Event-Based Flash Flood Modelling in Arid Areas with Limited Ground Observations

Event-Based Flash Flood Modelling in Arid Areas with Limited Ground Observations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Event-Based Flash Flood Modelling in Arid Areas with Limited Ground Observations Salman Khan, Farhan Khan, Jiahu Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7585271/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Modelling flash floods in arid regions is challenging due to the complexity of the rainfall–runoff process and the scarcity of hydrological data. This study presents a spatially distributed hydrological model to simulate hourly streamflow using a Horton-Bauer-based technique, with remote sensing data used to derive key model parameters. The final infiltration rate and the decay rate constant in the Horton equation are determined from soil characteristics. The model was applied to several storm events to estimate streamflow, and time to peak for 18 watersheds in Gansu, which ranged from 100 to 2854 km 2 in area. The watersheds are divided into 1 km × 1 km cells, with cell-to-cell flow paths determined by the D8 algorithm and a digital elevation model (DEM) to route runoff to the basin outlet. The overland flow velocity is estimated using a simplified Manning's equation. The effective rooting depth and the overland velocity coefficient, the only two parameters, are calibrated using the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. The simulated values are compared with observed streamflow, and the model's performance is assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE), Percent Bias (PBias), and Time to Peak Error (PeakT). Catchment-wise NSCE ranged from 0.74 to 0.92, whereas PBias varied from − 3.8% to 28.5%. Similarly, the Time to Peak Error ranged from − 4.8% to 14.6%. These results indicate that the model provides overall reasonable accuracy in predicting streamflow volumes and peak times, making it a viable tool for flood forecasting in data-scarce arid environments. Distributed hydrological modelling Horton infiltration arid region flood forecasting runoff simulation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 11 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 09 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 12 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 10 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7585271","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":516905997,"identity":"98108360-31e5-4b41-a347-1ee9aae8c335","order_by":0,"name":"Salman 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Observations","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"modeling-earth-systems-and-environment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"mese","sideBox":"Learn more about [Modeling Earth Systems and Environment](http://link.springer.com/journal/40808)","snPcode":"40808","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/40808/3","title":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Distributed hydrological modelling, Horton infiltration, arid region, flood forecasting, runoff simulation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7585271/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7585271/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eModelling flash floods in arid regions is challenging due to the complexity of the rainfall\u0026ndash;runoff process and the scarcity of hydrological data. This study presents a spatially distributed hydrological model to simulate hourly streamflow using a Horton-Bauer-based technique, with remote sensing data used to derive key model parameters. The final infiltration rate and the decay rate constant in the Horton equation are determined from soil characteristics. The model was applied to several storm events to estimate streamflow, and time to peak for 18 watersheds in Gansu, which ranged from 100 to 2854 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e in area. The watersheds are divided into 1 km \u0026times; 1 km cells, with cell-to-cell flow paths determined by the D8 algorithm and a digital elevation model (DEM) to route runoff to the basin outlet. The overland flow velocity is estimated using a simplified Manning's equation. The effective rooting depth and the overland velocity coefficient, the only two parameters, are calibrated using the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. The simulated values are compared with observed streamflow, and the model's performance is assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE), Percent Bias (PBias), and Time to Peak Error (PeakT). Catchment-wise NSCE ranged from 0.74 to 0.92, whereas PBias varied from \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;3.8% to 28.5%. Similarly, the Time to Peak Error ranged from \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;4.8% to 14.6%. These results indicate that the model provides overall reasonable accuracy in predicting streamflow volumes and peak times, making it a viable tool for flood forecasting in data-scarce arid environments.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Event-Based Flash Flood Modelling in Arid Areas with Limited Ground Observations","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-23 12:21:01","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7585271/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-02-11T15:34:35+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-10T02:56:10+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"302365448588538569778896601960260616073","date":"2025-09-16T00:28:24+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-15T14:51:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-12T14:11:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-09-12T14:10:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","date":"2025-09-10T17:35:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"modeling-earth-systems-and-environment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"mese","sideBox":"Learn more about [Modeling Earth Systems and Environment](http://link.springer.com/journal/40808)","snPcode":"40808","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/40808/3","title":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"fc021982-c62c-4e5c-8bc2-eaa69f96e9d7","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 23rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-11T15:39:36+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-23 12:21:01","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7585271","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7585271","identity":"rs-7585271","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}