Social Distancing and COVID-19: Some Evidence at the Municipality Level in Brazil

The paper aims at investigating the effects of social distancing on the number of cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19. A detailed dataset includes more precise measures of the social distancing intensity in 78 municipalities from the state of São Paulo-Brazil that allowed the assessment of the impact on infections and deaths. Controlling for the labor market dynamics, medical infrastructure, and government transfers, we were able to improve our estimates. The evidence indicates that an increase by 1 % on the current social distancing level reduces the number of infections by 4.14 % 7 days later, and by 2.8 % the number of deaths 14 days later.