Complementarity of Renewable Energy Sources in Brazil: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Causal Configurations

Complementarity of Renewable Energy Sources in Brazil: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Causal Configurations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Complementarity of Renewable Energy Sources in Brazil: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Causal Configurations Hugo Pimentel Tavares, Eliane da Silva Christo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6548737/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Discover Sustainability → Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This research introduces a novel methodological approach using Fuzzy-set Qual- itative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to evaluate Brazil’s progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7.2—specifically the substantial increase of renewable energy share by 2030. Our multidimensional assessment framework transcends traditional unidimensional metrics by examining five critical dimen- sions: Global Renewable Expansion, Renewable Source Diversification, Seasonal Complementarity, Fossil Dependence Reduction, and Renewable System Stabil- ity. Analysis of historical data (2010–2024) and projected scenarios (2025–2030) reveals complex causal configurations associated with successful renewable inte- gration. Results identify Diversification of Renewable Sources (consistency 0.876) as the most important necessary condition, followed by Fossil Dependence Reduction (0.799) and Global Renewable Expansion (0.780). Perfect consistency (1.0) was found for several combinations including ”Expansion and Stability,” ”Complementarity and Fossil Reduction,” and ”Complementarity and Stability.” Counter-intuitively, future projections suggest potential regression in meeting sustainability targets despite increased absolute renewable generation, attributed to insufficient progress in critical complementarity and stability dimensions. This research provides methodologically sound and empirically grounded pol- icy recommendations focusing on diversification strategies, complementarity optimization, and strategic fossil source decommissioning. Renewable energy Energy transition Qualitative Comparative Analysis Sustainable development Energy policy Seasonal complementarity Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Discover Sustainability → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 26 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 23 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 18 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 02 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 May, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 13 May, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 06 May, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 06 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 28 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6548737","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":456142894,"identity":"1b4c761d-193a-4f29-b2d5-b4c1dec6eb46","order_by":0,"name":"Hugo Pimentel Tavares","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAr0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAzBZIcHYwMD44AOQJFLLgTMgLcyGM4jXcrCNgQQt5hLpFx9/nGch2yCRzNjAuOMeYS2WM3KKDQ5ukzCGaDlTTITDbuSkSQC1JDZI5B9/wNiWQKyWOSAtIFuI05J+TOJgA0lazrxhNjhzTMK4jecxY0PiGWK0HE9/+KCipk62nx1oy8cdRGhhYOCBJAA2EEGUBgYG9gfEqRsFo2AUjIKRCwDIVz17+tFnfgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Fluminense Federal University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hugo","middleName":"Pimentel","lastName":"Tavares","suffix":""},{"id":456142895,"identity":"fdc2546c-f4e7-4dfc-b61f-6324561b307a","order_by":1,"name":"Eliane da Silva Christo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eliane","middleName":"da Silva","lastName":"Christo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-28 14:23:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6548737/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6548737/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02480-3","type":"published","date":"2025-12-21T15:57:39+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":98814597,"identity":"98694d35-f829-48dc-b55e-e25875c7272a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 16:12:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1090190,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ComplementarityofRenewableSp.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6548737/v1_covered_872a9140-2362-4cb8-9907-1b3d22ca4277.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eComplementarity of Renewable Energy Sources in Brazil: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Causal Configurations\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Renewable energy, Energy transition, Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Sustainable development, Energy policy, Seasonal complementarity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6548737/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6548737/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis research introduces a novel methodological approach using Fuzzy-set Qual- itative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to evaluate Brazil\u0026rsquo;s progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7.2\u0026mdash;specifically the substantial increase of renewable energy share by 2030. Our multidimensional assessment framework transcends traditional unidimensional metrics by examining five critical dimen- sions: Global Renewable Expansion, Renewable Source Diversification, Seasonal Complementarity, Fossil Dependence Reduction, and Renewable System Stabil- ity. Analysis of historical data (2010\u0026ndash;2024) and projected scenarios (2025\u0026ndash;2030) reveals complex causal configurations associated with successful renewable inte- gration. Results identify Diversification of Renewable Sources (consistency 0.876) as the most important necessary condition, followed by Fossil Dependence Reduction (0.799) and Global Renewable Expansion (0.780). Perfect consistency (1.0) was found for several combinations including \u0026rdquo;Expansion and Stability,\u0026rdquo; \u0026rdquo;Complementarity and Fossil Reduction,\u0026rdquo; and \u0026rdquo;Complementarity and Stability.\u0026rdquo; Counter-intuitively, future projections suggest potential regression in meeting sustainability targets despite increased absolute renewable generation, attributed to insufficient progress in critical complementarity and stability dimensions. 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