Environmental Monitoring of Carbon Loss and Sequestration under Urban Expansion Pressure: A Case Study from Istanbul, Türkiye

Environmental Monitoring of Carbon Loss and Sequestration under Urban Expansion Pressure: A Case Study from Istanbul, Türkiye | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Environmental Monitoring of Carbon Loss and Sequestration under Urban Expansion Pressure: A Case Study from Istanbul, Türkiye Alperen MERAL, İlknur YAZICI This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7359135/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urban expansion in rapidly growing megacities significantly alters terrestrial carbon dynamics, often reducing carbon sequestration potential and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This study assessed the impacts of land-use change on carbon stocks in Istanbul, Türkiye, between 2017 and 2024, using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification identified six major land cover classes and quantified spatial-temporal transitions. Results revealed a 3.72% increase in built-up areas and declines in agricultural (–2.03%), forested (–0.31%), and rangeland (–0.19%) areas, leading to a net carbon loss of − 1,117,034.57 tC (approximately − 4.1 MtCO₂eq). Soil organic carbon represented the most vulnerable pool, accounting for 75.7% of total losses, particularly in agricultural lands. Aboveground and soil carbon losses in forested areas further emphasized the adverse impacts of deforestation and impervious surface expansion. The findings highlight the urgent need for stricter land-use regulations, conservation of ecological buffer zones, and integration of green infrastructure to enhance urban carbon management. The study demonstrates the applicability of the InVEST model for urban-scale carbon monitoring and as a decision-support tool for achieving carbon neutrality targets. Carbon stock change Green infrastructure InVEST model Land-use change Urban expansion Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7359135","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":508127085,"identity":"705238e3-edf0-49fa-8822-79a565e90c97","order_by":0,"name":"Alperen MERAL","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA90lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdgST8cAHIMnGjlMtFDAjsQ/OAGlhxqUUm5bDPOgi2AB/M+/BxxUVd6L5pQ8/OGzza5s8HzMD44ePObi1SBzmSzY8c+ZZ7sy+NIPDuX23DduYGZglZ27DY81hHjPJxrbDuRvOMAC19NxmBGphY+bFo0X+MI/5z8Z/h3P3n2H/cNiy57Y9QS0GQFsYGxuAtvDwGBxm+HE7kaAWQ6BfJBuOHc6dcYan4GBvw+3kNmbGZrx+kTvee/BjQ83h3P4e9o0Pfvy5bTu/vfngh4/4vM/Ag8RmbAOTDfjUo2lh+ENA8SgYBaNgFIxIAAC4UVSnrzwh1wAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Bingöl University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alperen","middleName":"","lastName":"MERAL","suffix":""},{"id":508127086,"identity":"f2d4d87c-8abb-4501-94d8-2cf3f3f81d88","order_by":1,"name":"İlknur YAZICI","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bingöl University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"İlknur","middleName":"","lastName":"YAZICI","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-12 21:08:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7359135/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7359135/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":94490352,"identity":"f6b549f6-d73a-4c08-80bd-c40a202cd336","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 17:09:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1377913,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"istanbulCarbonV3ing.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7359135/v1_covered_26c3eade-d4c5-4a74-be0f-3ecd545fbbd1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Environmental Monitoring of Carbon Loss and Sequestration under Urban Expansion Pressure: A Case Study from Istanbul, Türkiye","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Carbon stock change, Green infrastructure, InVEST model, Land-use change, Urban expansion","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7359135/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7359135/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUrban expansion in rapidly growing megacities significantly alters terrestrial carbon dynamics, often reducing carbon sequestration potential and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This study assessed the impacts of land-use change on carbon stocks in Istanbul, T\u0026uuml;rkiye, between 2017 and 2024, using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification identified six major land cover classes and quantified spatial-temporal transitions. Results revealed a 3.72% increase in built-up areas and declines in agricultural (\u0026ndash;2.03%), forested (\u0026ndash;0.31%), and rangeland (\u0026ndash;0.19%) areas, leading to a net carbon loss of \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1,117,034.57 tC (approximately \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;4.1 MtCO₂eq). Soil organic carbon represented the most vulnerable pool, accounting for 75.7% of total losses, particularly in agricultural lands. Aboveground and soil carbon losses in forested areas further emphasized the adverse impacts of deforestation and impervious surface expansion. The findings highlight the urgent need for stricter land-use regulations, conservation of ecological buffer zones, and integration of green infrastructure to enhance urban carbon management. The study demonstrates the applicability of the InVEST model for urban-scale carbon monitoring and as a decision-support tool for achieving carbon neutrality targets.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Environmental Monitoring of Carbon Loss and Sequestration under Urban Expansion Pressure: A Case Study from Istanbul, Türkiye","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-27 13:30:55","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7359135/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"cb24b9fa-5d4b-4445-89c6-71f3ad54f2a6","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 27th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-27T15:56:33+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-27 13:30:55","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7359135","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7359135","identity":"rs-7359135","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}