Investigating the causal relationship between Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Temperature: A Panel Data Approach

Investigating the causal relationship between Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Temperature: A Panel Data Approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Investigating the causal relationship between Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Temperature: A Panel Data Approach Marco Amendola, Umberto Triacca, Marco Valente This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5198583/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The specific details of the relationship between global warming and carbon dioxide concentration have been a long-debated issue in the climate change literature. In this paper we revisit the topic using a panel data approach. In particular, we use the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test for a panel of individual areas of the planet to assess the causality relation at global level. Moreover, we perform separate individual area-level Granger causality tests to determine the existence and direction of causal links between the two variables at local level. We find evidence of both causality directions at global level, suggesting a potential feedback between CO2 concentration and temperature, and a strong differentiation of the causality links across geographical areas. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5198583","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":367206769,"identity":"0bd458c7-76af-4e1b-a9e4-2b1ddb419f30","order_by":0,"name":"Marco Amendola","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJADA4YHDDZyDAyMDSAeD3FaEhjSjOFaiNED0nI4sQHGxaVFt/3sww8fGOyi+aWbNz5IqGFO33C7uU3iRxmDjD0OLWZn0o0lZzAk586cc6zYIOEYW+6GOwfbJHvO4XaY2YE0NmYeBubcDTdyzCQS2HiAjMRmA942PFrOPwNpqc/dD9byTyLdAKjF8C8+LTfAthzO3SAB1JLYZpAA1NL4GK8tN54xS84wOJ4740ZasUFiX4LhTJAWmXMSPDwHcDksjfHDh4rq3P4ZyRsffPj2X57vRvqDg2/KbOzZG3BYAwYGGCJsEvjUYwVsJOsYBaNgFIyC4QsABxxYSy5p6LkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of L’Aquila","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marco","middleName":"","lastName":"Amendola","suffix":""},{"id":367206770,"identity":"e4bcc92f-b9ae-4d5e-bceb-b6268441d33e","order_by":1,"name":"Umberto Triacca","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of L’Aquila","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Umberto","middleName":"","lastName":"Triacca","suffix":""},{"id":367206773,"identity":"0cd0ad58-c6da-4dce-b0f1-5ce82a45f325","order_by":2,"name":"Marco Valente","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of L’Aquila","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marco","middleName":"","lastName":"Valente","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-03 13:23:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5198583/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5198583/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":69222319,"identity":"c3ddc9b9-0f92-474e-9011-f20595d3e39d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-18 07:24:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1123050,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AmendolaTriaccaValenteSCIREP.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5198583/v1_covered_a547990c-6baa-437a-a7b9-bca1ce5fede4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Investigating the causal relationship between Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Temperature: A Panel Data Approach","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5198583/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5198583/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The specific details of the relationship between global warming and carbon dioxide concentration have been a long-debated issue in the climate change literature. 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