A Data-Driven Governance Framework for the Cultivated Land Dilemma: Balancing Intensification and Fragmentation in the Yangtze River Delta, China

A Data-Driven Governance Framework for the Cultivated Land Dilemma: Balancing Intensification and Fragmentation in the Yangtze River Delta, China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A Data-Driven Governance Framework for the Cultivated Land Dilemma: Balancing Intensification and Fragmentation in the Yangtze River Delta, China Yuelong Su, Lanjiao Wen, Xiong Zhang, Anlu Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8166653/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Cultivated land in rapidly urbanizing regions supports food production and ecological integrity, yet policies often present intensification and fragmentation as a zero-sum choice. This study examines 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2023 and links a robust evaluation of intensification and fragmentation with a coordination assessment and a driver analysis based on spatial detection and interpretable machine learning. Findings show that intensification first rose and then declined, with higher levels at the periphery and lower levels in the interior. Levels are higher in southern Anhui and Zhejiang and lower in northern Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang. Fragmentation followed a fluctuating path with repeated rises and falls and shows a clear gradient that is higher in the south and lower in the north, with peaks in southern Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui. The two dimensions are moving into early coordination, but pronounced spatial disparities remain. Coordination is generally higher in the west, imbalance persists in the northeast, the center is relatively stable, and the south shows a structure with lower values at the core and higher values at the periphery. Industrial structure and road network density are the core drivers of the interaction between intensification and fragmentation, and urbanization and population density reinforce their effects. Building on these results, a multilevel governance architecture and a four-quadrant policy toolkit match regional interaction types with targeted interventions such as service-based consolidation, institutional innovations, and infrastructure upgrades. This data informed governance framework offers a transferable pathway for managing cultivated land systems under rapid urbanization while advancing equitable and sustainable land governance. Humanities/Complex networks Social science/Complex networks Social science/Development studies Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Social science/Environmental studies Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Cultivated Land Use Intensification Cultivated Land Fragmentation Interpretable Machine Learning Cultivated Land Governance Yangtze River Delta Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 11 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 22 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 07 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 07 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8166653","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":609481684,"identity":"eafd4918-cd10-4506-9e6f-16f508736ba2","order_by":0,"name":"Yuelong Su","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Huazhong Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuelong","middleName":"","lastName":"Su","suffix":""},{"id":609481685,"identity":"0949496e-5672-475e-b74c-bc76e5ccb936","order_by":1,"name":"Lanjiao Wen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABHklEQVRIie2QMUsDMRiGcxRyS7RrhLb+hRThrFToX7mbupwiuDh0CAjXpcW/oktxzBHILamuOTqIy00VXBSFKn6pxSkeHQXzDElIvidvviDk8fxNAoEQJgg1YGY9xL53G7XORsExKHRrxUJs8RYKK6ZCvN/utprjycv12xlFh01ZUXTRT3g4F05F38X5VGNC9XxWTuBhR1xFFOlhwslp7FIikzKxk0Ev5mRmiO0l5xENMplwSphTeViy/AOUfZNW5coqMnylwWeNAjdLm8JMihfrFEUghf+uDHTKZBuUrlbRosWgTJPzXqyGBxlJncreWHcfnzI16BSXVblcHXfYfXFjnkf99lWoncoG9bMi69F+Fa6pB0b1xx6Px/O/+QLsJ1/mfQ5ZXQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Huazhong Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lanjiao","middleName":"","lastName":"Wen","suffix":""},{"id":609481686,"identity":"83fbfe5e-67f0-4ded-83b4-d293abbb66f4","order_by":2,"name":"Xiong Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"South Central University for Nationalities","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiong","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":609481687,"identity":"c3d25423-2422-4016-a188-2725a585105a","order_by":3,"name":"Anlu Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Huazhong Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anlu","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-20 16:38:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8166653/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8166653/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105184401,"identity":"e1c6400e-e17f-4037-9600-c47a9185f487","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-23 08:13:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2652887,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptHSSC11.24.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8166653/v1_covered_48cbdff5-b47c-41fb-8ffb-8e92b80c9bbe.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Data-Driven Governance Framework for the Cultivated Land Dilemma: Balancing Intensification and Fragmentation in the Yangtze River Delta, China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Cultivated Land Use Intensification, Cultivated Land Fragmentation, Interpretable Machine Learning, Cultivated Land Governance, Yangtze River Delta","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8166653/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8166653/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCultivated land in rapidly urbanizing regions supports food production and ecological integrity, yet policies often present intensification and fragmentation as a zero-sum choice. 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