cohesive framework. This integrated approach seeks to reduce vulnerability by leveraging these three components' connections. Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) is an emerging approach designed to address the impact of natural disasters and climate change on social protection systems. ASP enhances the resilience of poor and vulnerable households by improving their capacity to anticipate, respond to, and adapt to shocks, thereby protecting their well-being and preventing them from falling into or remaining in poverty. Bowen et al. (2020) highlight that ASP promotes government-led investments to strengthen household resilience at all shock stages— pre- and post-event—by utilizing social protection programs specifically designed to support at-risk communities. Adaptive Social Protection within a framework is defined based on four foundational pillars: (1) Programs, which focus on designing social safety net initiatives that can enhance resilience; (2) Data and Information, which serve as the basis for identifying and guiding the design and implementation of these programs; (3) Finance, which delineates the role of financial risk management in enabling Adaptive Social Protection to respond effectively to shocks; and (4) Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships, which describe the various multi- sectoral institutional partnerships, both within government ministries and with non-governmental partners, necessary to implement this approach effectively (Bowen et al., 2020). Indonesia's current Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) model is tailored as social assistance aimed at reducing poverty and safeguarding vulnerable populations by protecting livelihood assets and supporting the income and consumption of low-income households. The Family Hope Program (PKH), conditional cash transfers, Food Cards, and the Smart Indonesia Program (PIP) have been implemented to address specific needs and circumstances. They are funded through annual government budget allocations. However, challenges persist in executing these social assistance initiatives due to complex distribution systems and the need to align social protection with the appropriate institutional framework. Indonesia faces a dilemma between adopting a "layered" or "nested" approach to social protection. Ultimately, the country’s social protection efforts still grapple with balancing efficiency and equity in the fight against poverty (McCarthy & Sumarto, 2018 ). Indonesia's social protection policy development continues to face considerable challenges in closing gaps within the existing framework. Current policies often fail to account for the effects of natural disasters and climate change on poverty levels, despite Indonesia being one of the most disaster-prone countries, facing risks from earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, fires, and extreme climate events (World Bank Group & ADB, 2021). As a result, the Indonesian government must take proactive steps to reassess and adapt the social protection system to better respond to and mitigate the negative impacts of natural disasters, notably for unavoidable events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and extreme climate change. The adaptive social protection approach has primarily emphasized social assistance or non-contributory programs as mitigation strategies rather than focusing on social security protection. While collaboration between the state and private insurance sectors could strengthen Indonesia’s social protection system, private insurers typically provide supplementary coverage for risks not addressed by state programs, with participation being voluntary through premium-based plans (Ikhsan Modjo, 2017 ). As a result, social insurance schemes continue to be viewed as a crucial element of a comprehensive risk management strategy, helping to close protection gaps, especially for the middle- and lower-income workforce (Williams et al., 2023 ). 4 Conclusions Positioned along the Ring of Fire, Indonesia faces significant vulnerability to seismic activity, heightening the risk of earthquakes and tsunamis. This underscores the urgent need for an adaptive and comprehensive social protection framework tailored to the country’s disaster risks. However, the existing social protection system reveals notable gaps in its capacity to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters, necessitating a strategic shift toward resilience-building through collaborative initiatives. Research highlights that such a framework would greatly benefit from the engagement of government, private sectors, and local communities, fostering a multi-stakeholder approach to enhance preparedness and risk reduction. Additionally, the limited financial resources of many Indonesians hinder their ability to participate in contributory social insurance schemes, reinforcing the need for government subsidies to support contributions. A government-backed social protection system would help ensure fair access to safety nets, particularly for vulnerable groups disproportionately affected by disaster-related economic shocks. As part of the National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN), Indonesia should prioritize developing a transparent, accountable, and flexible social assistance model. Drawing lessons from countries with established adaptive social protection frameworks can offer valuable guidance, enabling Indonesia to build a more resilient and responsive social protection system. Through these measures, Indonesia can better safeguard its population, mitigate poverty driven by disasters, and cultivate a society resilient to future challenges. Declarations Author Contribution This paper is the result of close collaboration, with each author playing a vital role in shaping the study and bringing it to completion.Concept and Design: Author 1 and Author 2 led the way in shaping the research idea and designing the overall structure of the study. Their input was crucial in defining the focus and objectives.Literature Review and Analysis: Author 1 took the lead on conducting the literature review and bibliometric analysis, diving deep into existing work on natural disasters, poverty, and social protection.Data and Insights: Author 1 handled data collection and analysis, ensuring the research was grounded in strong, relevant evidence. Their insights helped guide key conclusions.Writing and Drafting: Author 1 and Author 2 were responsible for drafting the manuscript, with contributions and input from all authors at each stage.Revisions and Refinement: Author 2 carefully reviewed and refined the text, making sure the arguments were clear and aligned with the study’s goals.Supervision and Final Review: Author 2 oversaw the project from start to finish, ensuring the paper met high academic standards and was ready for submission. 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The World Bank Xie S, Zhang J, Li X, Xia X, Chen Z (2024) The effect of agricultural insurance participation on rural households’ economic resilience to natural disasters: Evidence from China. J Clean Prod 434(September):140123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140123 Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5751971","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":397224367,"identity":"d0b4d2df-a39f-4245-ae2d-52b5036b734e","order_by":0,"name":"Roswita Nilakurnia","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABD0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCBBDBzNzA2ACk2RiYD0BFGAxwawGpYGaEaWFLIKwFogKqhYGBB64Sqxbz9vZnEg9/2DGYszM2fpzZdi+Pj/3MN4kHDHbyDOzMG7BpkTlzxkwiISGZwbKZsVlyY1txMRtP7jaJBIZkwwZmtgJsWiQkcthuJCQAnX2YsUHyYVtCYhsDWAszEPFgdZiERPozoJZ6kJbmn2At/G+eAbXU49GSYAbUchikpQ3oMKAWoL1ALYdxa+E5Y/4jIe04D0iL5YxzIC3PjC0SDI4btuHyC3v7Y8MfNtVyBucPH77ZU5aQOL8/+eHNHxXV8vz8h7GGGAzwoPENQHE6CkbBKBgFo4BcAABQLVfTCHUXGQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Indonesia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Roswita","middleName":"","lastName":"Nilakurnia","suffix":""},{"id":397224368,"identity":"9871370b-0c26-4f51-b89c-80b9cfea5839","order_by":1,"name":"Raldi Hendro Koestoer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Indonesia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Raldi","middleName":"Hendro","lastName":"Koestoer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-02 13:08:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5751971/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5751971/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":73140975,"identity":"c9b944d3-989b-4015-ad21-e6d21bba0638","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 06:54:21","extension":"jpeg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":107413,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eRing of Fire Map\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(https://www.britannica.com/place/Ring-of-Fire)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/a0ccabf7c7323e42060f6539.jpeg"},{"id":73140977,"identity":"88a47703-33ce-41e5-8e8c-a885ac6fb4e9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 06:54:21","extension":"jpeg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":128643,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eA cluster of research related to Social Insurance and Natural Disaster\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/18ec0db5ca86842d9cb2963f.jpeg"},{"id":73141204,"identity":"f29d4c81-e2ee-403b-ad45-75f996921c60","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 07:02:21","extension":"jpeg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":60404,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eResearch publication andaffiliation\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image3.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/dbb29bbae56899f6f77f5cb2.jpeg"},{"id":73140983,"identity":"cebc3518-6c36-4acd-be16-caddc34cc4db","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 06:54:22","extension":"jpeg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":145485,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eResearch study concentration by year\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image4.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/a1b78bf1af2fc715d56df3b3.jpeg"},{"id":73141209,"identity":"2ba77f29-a2d9-4bc7-a0f3-b037f8036170","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 07:02:22","extension":"jpeg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":77184,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe density visualization of the research cluster\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image5.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/8243017283ab798306c95328.jpeg"},{"id":73142915,"identity":"4a8cb40a-5f9c-42ce-8fcd-c031049acd97","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 07:10:22","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":332570,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAdaptive and integrated disaster resilience (AIDR) framework\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(Djalante et al., 2013)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/2979f829a4d8f477bf2a10b8.png"},{"id":73142914,"identity":"124b2873-7814-41e4-815e-3b122f3be603","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 07:10:22","extension":"jpeg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":23727,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eA Combined Approach to Adaptive Social Protection adapted.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(Davies et al., 2008)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image7.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/091801fd03a25d51397b1578.jpeg"},{"id":73140986,"identity":"c76c63ab-c435-4a99-8f6b-0dca8eb815cf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 06:54:22","extension":"jpeg","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":35009,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFramework of Adaptive Social Protection\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(Bowen et al., 2020)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image8.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/0af0f8a46f74ac81f324f9c9.jpeg"},{"id":73142922,"identity":"39117a4f-11a7-4219-af74-d99c46d3cb7b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-07 07:10:26","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1166009,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5751971/v1/5cfd1091-7869-4d2a-81a6-08e93243f563.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Building Resilience with Adaptive Social Protection for Natural Disaster Mitigation in Indonesia: Systematic Literature Review with Bibliometrics","fulltext":[{"header":"1 Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eIndonesia's geographical and geological uniqueness places it at significant risk of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes. The nation lies at the junction of the Indo-Australian, Eurasian, and Pacific tectonic plates, whose ongoing movement triggers frequent seismic disturbances. (Wanto et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Indonesia's location along the Pacific Ring of Fire \u0026ndash; a chain of undersea volcanic paths shaped like a horseshoe and stretching 40,250 km \u0026ndash; heightens its exposure to seismic events. This positioning increases the likelihood of tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, potentially leading to volcanic eruptions, landslides, and earthquakes (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Indonesia, home to 129 active volcanoes, is the second most seismically active country in the world, following Japan. (Basid et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNatural disasters, including those driven by climate change, significantly affect environmental sustainability, economic stability, and public health in affected areas. The risks are heightened for vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, low-income populations, and marginalized communities. (Davies et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e). This situation could push approximately 100\u0026nbsp;million people into extreme poverty by 2030 (Hallegatte, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e \u0026amp; Jafino et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Indonesia, household welfare faces growing risks due to the rising frequency of natural disasters. Among these, earthquakes have caused the most severe damage to households, while droughts, forest fires, floods, and other disasters have had comparatively milder impacts. According to data from the Indonesia National Board for Disaster Management, the country has seen a sharp rise in natural disasters over the past decade, with 36,304 incidents recorded \u0026ndash; more than 20,000 of which occurred in the last five years. Although seismic activity accounts for only 22% of these disasters, it is responsible for at least 50% of the social and economic costs, including fatalities, financial losses from housing damage, and disruptions to public infrastructure. Earthquakes in Indonesia lower the likelihood of households escaping poverty by five percentage points, particularly affecting rural areas. (Dartanto, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). In China, natural disasters have exacerbated income inequality, disproportionately affecting poorer households, who face greater vulnerability and substantial income losses compared to middle- and upper-income groups. (Wang \u0026amp; Zhao, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMitigation policies, disaster management, and economic recovery plans are crucial for reducing the impact of natural disasters and lowering poverty risks. The Indonesia National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) is key in disaster response, managing policies, coordinating evacuations, and implementing disaster management through an organized, integrated, and comprehensive framework (UU 24/Indonesia Disaster Management, 2007). However, there is still no formal protection policy assigning a specific government body to address income vulnerability risks in the aftermath of disasters.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith Indonesia\u0026rsquo;s long-term poverty alleviation target for 2025 to 2045 (UU 59 2024 RPJPN, 2024), the country\u0026rsquo;s location along the Ring of Fire and its high risk of natural disasters raises concerns about vulnerability and poverty. The absence of a dedicated social protection scheme for disaster-related risks highlights a significant gap. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of natural disaster risks on poverty and examine disaster-related social security programs from other countries. The findings are intended to serve as a foundation for developing an appropriate social protection program to address natural disasters in Indonesia.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2 Methodology","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis research employed quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze previous studies on natural disasters, their impact on poverty, and social insurance schemes, including adaptive social protection. The quantitative approach involved bibliometric analysis, which examines and measures published literature on specific topics, typically in academic and scientific contexts. Bibliometric analysis offers statistical insights into publications, identifying trends, impacts, and the influence of research over time. This method helps synthesize and summarize accumulated scientific knowledge, capturing the evolutionary developments within research fields by thoroughly analyzing large volumes of unstructured data (Donthu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). The qualitative approach involves reviewing a range of literature on the relevant topic. This method thoroughly examines existing research and publications to summarize, analyze, and synthesize past findings, clearly understanding the current state of knowledge.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA bibliometric analysis was performed using an online search of the Scopus publications database, applying keyword combinations of \u0026ldquo;social insurance\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;natural disasters.\u0026rdquo; Due to the limited number of articles from 2019 to 2024, the search period was extended, covering publications from 1988 to 2024. A selection process was then carried out to identify relevant articles based on specific criteria: (i) concentrate the study in five areas, which are social science, environmental science, economics, econometrics and finance, business, management and accounting, and multidisciplinary; (ii) consider only the final stage publication; and (iii) limit to English language article publication. Therefore, we found 176 publications of the previous studies from 1988 to 2024. These articles were converted to RIS format files and inputted in bibliometric analysis using the VOSviewer 1.6.20 version application. Besides VOSviewer analytical tools, we also utilized the Scopus\u0026rsquo; analyze results feature on the Scopus database website.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor the qualitative review, we analyzed the top twenty relevant studies selected from 176 publications identified through the bibliometric analysis. Additionally, we searched online for further publications outside the Scopus database on social protection against natural disaster risks to explore the topic more comprehensively. The collected literature was organized based on key issues and summarized to highlight the most relevant studies related to the research topic (Martin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"3 Result and Analysis","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1 Bibliometric Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe bibliometric analysis, generated using VOSviewer and Scopus analytical tools, provided the following visualization. Most studies focused on natural disasters, disaster management, insurance, and insurance systems (see Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). Research on natural disasters primarily addressed earthquakes, risk management, economic and social impacts, and social insurance. Disaster management studies explored earthquake-related issues, climate change, vulnerability, catastrophic events, and governance. In contrast, insurance and insurance systems studies are mainly connected to floods, resilience, and mitigation efforts.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eResearch on social insurance and natural disasters began in 2006 and gained traction in the 2000s, particularly after 2017 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). As shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e, studies on earthquake-related disasters became more prominent after 2016. However, as indicated in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e, relatively few studies directly link social insurance with natural disasters, and the connection between these two topics appears limited. Notably, research in this area has been carried out by scholars affiliated with leading universities in the US, UK, and China.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther analysis revealed that four interconnected research clusters emerged regardless of the study period, as illustrated in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e through the VOSviewer density visualization. The cluster focusing on natural disasters is highlighted in green. It is associated with earthquakes, economic and social impacts, public health, disaster prevention, risk management, social support, and social and health insurance. These interconnected themes represent the core issues explored in studies on natural disasters.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe red cluster represents insurance-related topics, including insurance systems, mitigation, flooding, flood insurance, resilience, and climate change adaptation. This suggests that previous studies focused on insurance systems linked to flooding and climate change, emphasizing resilience. The yellow cluster, centered on disaster management, connects to risk assessment, hazard assessment, vulnerability, catastrophic events, climate change, and earthquakes. Although these topics have gained prominence recently, they have been studied for years. The blue cluster highlights risk reduction, poverty, financial management, public policy on environmental and public issues, and economic and sustainable development. These areas have attracted researchers' attention since the early 2010s, particularly around 2014 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2 Literature Review\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eA review of the current literature on social insurance and natural disaster mitigation reveals a significant gap in comprehensive studies exploring the specific forms of social insurance systems implemented or examining the vulnerability and risk posed by natural disasters. While extensive research exists on general social protection frameworks and their immediate responses to disasters, as highlighted by the research clusters, few studies focus on the long-term economic benefits and challenges of social insurance systems designed to address recurring natural disasters.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing the Scopus database for our bibliometric analysis, we selected the top twenty studies emphasizing the relationship between social insurance, social protection, and disaster vulnerability impacts. Additionally, we conducted an online search for relevant studies to gain deeper insights into the role of public insurance systems in disaster recovery management protocols.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNatural disasters significantly affect societal vulnerability, which reflects how susceptible communities are to harm from such events. This complex relationship involves both immediate impacts and long-term consequences, engaging multiple stakeholders. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2006 in the US spurred interest in developing a comprehensive disaster insurance program as an alternative to existing water and earthquake damage coverage. The need for a separate policy arose to create layers of protection based on the extent of damage. The study recommended greater involvement from the private insurance sector to cover mid-level losses following initial losses borne by policyholders. At the same time, the federal government would handle catastrophic losses through a pre-funding mechanism (Kunreuther, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e). A well-structured private-public partnership and vigorous regulatory enforcement are essential to manage potential future losses. The funding mechanism must also be carefully designed, considering whether contributions should be voluntary or mandatory, with a focus on ensuring coverage for low-income households in high-risk areas.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNot all disasters can be solely attributed to natural environmental forces or justified as unavoidable events. In many instances, the inability of societal systems to effectively implement disaster management and design protective measures to minimize and prevent losses plays a significant role and cannot be overlooked. (Hewitt, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). Comprehensive disaster management continues to be a crucial element in disaster risk prevention policies. Analyzing past disasters can be a foundation for developing effective disaster management strategies and precautionary policy frameworks.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs observed in Nigeria, natural disasters negatively impact households' livelihoods, assets, and overall well-being (Adeagbo et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e). The study highlighted floods as the most frequent natural disaster in the country. In addition to extensive damage to homes, assets, and public schools, communities experienced serious health-related consequences. Catastrophic events like earthquakes can have a particularly severe effect on older populations, leading to health issues and psychological trauma, which may increase the risk of dementia (Chiba et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe cost of disaster recovery is higher in rural areas despite being home to lower-income households (Adeagbo et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e). Rural regions, often dependent on agriculture, are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. The combination of natural disasters and climate risks highlights the need for agricultural innovation and insurance systems to strengthen resilience in the agricultural sector (Kaur et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGiven the vulnerable risks of natural disasters, recommendations extracted from the studies reviewed are summarized as follows: (i) Design the disaster preventive management by reinforcing related regulations for preparedness; (ii) Design the protection for the household class that is vulnerable to the disaster impact to ensure speedy recovery for all categories of people; (iii) Develop public-private insurance scheme for disaster damage coverage; (iv) Optimize technological use on database of previous disaster event and seismic risk hotspots as precautionary approach and warning mechanism (Ahmed et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e); (v) provide incentives for private insurance participation in natural disaster protection coverage, particularly in high-risk sectors like agriculture (Lin \u0026amp; Wang, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernment policy is expected to be key in coordinating disaster management, particularly in supporting economic recovery for impoverished people. Private insurance alone is often insufficient to cover disaster-related damages, as risk assessments influence premium costs, making protection unaffordable for many. Not everyone can secure insurance against natural disaster risks. However, in cases like flooding, the frequency of such events can motivate some households to purchase affordable insurance (Hikmah, 2022). As a result, a government-supported social protection program with extended coverage for natural disasters is recommended as an alternative solution (Wickramasinghe, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMany Latin American countries have established legal disaster fund schemes to facilitate disaster recovery. These funds are sourced from initial capital defined by law, annual government contributions, donations, and financial returns from bank deposits (Szlafsztein, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). The primary goal is to secure resources for post-disaster recovery. However, due to the unpredictable nature of natural disasters, public financial resources for prevention and preparedness remain limited. As a result, preventive measures should rely on alternative financial mechanisms. Additionally, the growing risks associated with climate change necessitate dedicated preparedness strategies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn China, increasing awareness and voluntary participation in agricultural insurance have significantly strengthened the economic resilience of farmers, particularly those growing cash crops, against natural disasters (Xie et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). However, a joint public-private insurance scheme is recommended for risks like earthquakes and floods. Private insurers often set high premiums for earthquake coverage, making it difficult for individuals to afford policies (Perazzini et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The study concluded that jointly managing these risks can reduce public capital expenditures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWithout sufficient insurance coverage, losses from disasters often go uncompensated, disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations who depend on limited government aid or support from NGOs. In developing countries, where disasters can severely affect communities and overwhelm government resources, public-private insurance partnerships are crucial for building resilience and establishing sustainable recovery systems for at-risk populations (Kousky et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Alternatively, private insurers can provide supplementary, voluntary coverage through premium-based plans to address social risks not covered by state-managed programs (Dostal \u0026amp; Naskoshi, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrivate insurance plays a vital role in managing losses from extreme weather events and disasters, underscoring individuals, insurers, and governments' unique challenges when dealing with low-probability, high-impact risks. In developed countries, where such catastrophic events are infrequent, public-private partnerships help manage high-consequence risks and promote preventive actions. These partnerships protect against severe losses and mitigate risk by structuring insurance premiums around specific natural hazards. For example, residents and businesses in higher-risk areas pay higher premiums, while those in lower-risk zones pay less, incentivizing investments in loss prevention to secure reduced premiums (Kunreuther \u0026amp; Lyster, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA public-private partnership insurance scheme can be developed to address natural disasters through pre-, during, and post-event strategies to mitigate and manage crises (Johannsdottir \u0026amp; Wallace, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). The growing scale of disaster-related issues, including climate change, often exceeds the capacity of any single stakeholder, as economic, social, and environmental conditions vary at local, national, and regional levels. Johannsdottir and Wallace (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) emphasize the need for further research on collaborative coordination among stakeholders to manage disaster impacts effectively. This aligns with earlier studies advocating for multidisciplinary approaches in disaster management, focusing on resilience, disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and adaptive risk governance. The concept of adaptive and integrated disaster resilience (AIDR) highlights the importance of nations and communities strengthening resilience in a coordinated way, enhancing system adaptability (Djalante et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e) (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e). Effective implementation of this concept depends on sufficient financial resources, which community-level microfinance initiatives or diverse public-private insurance instruments can facilitate.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVarious models exist for determining social insurance premiums for natural disasters. Social protection is crucial in countries with high disaster risk to mitigate the widespread socio-economic damage affecting infrastructure, public services, agriculture, and communities. To reduce financial strain, disaster risk financing through insurance is recommended. This model analyzes aggregated data, assessing the frequency of disasters and the financial losses incurred. The government pays the premium by applying the Black-Scholes method, commonly used in financial modeling and numerical simulations, which are conducted to calculate an optimal risk-sharing cost. This approach helps governments establish a more sustainable financial strategy for disaster resilience by aligning premiums with actual risk levels (Kalfin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnother scenario is using the potential of blockchain technology to enhance disaster risk insurance within the pre-disaster risk reduction strategies framework. By facilitating digital insurance contracts, blockchain offers increased efficiency, transparency, and dependability in catastrophe insurance through smart contracting, addressing existing gaps in comprehensive risk management for community resilience. It proposes a multidisciplinary methodology encompassing law, environmental engineering, insurance, and information technology to develop a blockchain-based digital insurance contract to optimize the influence of risk insurance on resilience planning. Integrating blockchain provides a unified system for robust risk data collection, reinforces policyholder trust, and strengthens pre-disaster mitigation strategies (Pagano et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRecovering from natural disasters requires a multifaceted approach to maintain household economic stability and mitigate increased poverty risk. An adaptive protection scheme is essential to minimize losses, reduce vulnerability, and address gaps in existing protections. Until the 1980s, social protection was primarily centered around employment-related social insurance, guided by the International Labour Organization (ILO) Convention 102 of 1952 (The International Labour Organisation, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). This framework targeted formally employed workers who contributed to insurance and pension funds to safeguard against income shocks caused by job loss, workplace accidents, or retirement. Such programs enhance stability by easing financial burdens on individuals and families, promoting resilience and overall well-being (Schoukens et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). However, this approach excluded informal sector workers and self-employed individuals, leaving them without adequate protection.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOver the past two decades, social protection has evolved from its initial role as a 'social safety net' for economic shocks to a core development agenda element (Devereux \u0026amp; Sol\u0026oacute;rzano, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e). The function of social security, often referred to as social protection, has continued to grow alongside national policy advancements. Davies et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e) introduced the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP), which aims to integrate social protection, disaster risk reduction, and climate change adaptation into a cohesive framework. This integrated approach seeks to reduce vulnerability by leveraging these three components' connections.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdaptive Social Protection (ASP) is an emerging approach designed to address the impact of natural disasters and climate change on social protection systems. ASP enhances the resilience of poor and vulnerable households by improving their capacity to anticipate, respond to, and adapt to shocks, thereby protecting their well-being and preventing them from falling into or remaining in poverty. Bowen et al. (2020) highlight that ASP promotes government-led investments to strengthen household resilience at all shock stages\u0026mdash; pre- and post-event\u0026mdash;by utilizing social protection programs specifically designed to support at-risk communities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdaptive Social Protection within a framework is defined based on four foundational pillars: (1) Programs, which focus on designing social safety net initiatives that can enhance resilience; (2) Data and Information, which serve as the basis for identifying and guiding the design and implementation of these programs; (3) Finance, which delineates the role of financial risk management in enabling Adaptive Social Protection to respond effectively to shocks; and (4) Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships, which describe the various multi- sectoral institutional partnerships, both within government ministries and with non-governmental partners, necessary to implement this approach effectively (Bowen et al., 2020).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndonesia's current Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) model is tailored as social assistance aimed at reducing poverty and safeguarding vulnerable populations by protecting livelihood assets and supporting the income and consumption of low-income households. The Family Hope Program (PKH), conditional cash transfers, Food Cards, and the Smart Indonesia Program (PIP) have been implemented to address specific needs and circumstances. They are funded through annual government budget allocations. However, challenges persist in executing these social assistance initiatives due to complex distribution systems and the need to align social protection with the appropriate institutional framework. Indonesia faces a dilemma between adopting a \"layered\" or \"nested\" approach to social protection. Ultimately, the country\u0026rsquo;s social protection efforts still grapple with balancing efficiency and equity in the fight against poverty (McCarthy \u0026amp; Sumarto, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndonesia's social protection policy development continues to face considerable challenges in closing gaps within the existing framework. Current policies often fail to account for the effects of natural disasters and climate change on poverty levels, despite Indonesia being one of the most disaster-prone countries, facing risks from earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, fires, and extreme climate events (World Bank Group \u0026amp; ADB, 2021). As a result, the Indonesian government must take proactive steps to reassess and adapt the social protection system to better respond to and mitigate the negative impacts of natural disasters, notably for unavoidable events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and extreme climate change.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe adaptive social protection approach has primarily emphasized social assistance or non-contributory programs as mitigation strategies rather than focusing on social security protection. While collaboration between the state and private insurance sectors could strengthen Indonesia\u0026rsquo;s social protection system, private insurers typically provide supplementary coverage for risks not addressed by state programs, with participation being voluntary through premium-based plans (Ikhsan Modjo, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). As a result, social insurance schemes continue to be viewed as a crucial element of a comprehensive risk management strategy, helping to close protection gaps, especially for the middle- and lower-income workforce (Williams et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4 Conclusions","content":"\u003cp\u003ePositioned along the Ring of Fire, Indonesia faces significant vulnerability to seismic activity, heightening the risk of earthquakes and tsunamis. This underscores the urgent need for an adaptive and comprehensive social protection framework tailored to the country\u0026rsquo;s disaster risks. However, the existing social protection system reveals notable gaps in its capacity to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters, necessitating a strategic shift toward resilience-building through collaborative initiatives. Research highlights that such a framework would greatly benefit from the engagement of government, private sectors, and local communities, fostering a multi-stakeholder approach to enhance preparedness and risk reduction.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdditionally, the limited financial resources of many Indonesians hinder their ability to participate in contributory social insurance schemes, reinforcing the need for government subsidies to support contributions. A government-backed social protection system would help ensure fair access to safety nets, particularly for vulnerable groups disproportionately affected by disaster-related economic shocks. As part of the National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN), Indonesia should prioritize developing a transparent, accountable, and flexible social assistance model. Drawing lessons from countries with established adaptive social protection frameworks can offer valuable guidance, enabling Indonesia to build a more resilient and responsive social protection system. Through these measures, Indonesia can better safeguard its population, mitigate poverty driven by disasters, and cultivate a society resilient to future challenges.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis paper is the result of close collaboration, with each author playing a vital role in shaping the study and bringing it to completion.Concept and Design: Author 1 and Author 2 led the way in shaping the research idea and designing the overall structure of the study. Their input was crucial in defining the focus and objectives.Literature Review and Analysis: Author 1 took the lead on conducting the literature review and bibliometric analysis, diving deep into existing work on natural disasters, poverty, and social protection.Data and Insights: Author 1 handled data collection and analysis, ensuring the research was grounded in strong, relevant evidence. Their insights helped guide key conclusions.Writing and Drafting: Author 1 and Author 2 were responsible for drafting the manuscript, with contributions and input from all authors at each stage.Revisions and Refinement: Author 2 carefully reviewed and refined the text, making sure the arguments were clear and aligned with the study\u0026rsquo;s goals.Supervision and Final Review: Author 2 oversaw the project from start to finish, ensuring the paper met high academic standards and was ready for submission.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAdeagbo A, Daramola A, Carim-Sanni A, Akujobi C, Ukpong C (2016) Effects of natural disasters on social and economic well-being: A study in Nigeria. 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J Clean Prod 434(September):140123. \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140123\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140123\" targettype=\"DOI\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Adaptive Social Protection, Bibliometric Analysis, Disaster Risk Management, Natural Disaster, Risk Mitigation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5751971/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5751971/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIndonesia\u0026rsquo;s distinct geographical and geological landscape makes it highly vulnerable to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, as it sits at the convergence of three major tectonic plates. This persistent exposure to natural hazards amplifies risks to household welfare, posing significant challenges to Indonesia\u0026rsquo;s long-term poverty reduction goals. The absence of a dedicated disaster-responsive social protection policy raises substantial concerns regarding the country\u0026rsquo;s capacity to address these vulnerabilities. This study aims to evaluate the effects of natural disaster risks on poverty and examines disaster-focused social protection frameworks from other nations. The goal is to guide the creation of an adaptive social protection model tailored to Indonesia\u0026rsquo;s unique disaster risks. Using quantitative and qualitative approaches, the research conducts a bibliometric analysis of existing literature on natural disasters, poverty, and social protection, tracing the development of adaptive social protection concepts. The findings underscore the urgent need for a robust, adaptive social protection framework to confront Indonesia\u0026rsquo;s natural disaster challenges. This framework would adopt a multi-stakeholder approach, fostering collaboration among government entities, the private sector, and communities to boost resilience, improve preparedness, and strengthen risk mitigation efforts.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Building Resilience with Adaptive Social Protection for Natural Disaster Mitigation in Indonesia: Systematic Literature Review with Bibliometrics","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-01-07 06:54:17","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5751971/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"832cdea7-07ae-4034-8f1a-9e036f5d14a4","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 7th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-01-07T06:54:17+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-01-07 06:54:17","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5751971","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5751971","identity":"rs-5751971","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}