Leveraging biological complexity to predict patch occupancy in a recent host range expansion

Specialized plant-insect interactions are a defining feature of life on earth, yet we are only beginning to understand the factors that set limits on host ranges in herbivorous insects. To understand the colonization of alfalfa by the Melissa blue butterfly, we quantified arthropod assemblages and plant metabolites across a wide geographic region, while controlling for climate and dispersal inferred from population genomic variation. The presence of the butterfly is successfully predicted by direct and indirect effects of plant traits and interactions with other species. Results are consistent with the predictions of a theoretical model of parasite host range in which specialization is an epiphenomenon of the many barriers to be overcome rather than a consequence of trade-offs in developmental physiology. One sentence summary The formation of a novel plant-insect interaction can be predicted with a combination of biotic and abiotic factors, with comparable importance revealed for metabolomic variation in plants and interactions with mutualists, competitors and enemies.